Topic: A Simple Reason Why Bitcoin and Crypto Prices Must Fall to Zero - page 4. (Read 683 times)

These type of topics never made sense to me. Not the topic itself, not the content neither, I mean what makes someone feel like they need to open up a topic like this? That part is the one that confuses me the most. What must have happened that someone woke up one day and said that they want to write something like this?

What was the psychology behind it, and how did they act to make this a thing? Obviously OP is wrong, and all of those things that he thinks are real and data and so forth are just made up things and just opinions and nothing more. However, we know this, what made OP think that we do not know he is wrong? What made him think that we would believe what he just wrote? That's the interesting part.

Well, that was a fun read, even though it was a little...inaccurate. Let's start with your assertion, which I will call "real and speculative demand," and then we can go on to the market's actual supply and how it compares to your prediction. I agree. But It is a little too limited.

There are uses for bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies outside trade. Ever heard of decentralized finance, smart contracts, or even digital identities? It goes beyond simply "transferring funds online." Fundamentally, Bitcoin functions as a hedge against the volatility of fiat money and centralized financial systems.

It's a little corny of you to compare Bitcoin to the tulip bubble, don't you think? Furthermore, the fact that Bitcoin is decentralized, international, and immune to censorship has intrinsic value.

Your idea is stupid, but possible. Though I f***ing love Bitcoin, I'll entertain your notion and give you a generous 0.1% chance that it'll crash to zero. You're welcome. 

I disagree with your outcome here. While you can certainly make a case for Bitcoin displaying the greater fool theory, there is most certainly still uses that Bitcoin remains the best at. I don’t think it is without real demand just because you don’t understand why people want to use it. I often do worry about it turning into the definition of the greater fool theory, but I don’t believe that is the case yet.

You create a topic and want responses that match what you want. Hasn't that already happened?
Things that you sometimes find funny are also felt by other people who read them.

I'll be serious. My simple reason why Bitcoin and crypto must fall is because it is time for a decline to occur which is caused by many things. The most basic cause is because demand and supply are inversely proportional which makes prices fall. Market sales are too high, which can cause the price of bitcoin to fall.
I have tried seriously with you and you don't have to make the letters bold because everything here can be read when you write in a regular font.

Even if you're right, there's far too many people that's sharing the illusion and it's too late to be saying that bitcoin's going downhill because there are big players in the market now and I don't think that they would want the price to go down so fast and them still hodling, they're going to want the ability to control that drop and then get out with a big profit. You could've made your post a bit more organized too, a wall of text isn't an attractive material to read for many.

Another funny thing here is that besides ignoring the topic at hand, the responders offer automatic generic replies. For example, they see the word "tulip" in the sentence and they automatically assume I am comparing tulips to Bitcoin. Even though the same sentence talks about tulips in the context of difference between speculative and real demand. Then there are usual generic arguments "Bitcoin is like art", "what about fiat" or "altcoins are bs". Although it is obvious from the OP that art and fiat have both speculative and real demand, while altcoins the same as bitcoin have only speculative demand. It's crazy how people are programmed to ignore any rational arguments against bitcoin even when they express obvious realities.

I have only one question: what's wrong with you people? Why are you denying reality so vehemently?

When I imagine myself entering an antique store filled with historically significant items, it becomes clear to me.

Ancient antiques or abstract paintings crafted by professional artists always fetch high prices. And then I draw a parallel with Bitcoin, realizing that everyone has their own taste for valuing a unique history and an exceedingly limited rarity.

Have you ever pondered whether the Mona Lisa painting could be used for something more practical than mere ownership? People are willing to spend $867 US dollars on an asset that lacks tangible utility, as you implied, right?

This is what we call the market. We don't know what kind of demand suits each individual.

You are partially right, because Bitcoin and what you call crypto are not one and the same, so I can agree that sooner or later most altcoins will become worthless because they have no purpose and sense, except that they serve for pump&dump schemes.


When you go to compare tulips and Bitcoin, you expose yourself as a person who actually has no idea what he is talking about, because that topic has long since become meaningless and completely incomparable. Those of you who have been repeating the same worn-out phrases since 2009 experience a painful downpour over and over again when you are proven wrong, but that still doesn't stop you from constantly talking about some kind of doomsday for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not a tulip, a ponzi scheme or anything like that, and you've been writing nonsense on this forum for years using alt accounts - and that's the only fact that matters in this story.

What is real demand? Certainly a case where people or investors go after that thing. Bitcoin because I wouldn’t generalized it as cryptocurrency has grown in price simply because of people wanting it. The Number of users or adopters are massively increasing isn’t that a demand. Now talk of fiat currency, what makes other currency more superior than the other ones, it is simply the same demand thing. Bitcoin can be use to pay for debts since that’s the only attribute you listed about fiat if only their is agreement to use it to pay for such same thing as other commodities can also be used for clearing debts.

Yuh said something about bitcoin not been used in history, their is time for the start of everything just like how cowries where over throne by some printed papers ( fiat) and also just like the way internet was perceived not to have value, bitcoin is growing in strength.


Probably to get attention and his pissed no one is giving that to him.

It's funny how all responders here ignore the argument at hand and just write stuff completely unrelated to it. The argument talks about the difference between speculative and real demand. The usual crypto propaganda for attracting speculators cannot refute it. The difference between speculative and real demand is so simple to comprehend that there is no need to say anything more than what was said in the opening post. Let alone respond to all those ad hominem and non sequitur comments.

