Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated] - page 320. (Read 771288 times)

I'm sorry DTS but you are talking overly-dramatic nonsense. Nothing there gives us any stats which we can work off. You are just stating your personal belief - based on what?

all these estimations and calculations don't mean a thing if Ken decides to not involve us in any profit taking, do any of you realize this?

We must keep reinvestment at least 50% no matter the bitcoin price.

The matlab model I posted had an ever increasing bitcoin price with reinvestment still at 50% and showed that we are going to be very much on the edge of maintaining our hashrate.

If bitcoin goes higher and higher, it is in our best interest to keep on investing 50% no matter what, because we need to expand our mining ability as much as possible.

In the long run we make more money keeping reinvestment at 50% and above, if we ever drop below 50% the competition will destroy us.

The good news is that we will make a lot of dividend, but I urge shareholders to encourage Ken to never drop the 50% reinvestment even if Bitcoins are $500,000 each. We must keep reinvesting.

Please do not drop below 50%, please.

You mention keeping the reinvest fund on course with the same amount of fiat if bitcoin increases, unfortunately this will ruin our company in just a couple of months. If bitcoin price increases we have to take advantage and keep 50%.

Get out a calculator or write a program to do the modelling yourself. You will see that if we do what you say, drop the percent of reinvest to keep the fiat amount the same when the bitcoin price rises, we will fall behind fast.

Please see the matlab model I made, it really shows all of this.

(Even reinvesting 50% when bitcoins are growing up to $10,000 over a year or two still does not guarantee we maintain our percent of the network.)

TL:DR

My model shows in the long run we make more dividend keeping reinvestment at 50% even if bitcoin prices keep rising. If we opt for more bitcoin dividend now whilst rising bitcoin prices we fall behind fast

It's an interesting line of enquirery.

Should we keep spending 50% of mined BTC on reinvestment untill we have X % of network or should we focus more on paying out divs.

I'm guessing there is a fairly complicated calculation to do with cost of assembly and lead-time, cost of hosting equipment, as factors all of which are only known by Ken.

Now this is a question we can ask Ken; is the dividend reinvestment dynamically pegged to USD, or will it remain 50%.

But the more we put in the more we get back. With BTC on the rise our second batch has the potential to be far greater than the first - if we do keep reinvestment at 50% we can continue the snow ball effect. I feel this might be a crucial time to carve out some territory of the network, and i don't think that can be accomplished with a timid reinvestment strategy.

Nice that you are keeping this table up to date 4justice

A couple of quick points-

1) Up to 5.5 months there is no extra '15Mill shares div effec' so the first 5.5 months will probably see the highest share prices that we ever will for ACtM. Once the 0.0025 has been paid out share price will obviously dip to reflect reduced divs.

2) You have kept the reinvest percentage at 50 - but it is likely to fall. Our costs are in FIAT so if BTC doubles we would only need 25% of mined BTC instead of 50% to keep the reinvest fund at the same level (in USD terms). So If BTC goes to 3k by end of February we would only need a third as much BTC to keep the reinvest fund on course. So the time to full 0.0025 div payout per share should be less than 5.5months as a result.

btw at what level of USD/BTC did Ken think 50% was the necessary reinvest percentage? BTC has almost doubled since then hasn't it (?) so perhaps the 50% figure is even now too high? At 50% we will be spending 1.577Mill USD in month 3 on the reinvest fund if BTC stays at 1k. If BTC is at 3k by then, that figure will be 4.731Mill USD.

It accounts for 40% difficulty increases per month, which may be a little optimistic. It isn't accurate for the dividends after .0025, didn't throw that if statement in there.


Understandable. It's just a model, nobody knows how things will turn out exactly. I'd assume that we can get rigs at a cheaper rate than what ACTM retail is, and I think we have more than 1M USD in reserves.

I meant that I find it unlikely that we will get 10-12% of total hashing power.
I have no math to back it up, just that we have a lot of competition and 10-12% is a lot.

No dividends has been payed out since this post.

very very close to zero.  In other words, insignificant

It's in the thread.

how much of the .0025 has been repaid so far?

anyone have an idea?

FTFY

Does this take into account difficulty and the extra 15million shares dividends will be paid to after 0.00025 is received as dividends?

Seems very optimistic.

I think he meant the .02-.04....

How is it highly unlikely? Which parameters do you not agree with?

Obviously, there is no calculation for power consumption, rent, general overhead. Manpower and electrical power will be limiting factors.

I'd guess more like .02-.04 if we get that kind of network %.
Highly unlikely, although a nice wet dream ..

.0025/share payed out in 5.5 months. If that's the case, you can bet the share price will be at least .01.

The depressing fact is I literally just did that (except I went for $1,100...)

Shoot me now.

The guys are giving you good advice DTS.

You are asking us to understand how you feel, but really you don't understand that we all feel the same way.

Everyone is looking for confirmation that their money is safe.  Everyone wants to be able to calculate their divs and everyone wants to know the future potential for share price.

You are not alone, we are all in the same boat.  So please, for everyone else's sake stop posting these worried and panicky posts.  We don't want to have to throw you overboard.