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Topic: A true Martingale system for sports ;D - page 2. (Read 1634 times)

legendary
Activity: 1568
Merit: 1000
February 07, 2016, 05:44:52 PM
#28
Arbitrage was well known a few years ago, people checking different odds from different bookmakers, so they tried to make money whatever the outcome. I know these guys exist yet, but is almost impossible to do this now, as you have to be a member of at least 100 betting sites and also pay them the fee for telling you what match to combine through different bookmakers so you can win, no matter the outcome.

I would love if such service is offered here in this forum, although I highly doubt it, no one has the time and facilities do to this these days in my opinion.

It will be very difficult to make a living doing ONLY arbitrage, and difficult to make both bets at the same time. But you can find opportunities if you make lots of bets over time. For instance, if you bet Panthers +475 to win the Super Bowl or Broncos +600 before the playoffs started, or at even greater odds before or throughout the season you coudl guarantee yourself some cash tonight.

But to do that would involve making good bets back then, which takes effort, not some sort of easy system.

Predicting the Super Bowl finalists is not arbitrage, arbitrage is not about predicting the outcome of a game or a tournament, is more about predicting the odds that will be given and wait and find the arbitrage. The easiest way is to find the arbitrage already there but in my experience it's very hard and the window closes fast if that was the case.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1000
February 07, 2016, 04:53:22 PM
#27
Arbitrage was well known a few years ago, people checking different odds from different bookmakers, so they tried to make money whatever the outcome. I know these guys exist yet, but is almost impossible to do this now, as you have to be a member of at least 100 betting sites and also pay them the fee for telling you what match to combine through different bookmakers so you can win, no matter the outcome.

I would love if such service is offered here in this forum, although I highly doubt it, no one has the time and facilities do to this these days in my opinion.

It will be very difficult to make a living doing ONLY arbitrage, and difficult to make both bets at the same time. But you can find opportunities if you make lots of bets over time. For instance, if you bet Panthers +475 to win the Super Bowl or Broncos +600 before the playoffs started, or at even greater odds before or throughout the season you coudl guarantee yourself some cash tonight.

But to do that would involve making good bets back then, which takes effort, not some sort of easy system.
legendary
Activity: 1568
Merit: 1000
February 07, 2016, 04:39:22 PM
#26
Arbitrage was well known a few years ago, people checking different odds from different bookmakers, so they tried to make money whatever the outcome. I know these guys exist yet, but is almost impossible to do this now, as you have to be a member of at least 100 betting sites and also pay them the fee for telling you what match to combine through different bookmakers so you can win, no matter the outcome.

I would love if such service is offered here in this forum, although I highly doubt it, no one has the time and facilities do to this these days in my opinion.

Although arbitrage sounds amazing in theory is very hard to do, you have to calculate lots of odds at the same time if you are really looking to find one and be quick to place your bet, a single odd changing will screw you up. And you also have to take huge risks if you think an odd will adjust in the next hours, it's like predicting odds really, for example if you know a certain important player won't be able to play or is doubtful, this could massively impact the odds either way and you can "create" the arbitrage if you foresee that before it happened.

Bottomline is, arbitrage is not too much about gambling, if you have a system and work your ass off you will make money but it's hard as any other job, and it has some risks. Gambling on the other hand unless you are a math level genius you won't be able to profit in the long term (in sports I mean, see FanDuel or DraftKings).
copper member
Activity: 1442
Merit: 529
February 07, 2016, 04:31:37 PM
#25
Arbitrage was well known a few years ago, people checking different odds from different bookmakers, so they tried to make money whatever the outcome. I know these guys exist yet, but is almost impossible to do this now, as you have to be a member of at least 100 betting sites and also pay them the fee for telling you what match to combine through different bookmakers so you can win, no matter the outcome.

I would love if such service is offered here in this forum, although I highly doubt it, no one has the time and facilities do to this these days in my opinion.
legendary
Activity: 1568
Merit: 1000
February 07, 2016, 04:14:04 PM
#24
Martingale strategy is a fail system.You cant win in long-term with martingale strategy.
Is very hard to make money with gambling.

