Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated] - page 78. (Read 771280 times)

How do you know what they have planned for Q2? You mean they haven't announced that they're going to continue operations ergo they're going to pack up shop and go away? It may not be a 100% increase each month, but I wouldn't expect much less. Even @ ~60% increase/mo we'll see over 100PH by the end of Q2. I'm not trying to rain on any parades here, guys, but this is happening.

Yes, I agree.  Which plays nicely into my claim that "The top will be reached when it's unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell their ASICs."


Market saturation is an integral part of the profitability calculation.  When the market is saturated, making ASICs becomes unprofitable.

ASICs compete with other industries and the current round of miners are being delivered in fixed batches of only 5000 or so units. There are no plans at this time to produce more of these current generation miners. No one is claiming that bitcoin asics make up a significant part of the silicon production at this time.

It is not just about profitability. It has to do with market saturation and limited gains in successive generation capabilities.

We're nowhere close to production limits.  Bitcoin ASICs are currently an insignificant percentage of total silicon produced.
Sure, s-curve is real, but nothing suggests that we're anywhere close to the top.  The top will be reached when it's unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell their ASICs.
That's self-evident, and is the only point i'm making here.

But those companies have no detailed plans after Q2. And it is unlikely that their next generation miners will be much more efficient than the ones they are getting ready to release. Yes, there is enough hashing power to double the hashrate through Q2, but to see it double every month through this year is very unlikely. We won't see 36 PH until Cointerra and KNC complete delivery of their latest batch.

I'm not spreading FUD. We have seen 100%/Mo. increases in the TNH not too long ago. This last month we saw an increase of 78%, which is actually low compared to past increases. We're seeing a lull right now. It will not last. See my last post for the influx of new miners coming on the scene.

Don't go spreading FUD. Everyone knows that The Genesis Block says there will be 1,500PH/s on the network by the end of September, and they wouldn't lie about that. It's only half a million Neptunes or a million Sierras. I'm sure the manufacturers will get it together.

CoinTerra is aiming for shipping this quarter, HashFast is now shipping, BlackArrow is shipping Q2 and I know there are more already announced on top of new entrants. If you anticipate an increase in the value of Bitcoin, then you should anticipate an increase in companies wanting to enter the mining industry.

There is money, but there are technological and productive limits. There is no way to sustain the current hashing growth rate.

New players. Bigger foundry orders.  As i understand it, there's money in bitcoin ASICs.

Where is all that hashrate coming from? For example, KNC is only bringing 10 PH or less in the next 6 months. The industry can't keep up the current trend, its getting too difficult.

You're missing the obvious - more manufacturers are jumping in on the action.  Hashfast's boxen are already hitting the market.  Cointerra claims to start shipping within days.  Bitfury is ramping up its production.  BFL is bound to eventually get its act together.  And, as long as there's money to be made, manufacturers will continue cranking out chips.
In other words, though the difficulty climb will slow down, there's nothing to suggest that this slowdown will happen anytime soon.
Or that it will disproportionately help Ken's obsolete chips.

By my back of the envelope calculations ActM will be entering the mining scene after the total network hashrate has passed 100PH, potentially by a lot.

We are currently entering February around 18PH (http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/) with somewhere between 78% and 88% adjustments per month. We'll aim high and say 90% adjustments, per month. Actually, let's just say we'll see 100% adjustments from here on through Q2, it's not like that's unreasonable.

18*2 = 36PH  @ end of March
36*2 = 72PH  @ end of April - Start of Q2
72*2 = 144PH @ end of May
144*2= 288PH@ end of June - End of Q2

The parabolic rise was due to the transition from GPUs/FPGAs to ASICs. As difficulty increases, each addition of hashrate becomes a smaller and smaller percentage to the total. I am not saying that the difficulty will stop increasing, just that the rate of increase will be lower. Thus, the planning of manufacture and profitability will become more predictable. Gains in hashrate are diminishing with each die shrink and it will be that the best way to sell miners is through lowering costs through scaled-up production and not faster chips.

Although I'm largely bullish for ActM future I would agree with stenkross in that when dates are concerned I'd be more inclined to go with the latter part of estimates rather than the best possible scenario.  This is purely as a defence mechanism from totally losing the plot and expecting something that isn't going to happen which doesn't do anyone any good and turns this thread into more nonsense.  It's pretty obvious that with the 55nm chips everything that can be done to expedite their production should be given utmost priority.  I'd be interested to know if the work being done on the 55nm chips will/could delay the 28nm development.  If the answer to that is either yes/possibly then I would question the decision to pursue the 55nm.  I would like some reassurance from Ken on this point.

Regarding the share price, DTS is right and it doesn't take a troll to point out stuff that we all know to be true.  I would give a much higher long term valuation than DTS's and given that he recently attempted to sell all his shares but has clearly changed his mind this would suggest that the assumption that many will head for the exit when trading starts may not come to fruition.  IF the share price bottoms out below AMC IPO price you can guarantee that there would be a massive rush from people scrambling to buy them up.  I would sell my car and take public transport to get my hands on shares at that price.

Can't argue with that logic.  Other manufacturers, bored by profits, will stop making, selling, and mining their ASICs.  Leaving the market wide open for Ken & his awesome 55nm chippery

Edit: If there ever will be any chippery - thus far, there's none.

Adjustments have been more like every 10.5 days.

If the hashrate was flatlining the adjustment would be exactly 2 weeks.

If the hashrate is increasing the block time falls and the adjustments are more often than two weeks because 2016 blocks are solved in less than 10 minutes per block.

Correct me if I'm wrong

You have suggested that I am crumbs.
Crumbs accurately predicted the outcome of this sideshow a long time ago, when you were buying into it at the top of the market.
While such foresight is by no means amazing (a claim was made that crubs' cats reached the same conclusion), you must admit that crumbs' (and his cat's) foresight was substantially better than yours

The current scenario is quite different, in regards to potential delays, as we've acquired a working chip that is already in tape-out. I understand the apprehension, though.

~10 (one every 2 weeks).

Again, I'm not saying it will be 5 months from now. Best case scenario is 2 months away (beginning of april).
But I wouldn't count on that.