I think we already had the crash as the price dropped 50% from its high, this is just the hopefuls getting back in. I'm not sure what those trend lines show. I see people drawing trend lines all the time that have no connection to reality. I expect another massive sell-off soon enough.
This "bubble" is behaving a bit different than the previous ones post-crash.
Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated] - page 338. (Read 771302 times)
November 21, 2013, 12:51:22 PM
November 21, 2013, 12:44:09 PM
A fun relevant quote:
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Let's just let this dead horse lie, Ken will do as he wants regardless of what we speculate on this thread.
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Let's just let this dead horse lie, Ken will do as he wants regardless of what we speculate on this thread.
1) That quote is very very well known. It is used completely out of context here so doesn't really help us - except to let us all know that you are aware of it.
2) I don't think you should be deciding when we stop talking about a particular topic - especially when it is a topic raised by another poster. If it's your own topic that would be fair enough.
3) Ken has always listened to ACtM holders on here. The company is structured as it is because he listens to his shareholders.
I believe we have a fundamental disagreement between each other due to what we've already experienced/accomplishments we've done in our lives.
Please carry-on off topic even though there is a thread dedicated to speculation on ActM/BTC prices/when to sell/etc...
November 21, 2013, 12:41:56 PM
Is there a thread in the speculation forum that Ken can follow?
Not sure to be honest, I'm sure you can find a thousand views on it. I'm trying not to have a 'view' as much as just looking at the chart, seeing what has happened recently to this currency, drawn on the obvious channel lines and seeing where it could realistically go. We could say yes it could be $4000 next month but the history (chart) has to support that possibility. Right now it doesn't. Tomorrow it might.
November 21, 2013, 12:32:39 PM
"Lets only sell when we have to" we have the most safest way of maximising the value of those coins.
Sure. All of my posts have been based on the notion that we do need to sell these holding within the next month or so to finance chip runs.
If we don't need to do that they may be worth more in 6months than today agreed. But that is the point I made. The last time we had a new high it took a full 6 months to get back there ($260). If we can't afford to hold these coins for up to 6months then we need to sell them at the best price in the mean time. So to see when you will get the best price you should look at the chart and at BTC developments/news. So I'm looking at the chart.
Fair enough. I feel like we both have somewhat valid positions, and if the price goes batshit and drives past $2,000 I would not hold the coins I have left personally. But when dealing with company money it's a lot of responsibility. I guess it comes down to how Ken feels in predicting when the true crash will be. Is there a thread in the speculation forum that Ken can follow?
November 21, 2013, 12:28:28 PM
A fun relevant quote:
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Let's just let this dead horse lie, Ken will do as he wants regardless of what we speculate on this thread.
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Let's just let this dead horse lie, Ken will do as he wants regardless of what we speculate on this thread.
1) That quote is very very well known. It is used completely out of context here so doesn't really help us - except to let us all know that you are aware of it.
2) I don't think you should be deciding when we stop talking about a particular topic - especially when it is a topic raised by another poster. If it's your own topic that would be fair enough.
3) Ken has always listened to ACtM holders on here. The company is structured as it is because he listens to his shareholders.
November 21, 2013, 12:24:51 PM
"Lets only sell when we have to" we have the most safest way of maximising the value of those coins.
Sure. All of my posts have been based on the notion that we do need to sell these holding within the next month or so to finance chip runs.
If we don't need to do that they may be worth more in 6months than today agreed. But that is the point I made. The last time we had a new high it took a full 6 months to get back there ($260). If we can't afford to hold these coins for up to 6months then we need to sell them at the best price in the mean time. So to see when you will get the best price you should look at the chart and at BTC developments/news. So I'm looking at the chart.
November 21, 2013, 12:18:56 PM
Why? Because day trading loses money
I agree largely with that. But I'm not suggesting day-trading with ACtM holdings. Not at all. I'm just saying that when price is swinging by 40%+ per day and you have 1.4k BTC to convert you need to pick the right time.
We are talking differences of up to $500,000 when converting 1.4k BTC at a price of $600 or $240
We can't know for sure where the price is heading. The only thing true of Bitcoin price so far is that over the long term it has traditionally increased. So by taking the only true thing about the Bitcoin price so far and using that to establish: "Lets only sell when we have to" we have the most safest way of maximising the value of those coins. Even though selling high could make us $500,000 more. I suggest that risk is not worth the gain, because the chance that holding ends up the better choice will be more often that not.