Sports betting is basically the same as regular betting, the odds are placed by the house, they are not giving odds where you can actually win money in the long term, they are not in the business of losing money. Of course it can work in the short term since the random aspect of sports can strike at any time and an upset can happen any day or you could be REALLY good at predicting (there are actual professional sports gamblers that use math, especially in baseball and sports like that analyzing numbers only).
hero member
Activity: 896
Merit: 502
February 07, 2016, 04:04:31 PM
#23
Martingale strategy is a fail system.You cant win in long-term with martingale strategy.
Is very hard to make money with gambling.
legendary
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
February 07, 2016, 03:48:00 PM
#22
Hi guys

First of all I am a girl who like sports betting. I have been thinking a lot of how to implement the Martingale system in sports betting in real life.
I am going to show you my idea , which is quite simple, but is appealing only to very disciplined and experienced players.

Its easy, first you pick a team which has been always middle of table in standings or a bit lower, but not too much.
You start betting with 0.01 BTC and double this sum every time until you win. Odds of course must 2 or more to achieve this.
1 Bet-0.01
2 Bet-0.02
3 Bet-0.04
4 Bet-0.08
5 Bet-0.16
6 Bet-0.32
7 Bet-0.64
8-Bet-1.32

About 3 BTC needed for this if you play 8 matches, and 1.4 BTC if you try the seven match martingale system.
In 8 times playing at home ground the middle team should win at list 1 time to make sure you make profit. Profit varies at which number of bet the team wins.

I want to try this with Premier League, or lower English divisions as they have very good odds  Cool

This is only a suggestion, I am not responsible if you lose a lot of money, not my fault in anyway, you decide what to do with your Bitcoins.

You want to try and pick bets you can have an edge on rather than looking to just bet ones which fit your odds correctly.  If you can find some ratio where you can bet martingale style but have an edge you will win just like the house does against you in dice.  Overall just make sure you dont invest what you cant afford to lose imo.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1000
February 07, 2016, 03:19:23 PM
#21
Thank you guys for your feedback. So based on what is said here, I think to better not risk this high amount of BTC to try this system.
I had just an idea and wanted to share, to see reactions  Undecided

So final word is not worthy.

Any "system" to succeed with sports betting is going to require research into the stats/games and figuring out which bets are good and which bets are bad. Or finding ways to arbitrage (very difficult) so that you will make money on all possible outcomes.

Just look at what would have happened if you tried this with Crystal Palace over the last 8 games? you would have lost a lot of money.

Bookies design the bets to be +ev for them, which means they are -ev for us. You can't beat that with any system.
legendary
Activity: 3542
Merit: 1352
Cashback 15%
February 07, 2016, 03:09:51 PM
#20
Increasing it by *2 seems to be a thing for those with big bankrolls. Also, there aren't sure profits to be gained in a sports bet. This is one method to lose your money fast than any other gambling methods there is. If it works for you then great, but most of the time it wouldn't.
copper member
Activity: 1442
Merit: 529
February 07, 2016, 03:04:41 PM
#19
Thank you guys for your feedback. So based on what is said here, I think to better not risk this high amount of BTC to try this system.
I had just an idea and wanted to share, to see reactions  Undecided

So final word is not worthy.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1000
February 07, 2016, 01:07:20 PM
#18
First, martingale is stupid, period.

Second, it is especially stupid for making money line bets, especially on a sport like soccer.

The only reason martingale "works" is because the odds and the payouts are (close to) 50/50 2x. Each soccer match has different odds and payouts, and that needs to be factored into whatever you are doing. What happens if the team you pick has a long losing streak? Or what if the schedule is such that the only games that they win have a lower payout than 2x?
legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1000
February 07, 2016, 01:01:45 PM
#17
Hi guys

First of all I am a girl who like sports betting. I have been thinking a lot of how to implement the Martingale system in sports betting in real life.
I am going to show you my idea , which is quite simple, but is appealing only to very disciplined and experienced players.

Its easy, first you pick a team which has been always middle of table in standings or a bit lower, but not too much.
You start betting with 0.01 BTC and double this sum every time until you win. Odds of course must 2 or more to achieve this.
1 Bet-0.01
2 Bet-0.02
3 Bet-0.04
4 Bet-0.08
5 Bet-0.16
6 Bet-0.32
7 Bet-0.64
8-Bet-1.32

About 3 BTC needed for this if you play 8 matches, and 1.4 BTC if you try the seven match martingale system.
In 8 times playing at home ground the middle team should win at list 1 time to make sure you make profit. Profit varies at which number of bet the team wins.

