So let me get this straight. You're saying that because BFL offers refunds, you can't properly calculate the amount of risk that is involved in pre-ordering from them, and they're a ponzi? But because Avalon doesn't offer refunds, they're the safer bet? The only two options are either offer refunds, or ship products? Avalon doesn't offer refunds, so it's a 100% guarantee you will get a product? But BFL does offer refunds, so there's a chance you won't get your product, so it's not smart to buy from BFL? So. Fucking. Stupid.
Actually, not so "stupid".
Think back to what happened with bASIC.
Yes, there you go, they collapsed because of delays (same as BFL) and open ended refunds availability (again same as BFL).
Keep that in mind. bASIC is a practical outcome of this in actual practice.
Anytime you embark on something and you tap the pool of cash that isn't technically yours yet AND offer open ended refunds, there is a risk of collapse.
BFL has been asked several times if they have each penny accounted for. They said yes. They were asked if they had dipped into these funds, they have always maintained they never have nor will do so.
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So in theory there is no risk as long as you know of the health of the Venture Capitalist. Of course, no one is told who provided the venture capitali.
So...you sorta have to go on faith that this is actually true and is [supposedly] the case.In the case of bASIC, a good number of customers were left holding the bag because (as I particularly warned) they all rushed to get their money back at the same time.
Some were left with no money, and you guessed it, no product.
Had bASIC followed Avalon on not providing open ended refunds, they wouldn't have gone under. People also wouldn't have lost their money or be left trying to recover those monies via the courts.
Or how about this crazy thought - I don't ask for a refund, and they ship me a Single when it's ready? Or I can ask for a refund, and they give me my money back! How does that make them less attractive?
The only thing you have to hope is that the BFL chips work within spec. If not, bASIC v2 will happen once again.
At which point a smart company would say "no" to refunds and piss off customers but stay in buisness.
Or
Say "yes", try to please everyone, and go dark after a certain threshold has been reached in viability.
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Of course, the only good end for everyone is that the chips must work. Full stop. Any problems and I doubt there will be a recovery. So hammer the BFL forums and figure out whether things are going right in the process.
Be smart, if you see trouble, decide quickly if you want to be in the first wave of refunds or the second. *the second wave rarely gets their money back*
So don't take this "silence", make some waves and get answers. Be informed.