The above is just based on my observations.
November 21, 2013, 12:18:28 PM
I think keeping them as Bitcoins until we need them to be converted is the best bet. Why? Because day trading loses money and trying to guess the best "out" is a waste of time. Overall Bitcoin goes up so leaving it until the last minute to sell is the safest option, it's possible that you get unlucky and the price drops at that time but that is the nature of the market.
TL:DR, Don't day trade, don't guess the market, just keep them until you need fiat.
EDIT: Also by doing this Ken does not have to worry about the wrath of the shareholders if he gets them into fiat at a bad time, because the money was needed and that would not change. If instead Ken starts guessing the market and fails, then everyone is going to be angry he lost money.
If Ken's algorithm for selling the Bitcoin is to wait until its needed, there is no room for error, because shit happens and you move on. If Ken's algorithm is sell high, I promise you everything will go totally wrong.
I used to day trade, but stopped because its stupid hard. I left that game with a small "not worth my time and hassle" profit and have never looked back.
TL:DR, Don't day trade, don't guess the market, just keep them until you need fiat.
EDIT: Also by doing this Ken does not have to worry about the wrath of the shareholders if he gets them into fiat at a bad time, because the money was needed and that would not change. If instead Ken starts guessing the market and fails, then everyone is going to be angry he lost money.
If Ken's algorithm for selling the Bitcoin is to wait until its needed, there is no room for error, because shit happens and you move on. If Ken's algorithm is sell high, I promise you everything will go totally wrong.
I used to day trade, but stopped because its stupid hard. I left that game with a small "not worth my time and hassle" profit and have never looked back.
Fully Agreed, this is the logical/rational thing to do.
A fun relevant quote:
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Let's just let this dead horse lie, Ken will do as he wants regardless of what we speculate on this thread. Hopefully the timing aligns with a decent price.
November 21, 2013, 12:14:17 PM
Why? Because day trading loses money
I agree largely with that. But I'm not suggesting day-trading with ACtM holdings. Not at all. I'm just saying that when price is swinging by 40%+ per day and you have 1.4k BTC to convert you need to pick the right time.
We are talking differences of up to $500,000 when converting 1.4k BTC at a price of $600 or $240
November 21, 2013, 12:09:51 PM
Anyone can trade looking back.
You are absolutely correct. Many people make money from naive people selling them bad advice by pretending they can trade by examining yesterdays charts and saying 'I would have done this'.
But I only made one 'I would have comment'.
The rest of my posts are all predictions for the future - and as I said, I am advising now for the near future i.e. next few days. The advice is hold until we see what price does around the bottom of this new channel that was established last night.
November 21, 2013, 12:07:42 PM
I think keeping them as Bitcoins until we need them to be converted is the best bet. Why? Because day trading loses money and trying to guess the best "out" is a waste of time. Overall Bitcoin goes up so leaving it until the last minute to sell is the safest option, it's possible that you get unlucky and the price drops at that time but that is the nature of the market.
TL:DR, Don't day trade, don't guess the market, just keep them until you need fiat.
EDIT: Also by doing this Ken does not have to worry about the wrath of the shareholders if he gets them into fiat at a bad time, because the money was needed and that would not change. If instead Ken starts guessing the market and fails, then everyone is going to be angry he lost money.
If Ken's algorithm for selling the Bitcoin is to wait until its needed, there is no room for error, because shit happens and you move on. If Ken's algorithm is sell high, I promise you everything will go totally wrong.
I used to day trade, but stopped because its stupid hard. I left that game with a small "not worth my time and hassle" profit and have never looked back.
TL:DR, Don't day trade, don't guess the market, just keep them until you need fiat.
EDIT: Also by doing this Ken does not have to worry about the wrath of the shareholders if he gets them into fiat at a bad time, because the money was needed and that would not change. If instead Ken starts guessing the market and fails, then everyone is going to be angry he lost money.
If Ken's algorithm for selling the Bitcoin is to wait until its needed, there is no room for error, because shit happens and you move on. If Ken's algorithm is sell high, I promise you everything will go totally wrong.
I used to day trade, but stopped because its stupid hard. I left that game with a small "not worth my time and hassle" profit and have never looked back.
November 21, 2013, 12:00:21 PM
Are you sure you're posting on the right thread?