I'm too lazy to read what you typed so I'll just quote the part that I think bothers me. If you think that cryptocurrency does not have a specific purpose, you should learn more about cryptocurrency and the purpose for which it was developed. Right now you are like a boomer who is worried that all the devices on their wifi network will be hacked if they install Facebook and that Facebook should be deleted for that reason. What you said is just your personal assumption and a bunch of nonsense. And if you think that there will be people who care here, you should think again, because many people like you have said that cryptocurrency has no purpose and is just a speculative asset, and no one cares.

What a long and contradicting piece! I think it's safe to say that you're the most confusing person now. You just gave a more perfect reason to start making use or adopting bitcoin. If I may ask once again, does changing gold to jewelries or whatsoever change its status quo? And what about the wheat as well? Does this mean jewelries made of gold are not longer gold? Or the nutritional obtain from wheat make them less wheat? I think when you are able to justify and clarify these questions we can continue to argue about the bitcoin. You ask questions when you seem to don't understand how something works but if you chose to confuse yourself, you won't get the explanation you need.

I can give you 20 reasons why you're wrong, but I don't want to spend an hour of my life on it. So I will start with the first one and maybe it will be enough for you, if not, then know that there is a whole army of arguments behind me.




only 7% of the gold supply goes to real applications and these applications were mostly invented in the last 100 years (electronics).  Before this, the only usefulness of gold was the desire to have gold. Using it in jewelry is also nothing more than a "desire to have gold", because gold does not have aesthetic values ​​that other cheaper metals do not have. Tombac worth 1% of the price looks the same on your finger. Gold-plated any metal also. The desire to have gold, something durable, expensive, eternal, desirable, and whats most important - rare - has given it value for thousands of years. Nothing else and definitely not the use in electronics. And bitcoin has all these features and it already have better stock/flow ratio than gold and it will get even better after halving.

unless you believe that gold's entire value is given by 7% of its use and that it is generally a metal we discovered 100 years ago and before that it was worthless.

Here's a thought: you opened an account on Bitcointalk because you saw value in doing so.

First of all don't confuse between trading and medium of exchange.

---

You're still not understand about decentralization purpose, that's why you can think like this.

Bitcoin make an ability for someone to stay private and not get traced by any centralized entity as long as you understand how to do it. You will not faced any problem like wasting time when the banks employees ask many thing about your wealth and how you get it, you need to give a lot proof and if you fail, your funds will be frozen by them.

Bitcoin also give you security because banks are prone to bankrupt.

All products traded in the market have two types of demand – real and speculative. The first means that market participants desire products because they need them for specific purposes. The second means they desire them to hold and ultimately exchange them on the market. For example. A desire for wheat to make food or gold to make jewelry, ornaments, electronic components, etc. is a real demand. If, on the other hand, wheat or gold is desired only to be held and later exchanged, that is speculative demand.

The same is true for financial products. When shares are desired for receiving dividends, buybacks or funds from liquidated assets, that is real demand. With bonds, real demand is those who want to receive coupons or face value at maturity. Units of fiat currencies are created with loans from commercial banks and purchases of government bonds by central banks, so the real demand is debtors who need them to repay those loans and bonds. If, on the other hand, the mentioned products are desired to be held and ultimately exchanged, that is speculative demand.

However, in 2009, a precedent occurred. The so-called cryptocurrencies started to appear. They are virtual points that have only speculative demand. Whoever holds them, sooner or later has to exchange them on the market because there is no specific purpose for which they would need them.

A situation where something is traded on the market but has no real demand has never been seen in human history. The only reason products are brought to the market is because real demand needs them for specific purposes. Speculative demand is only a byproduct of real demand. Speculators on the market estimate how valuable products are to real demand and then pay prices according to these estimates. For example. By wheat having a nutritional purpose, speculators approximately know how valuable it is to consumers and whether prices are cheap or expensive. Similarly, by fiat currencies having the purpose of paying debt to the banks and by debtors facing foreclosures in case of default, speculators know these currencies are worth to debtors somewhere in the range of pledged collaterals. Meaning, they will not trade houses for a specific number of currency units if they see that banks take cars as collateral when issuing that number of units.

Given that crypto virtual points have no real demand, there is nothing to estimate. There’s no way to tell whether prices are cheap or expensive. Instead, speculators pay prices blindly - solely in the hope that other speculators will pay them higher, or at least the same prices in the future. Essentially, they believe in the greater fool theory and have hopes of ever-rising or stable speculative demand. The hopes themselves are based on the misconception that the points are 'valuable' because they are stored in a decentralized manner. Alternatively, the misconception is that the points are 'scarce' because crypto protocols limit their supply. In reality, however, value and scarcity come from purpose for which real demand needs something, not from storing methods or protocols. There may be a limited supply of things no one needs and an advanced method for storing them, but it is ridiculous to call them scarce and valuable because of that.

Throughout history, there were situations of large ratios between speculative and real demand. This caused market bubbles, the most famous of which is the tulip one. But never before has that ratio been infinite, with speculative demand above zero and real demand at zero.

All bubbles eventually but inevitably pop. Then, massive sell-offs cause prices to decline, often quite dramatically. The real demand is what stops prices from further decline. With crypto lacking such demand, there is nothing to stop the decline, and prices inevitably must fall to zero.