I want to try this with Premier League, or lower English divisions as they have very good odds  Cool

This is only a suggestion, I am not responsible if you lose a lot of money, not my fault in anyway, you decide what to do with your Bitcoins.

This martingale will fail if you are betting on Chelsea to win. I remember Chelsea not winning most of their games from the start of the season till now. You could have easily got busted if you do that in sports.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
February 07, 2016, 12:53:38 PM
#16
It could work but if for some reason the team you picked fails to win atleast one time during those 8 bets then you're down 3 BTC. It is risky, I bet on sports a lot and I'd say there are other better/less-riskier ways of making money with it.
If you do this method on top teams for example in soccer like Bayern Munich, Barcelona, real Madrid and Paris saint Germain which they dominated the league you won't lost that much in 3 weeks consecutively,  the odds are pretty low around 1.3 or less but it's almost guaranteed just try it .

It only takes one lose to set you back a good amount though. These times do eventually lose or draw. Don't forget that!
Then tripled the bet amount to set it back to previous profit, pretty simple as i practiced this lately.
Don't forget too a teams like I've mentioned above rarely get lost or draw that's why their odds always low, they dominated the league.
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1723
Up to 300% + 200 FS deposit bonuses
February 07, 2016, 12:30:32 PM
#15
It sounds good but its highly unlikely you will be able to achieve that many wins in a row. It doesn't seem so much different from regular dice unless you got better odds at sports.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
February 07, 2016, 12:21:28 PM
#14
but would it really work Huh
I think it must in short term, however, still dunno in long...
copper member
Activity: 1442
Merit: 529
February 07, 2016, 12:14:33 PM
#13
I mean you should make just a simple win in 8 matches where the team plays at home, English division 1 or 2 I have checked that rarely a team of middle standings will not win for 8 consecutive wins. If you win at lets say 3rd try which is 0.04 BTC, you start again with another team, another championship and starts over from 0.01 BTC.

Of course if you do this with known teams, well its much more probable that you win early. After each win start over.

And yes it should be 1.28 BTC the 8th time, my error.

And yes its a big risk through this strategy, but remember this is gambling, nothing is guaranteed.
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1000
February 07, 2016, 11:56:22 AM
#12
It could work but if for some reason the team you picked fails to win atleast one time during those 8 bets then you're down 3 BTC. It is risky, I bet on sports a lot and I'd say there are other better/less-riskier ways of making money with it.
If you do this method on top teams for example in soccer like Bayern Munich, Barcelona, real Madrid and Paris saint Germain which they dominated the league you won't lost that much in 3 weeks consecutively,  the odds are pretty low around 1.3 or less but it's almost guaranteed just try it .

It only takes one lose to set you back a good amount though. These times do eventually lose or draw. Don't forget that!
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
February 07, 2016, 11:53:13 AM
#11
It could work but if for some reason the team you picked fails to win atleast one time during those 8 bets then you're down 3 BTC. It is risky, I bet on sports a lot and I'd say there are other better/less-riskier ways of making money with it.
If you do this method on top teams for example in soccer like Bayern Munich, Barcelona, real Madrid and Paris saint Germain which they dominated the league you won't lost that much in 3 weeks consecutively,  the odds are pretty low around 1.3 or less but it's almost guaranteed just try it .
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1000
February 07, 2016, 11:34:36 AM
#10
Quote
Its easy, first you pick a team which has been always middle of table in standings or a bit lower, but not too much.

It's not as easy as you think. You can't just pick a team, you have to do some serious research. This might have a chance at working if you're a professional handicapper but if not, you would have a better chance at provably fair dice.

Quote
Odds of course must 2 or more to achieve this

You usually have less chance of winning when odds are 2 or more. So when betting blind, theoretically you would lose more times then win which means the sample size should be much greater then 8.
legendary
Activity: 2030
Merit: 1030
Privacy is always important
February 07, 2016, 11:27:45 AM
#9
This is not a great methode for winning you the best chance to win always have a low odds so there is no need to do odds x2 you can win beter if you aim bet with low odds
Good idea but this is not the best way to win straight sometimes you will lose so if you do the martingale i think you will not lose if you follow this method.
But it will still base in luck and there's no perfect strategy that you can win straight..
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