Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated] - page 325. (Read 771566 times)

Or just look at what KnC sold and assume that every other manufacturer of 28nm out there can do the same in the same period of time (I'd argue they cannot) so this should be a high estimate.
You have HashFast, Cointerra, KnC, Blackarrow, Bitmine, ActM, BFL. If all of them sold 3PH during every batch (every 1.5months) we'd be adding ~56PH by beginning of April.

If you think Bitfury, Avalon, "Clam", "AntMiner", ASICMiner, etc.. can maybe do 1/2 of that with their nodes then add another 20-25PH to that.

For a total of 5PH (Currently) + 56 + 25 = 86PH maximum by April

However we know a lot of these 28nm companies are going to be delayed til the end of December, their batches suggest they won't be delivering 3PH per batch, and some might not even make it.

Oh and by the way let me AGAIN let you try to comprehend where you believe we will be at 120PH in April

120PH = is over 17B difficulty I believe (Just did a quick guestimate) which is >24x where we are at now.

It would take >218,000 Jupiters to reach that. (They sold ~5,000 in their first batch)

Only 43 batches to go!

Bargraphics... take some time and look over the calculations yourself. I don't claim to have the science to predict the hash rates in 3-6 months. But the trends are solid enough to see what is happening. I didn't make a statement in stone either.... *If* the hash rate continues to double (as current trends have shown)...

Look what I am saying is simple... with a large amount of hash rate on the horizon as we near the current technical limitations (28m/20nm etc) the average joe is going to be squeezed out of the mining. The fact that ActM has access to things at their cost gives a solid advantage over those purchasing from KnC.

I'm not discounting the impact KnC has on things either... but I believe their impact on the hash rate will be brief... they will have very strong sales for 3-6 months and things will start to slide.

because ROI predictions don't take into account things like ... unpredictability?

A valuable calculation could be getting the actually adjustments per diff change for the last year or so, and finding what the historical data really shows.

Absolutely yes

I absolutely hate people like you that come in here and slap genesis block calculations down.

If the hashrate doubles every month, we'll be at 10PH by the end of december, 20PH by end of January, 40PH February 80PH by march and 120 by april.

Does this even look realistic to you?

Using words like "Double" or "Percentage" "every month" is extremely lazy, please come back when you have some sort of proof for your claims. (You won't be back because there is none, every manufacturer out there would have to deliver 10PH worth of equipment by april to reach that)

Good for you... what's that have to do with the network hash rate doubling monthly and future calculations showing ROI being negative?

Really?  I made ROI x 3 with USB block eruptors. 

Based on that time frame... the ROI doesn't look that great.

The reality is for all mining operations; if the network hash rate continues to double every month no one is going to make any ROI in the near future.

>The new boxes, which will ship “end of winter/early spring”

http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-pre-orders-next-asic/

This is our competition, already moving on past 28nm.

Ken, where are our miners?

This code is a mess, it was just a prototype and I was going to fix the mistakes and write it into a javascript and html but I have no time at the moment due to family issues.

If you know Matlab feel free to fix it up.

http://pastebin.com/ehQRcCXV

(Here is the function hashrate calc http://pastebin.com/f4eVBbTk, the input in the code is 5 for terahashes as the output)

The model assumes an exponential curve for reducing TH/s price over the time period and increase the Bitcoin price over the time period. The difficulty changes are in percent per diff and can be made to increase or decrease the change over a period of time.

The mode accepts any percent value for reinvestment, if reinvestment occurs the dividend / reinvestment percent is turned into the modelled fiat price at that time and then used to purchase TH/s at the price in the model (Note that TH/s price and BTC price are being modelled on each loop and are always changing)

Some variables are not used.

It is a mess and I wanted to really clean it up and write it into a website or codepen but unfortunately I am no longer able to do this for the next few weeks.

-----

Results, if people want me to plug in different values just ask, I have the time to rerun the program with different variables, also if you want the math fixed let me know (via PM if you don't want to clog up the thread)

I don't care if no one uses it I made it for myself.

In short the model shows that if TH/s costs us at first $6000 reducing to $2000 over 2 years, and reinvestment is 50% and Bitcoin keeps rising at a similar rate, if difficulty increases continue around 25% every retarget without slowing down, we will never make our bitcoin back but will make a good USD profit.

If difficulty changes are happening like 5%+ every retarget in 2 years, then we make a bitcoin profit. (Let alone a USD one!)

Also the model has reinvestment set to every 4 weeks, this is a variable and can be changed, 4 weeks might be too fast but I figure eASIC is all about fast turnaround.

If reinvestment time is 3 months, we really fail badly.

Guys, again, while not spelled out I feel that it isn't hard to deduce that on Nov. 30th we will get information from Ken.


We already know we're getting the ActM financials on the 30th. It's not a stretch to assume that this other information Ken has said would be "in November" will also happen on this date.

Honestly, Ken's silence has value. Any information that we can give our competitors gives them more foresight on how to compete. It's tough that we don't know everything that's going on, but that's just the nature of a new company in a competitive environment. Like Bargraphics says, just be patient and professional. Ken's busy, he's not sitting on a couch eating cheetos all day and reading the forums taking pride in not answering everyone's questions. I'm confident that when Ken feels it's appropriate for the information to come out, then he'll make some announcements. And he hasn't said anything other than he'll make announcements in November, and we all hoped it would have been earlier in November, but we've still got a few days til the months over.

I asked Ken specifically about the state of the miners and he told me "there will be an announcement this month (November)".

The principal of what you are saying is 100% correct however for whatever reason in the unregulated securities marketplace this seems to be the normal. I'm positive Ken knows what he is doing is lackluster to use choice words and he chooses for it to be this way for some reason or another. We literally have our hands tied as shareholders, you and everyone else knew this is how the marketplace currently was and is and should have expected as such even if in the back of your head you kept hoping/dreaming it would be different.

I'll say what I've always said and that is that we now must enjoy the ride. Nothing we say/do on here will change the direction he chooses to take the company or the information he relays to shareholders.

Two good posts hazy. With our shares in limbo we are all just passengers at this stage.  Let's keep a lid on it until we all see December on our calenders. Only then, if there's no news, should we start asking why.

We were told there was going to be a major update in November and there's still time for that. If December rolls around and there's still no update then we're all well within our rights to be disappointed with the company, but until then we need to be patient.

I personally think that the lack of information coming from Ken is not very professional. The shareholders financed this company and yet we are told nothing.