I think Minerpart is trying to convince Ken not to sell ActiveMinings 1200* or so Bitcoin.
*Ken gave hints but has not confirmed that the Avalon refund still remains as a Bitcoin asset or if it has been converted into a fiat asset.
Indeed. Last night I would have sold at $600. With the very strong bounce at $450+ I would have re-bought at $600 on the way back up so as to not lose anything.
Every wanna-be investor always says "I could have, should have, would have" when looking back. We don't need captain hindsights in this thread even less than we need speculating on the BTC price. You are doing no one favors by trying to act the part of a day trader.
This isn't meant to be offensive, just reality. Anyone can trade looking back. Let us clear this thread for actual relevant posts and use the Speculation thread for BTC/USD Hindsight/Guessing Games.
November 21, 2013, 11:57:16 AM
Are you sure you're posting on the right thread?
I think Minerpart is trying to convince Ken not to sell ActiveMinings 1200* or so Bitcoin.
*Ken gave hints but has not confirmed that the Avalon refund still remains as a Bitcoin asset or if it has been converted into a fiat asset.
Indeed. Last night I would have sold at $600. But with the very strong bounce at $450+ I would have re-bought at $600 (there was plenty of opportunity to do so) on the way back up so as to not lose anything.
Admittedly we can't expect Ken to be a stockbroker as I mentioned before but I just needed to rebalance the points I made yesterday in the light of this significant $300 bounce up. I won't be making these regular posts, that is probably the last one as the crucial time for our finances and this significant holding of BTC is around now. Once we start hashing we will be selling the BTC within a short time of them being mined I would think - largely regardless of price.
Whether we actually need to sell the 1.4k has not been made clear so I was making 'just in case' points.
November 21, 2013, 11:50:12 AM
Yes I am. This is advice for Ken re: 1.4k of ACtM reserves, so it is on-topic.
Maybe mentioning Ken/ActM in your posts would clear that up for people.
November 21, 2013, 11:46:50 AM
Yes I am. This is advice for Ken re: 1.4k of ACtM reserves, so it is on-topic.
November 21, 2013, 11:45:38 AM
Are you sure you're posting on the right thread?
I think Minerpart is trying to convince Ken not to sell ActiveMinings 1200* or so Bitcoin.
*Ken gave hints but has not confirmed that the Avalon refund still remains as a Bitcoin asset or if it has been converted into a fiat asset.
November 21, 2013, 11:43:51 AM
Are you sure you're posting on the right thread?
+1
Keep it ActiveMining people.
November 21, 2013, 11:39:29 AM
Are you sure you're posting on the right thread?
November 21, 2013, 11:37:45 AM
Change in BTC momentum.
With the very strong bounce (up to $735) from the $470 area last night BTC confirmed and establish a strong uptrend.
As with the previous two charts I posted, this channel could hold and so BTC could trend higher from here on.
How price reacts on a return to the bottom of this channel (around $550) will let us know if price is to continue to rise (up to $1000 over the next few weeks) or break down to the previously mention levels (circa $400).
So right now the forcast is: uncertain.
Advice - hold BTC.
With the very strong bounce (up to $735) from the $470 area last night BTC confirmed and establish a strong uptrend.
As with the previous two charts I posted, this channel could hold and so BTC could trend higher from here on.
How price reacts on a return to the bottom of this channel (around $550) will let us know if price is to continue to rise (up to $1000 over the next few weeks) or break down to the previously mention levels (circa $400).
So right now the forcast is: uncertain.
Advice - hold BTC.
November 21, 2013, 11:09:33 AM
Is it safe and reliable to just wait for the site shutdown and automatic transfer to issuer?
(Site is very laggy and I can't transfer without 2factor, would rather not bother with it. But I have a huge number of shares I would like to keep.)
(Site is very laggy and I can't transfer without 2factor, would rather not bother with it. But I have a huge number of shares I would like to keep.)
I don't know.
I don't know Ukyo. There are valid concerns it seems with BTC withdrawl via weexchange so his reliability has some question marks around it now. He claims to be very very busy so will he have time to transfer all shares back to issuer? If it's a simple process on his part yes I think he will do it in a timely manner. If it's time intensive, you could be waiting a long time for your 'auto tender'.
NB 'All transfers to AMC-TENDER must be completed by UTC November 28, 2013. Only transfers to AMC-TENDER will be transferred to a new exchange.'
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3492434
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