If we return to the question of 100% vaccination, it will not be! There is a noticeable layer of "lovers of conspiracy theory and chipping", there are people in remote areas who will simply ignore (go far, "the virus will not reach us"). It seems to me that it is necessary to strive for the maximum indicator, but the minimum is enough - these are megalopolises, large cities, cities that are ports (air, sea, auto) to / from other countries. According to my calculations, this is somewhere 70-80% of the population, which in theory will greatly narrow the possibilities, even mutations, to actively infect the population.
OK.. let's take the threshold as 80%. Out of this, 11% is already vaccinated and that means 69% needs to be covered additionally (two doses would mean 138%). The current vaccination rate is 0.3 per thousand. So at the current rate, it will take 138/0.3 = 460 days to achieve the target of 80% full vaccination. That means the herd immunity can be achieved in Ukraine only by the beginning of 2023. But there is a good chance that the vaccination rate may improve over time. If that happens, then I expect Ukraine to achieve this level by mid-2022.
Purely arithmetically yes, this is what the situation looks like.
But this is better than the situation was a year ago. There are only 460 days left before the required majority are vaccinated. The minimum necessary, in those cities that I have designated as the most important (large regional centers, transit cities - where the risks of importing the virus from abroad are high), I hope will be achieved faster. By the way, for example, Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, the city where I live - here the vaccination level is the following (official data)
Current statistics on vaccination as of 13.09.2021 in Kiev
Population 2 954 thousand
Number of vaccinated 800 591 27.10%
Fully vaccinated 777 963 26.33%
Total vaccinations 1,578,554
As you can see, the average is noticeably higher than the national average.
If you look at the regions of the country, then there are the following trends:
Low vaccination rate:
- Western regions (Volyn, Transcarpathian, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, Chernivtsi) - these are areas with a low population density, mountain villages, small towns. As though low vaccination penetration rate is logical. The average level (complete vaccination) is 7-9%, while the Lviv region, also western regions, has a high rate of 12%. but here the population lives more "densely".
- The central regions are already 12-17% (full vaccination).
The areas where hostilities are underway and the temporarily occupied territories are located - areas where there are approximately 6.5 million people - the level of complete vaccination is only 4% - 4.3%, and in the general picture, they certainly strongly "pull down" the overall statistics.
This is a superficial overview of the level of vaccination in Ukraine.