Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated] - page 106. (Read 771280 times)

Lol, thanks wasubii, it has a lovely sheen now.  Here's the thing, I don't have the finances right now to commit to a deal however in a couple of months that will have changed.  As your price is so good, I am about to pm you with an alternative to btc and would be interested to know your thoughts.  Perhaps we might still do a deal?

There are some here who'll bitch that questions like that are typically asked and answered before one commits to contracts, but not I.

Is/Will the 28nm full custom chips be made in parallel (or roughly in parallel) to the 55nm chips?

Will the chips be overclockable?

Are there any plans to release another balance sheet in the new future?

Good info, just getting ready to do this myself.

FIFY...



in order to get an idea of the kind of money to be made from chip sales (projected to be $40 mil this year), here's some research I did on the direct chip selling from ActM competitors (which currently have working chips and products they are selling and delivering).  Avalon has been selling their 55nm chips for quite some time now.  they currently sell for 15BTC for a reel of 2500 (http://avalon-asics.com/).  that's 0.006BTC/chip.  their chip is rated at "1.5-1.6 GH/s at 1.0V with 2.5W per GHs" (on the high side of 55nm chips).  that's currently $5/chip, so $3.33/Gh.  Bitmain also started selling their 55nm chip in December (same chip they use in their 180Gh/s Antminers) which is rated anywhere from 1.6Gh/s at 1.07W all the way to 3.2Gh/s at 5.2W (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitmains-bm1380-chip-is-open-for-ordering-10000-chips-for-999btc-36btcth-364236).  they were selling 10000 chips for 100BTC, which is 0.01BTC/chip, which is $8/chip or $2.50/Gh.  I'm sure the prices are going to come down soon (if they havent already), or possibly they will just be replacing it with their new 28nm chips soon.  if ActM had chips available to sell and deliver now the prices would have to be somewhere in the same range that Avalon is selling their slower chips - around $5/chip or 0.0058BTC/chip for bulk sales.  in order to sell $40 mil of these chips it would take 8 million chips @ $5/chip (remember that in just 3 days this chip is technically worth ~25% less due to difficulty change, and therefore could/should technically sell for less).

So my 1st question is what price can ActM mass sell these 1.9Gh chips and still be profitable?  of course that will be speculation now because we cannot be certain what the value of bitcoin will be when the chips are released, but we still need to know projections at current bitcoin prices with adjustments for difficulty changes for when the chips are expected to be available for sale.

2nd question, and probably more important, when will the datasheet/reference design be available for those would would buy the chips to make use of them?  will this be done in time to allow timely manufacturing of boards for these massive projected chip sales?

Polished and offered via PM. Look forward to your reply

EDIT: Not that i want to scupper my own chances of selling these shares, but do you guys actually know what is going on over at Avalon? They have 55nm chips IN STOCK and shipping within 3 days. They are 1.6Gh/s at 2.5w. They have access to the cheapest fabs in the world (China) and they will continue to sell chips until the price is driven down to COST. They have a proven board design and the infrastructure already in place to populate boards and ship miners. They are shipping miners right now.

They also have an improved 55nm chip in the works which will be in mass production by the end of Q1...

How in the hell do you think ActM is going to compete with that? May as well not spend millions on a 55nm design and tapeout and just straight up buy the chips from Avalon to mine with while we wait for the 28nm.

Just my two satoshis anyway - you guys do what you want.

EDIT2: Sorry Finlof, you beat me to it about Avalon. See Finlof's post below.

Polish it first then make me an offer, I might be buying more.

Wow. 1.9Gh/s chip delivered in 6 months. Please lets get trading ASAP so i can dump this turd.

I had to read the update 5 times, and check my calendar, both for year and month and for it not being April 1st already.

55nm? 

The only way this makes the least bit of sense is if UMC is as dirt cheap as they ever were and we can knock out a few quadrillion USB miners for mBTC a piece.

But reading between the lines then, the FPGA brain transplant didn't work out, we're now on full custom for 28nm, which may mean market leading power efficiency and speed, vs hmmmkay range values of initial spec.

I should have included logic fail.
You're right to think that people won't buy more chips that both cost more than the competition per GH/sec, and require more space and peripheral circuitry to run.  We're talking last year's tech *promised* this spring.  Knowing Ken, he will come up with another stall tactic and promise 90nm chips by Jan 2015.

*People here seem to think that last gen. tech is more cost-effective, with 55nm chips somehow turning out better GH/s per dollar ratio.  Either they feel that all of the competitors developing next gen silicon are insane, or

Sure, you can buy out 55nm projects really cheap now, from the companies realizing they'll be too late to the market, but that's financial suicide.  That's why that IP is cheap and available.

Yeah his argument is incorrect here. I think he is trying to express:

With Difficulty A (where A is < B ) I will buy this Chip because this Chip will generate X amount of money.
But if Difficulty was B (where B is > A) I will need to buy more than one Chip to generate X amount of money; therefore more of these chips will sell. ( I personally don't think Supply and Demand is that simple).

We will know soon.

@SebJu

Yeah I think it is far too early to be happy. Be happy when the shares are on the exchange for more than IPO price and dividends are being paid. People on this forum get too excited and then get the wind knocked out of them because they don't scrutinize the information they get. Remember when shares were .008 each? Wtf was that? That was pure manipulation, denial and overzealousness. Now those people are screwed out of their money (at the moment) and you guys are going to wound up getting them super happy for it to happen again.

The same number of bitcoins get rewarded to miners every day so when it come to mining ourselves, which is only one way that ActiveMining makes it's money, it is better to think in terms of, 'what percentage of the global hashing network can ActM command?'.

Remember that the difficulty affects all miners equally.

OK.  I guess it's "can't math."
Amazing Company.
Amazing Investors!

I just want you to know that when the money is tight, the budget option isn't even selected some times, (necessities come first). BTC mining is not a necessity like a car is, its a luxury in a way. And when people don't have money, they forgo luxuries.

Now I must agree I believe more people will select the cheaper option than the more expensive option. There is less money involved so if it falls through people don't feel as bad.  

If the shares were trading, I'd say manipulation.  They're not, so I'm left with "hysterical denial" and "can't math."
Your choice.

Ken.  Ill be at the bitcoin confrence in Miami on Friday through Sunday.  If there's anything you want me to convey for you there let me know via PM  Thoughts, ideas, word of mouth etc...

Not if we sell chips. The higher difficulty goes the more that chips will be in demand. If difficulty stayed the same demand for chips would be very low.

Chips are the new shovels. And we have an excellent budget option on the way AND a top notch 28nm soon after.

Thats it pretty much. I dont see why shareholders rejoice. Difficulty is the biggest enemy and each month we start to mine later our profits are cut 50%. Each month.