Topic: Agriculture HODL - page 2. (Read 572 times)

That is an interesting take on the global food situation we are facing this year. Food price have been rising for years now, but the rate at which the prices seem to go up increased a lot since the Ukraine-Russia war. Starting to grow and harvest your own food locally could be a good idea to reduce food prices if you have the land to cultivate it. No idea though how hard or easy it is to get your hands on some farm land. Prices for residential or commercial land are at all time highs in my country and it's nearly impossible to find something on the market right now. From a friend whose family own some farm land outside from the city for generations I know that they get letters from time to time with offers to buy the land, but they are not selling it. Another factor will be fertiliser which got a lot more expensive this year and increased cost more for farmers. In my country we saw a lot of protests from the farmers this year who are struggling to make a profit. I am not sure what are the return expectations for a farmer at the start. It might take several years to break even and get the money back for all the equipment you need to buy in the beginning. 

Well works are done easier with words than action. The very cost of almost nuts you mentioned isn't the cost of the raw nuts but the coat of it after all processing and packaging.  Agriculture is very lucrative and very much undermined maybe because of the activities involved. Agriculture isn't a one day job as it actually follows the principles of garbage in garbage out which implies that the amount of profit depends on the amount of capital and invested in it as well.

Agriculture despite it's challenges as been one of the major backbone of a thriving economy, but subsistence agriculture wouldn't yield much result. So possibly to gain over $100,000 at a time from a particular yield then one should be ready to have invested definitely more than have if the gain expectations and massive labour in the process as well.

Having a garden in your backyard can set you apart from the other, and in addition to helping you keep an eye on global inflation, you may develop the habit of planting more as time goes on, leading to a greater output of goods.

The value of firewood and wood stoves are climbing steeply in many areas.

Is it fair to say that the value of produce, plants and agriculture will follow the same trend.




Here in the tropics I have pineapple plants that are flourishing with zero maintenance. Some things do well with little care.

Personally, I used to enjoy doing labor work. I've done construction and labor work in the past. Its not a big deal.

The only thing that sucks about farming for me are mosquitos and biting insects. That's the only thing that would present a challenge if I chose to pursue a full time agriculture career. The physical work would be easy as it wouldn't be as difficult as the job I used to have.

I have a 50 pound bag of concrete outside. I tried to lift it with one hand. Wasn't that hard. I can carry stuff ok.

Rich Farmers in the world

Farming use to be a business where people get profit but I don't know of this time around because people are now looking in the area of oil business, metal and more but neglecting farming that apart from selling the farm products, it provides food for the family. Many people have been rich from farming like in the list below, it has given this set of people wealth that shows it is profiting.


Rich people from other business also do farming to branch into another source.. As there is now increase in the price of products, I think more farming will increase next year with the rate of scarcity of food in the world and high rate of inflation.

Definitely this is the right time for African countries to invest in agriculture the solely dependance in crude oil mostly Nigeria here has affected the economy. There many states here in Nigeria where Rice farming has been taking into consideration. Since the constant increase in flooding, people have run into Irrigational farming and its encouraging to see government support. A state here in Nigeria exported more than billions of Naira worth of rice. This is encouraging not just for the diversification of economy but it also creates job opportunities.

Although I don't buy the idea of agricultural HODL because it causes increase in price of agricultural produce

Agriculture is a good profession, it's a profession that gives money and also gives food. But it is not easy, I have been involved in agriculture, there is much expenses in agriculture especially as the inflation is ongoing, the cost of fertilizer, the cost of manure and other equipments is very high, apart from the mentioned above, the cost of man power that is invested in agriculture is much.
However, when the reward starts coming, you will surely smile. Harvest is always very nice and lovely. With the right plan and if you have a piece of land for agriculture it is a profession that is advisable to venture.
In the coming years most countries will surely fall back to agriculture to sustain her economy especially African and Asian countries due to the high inflation.

The better way to create a demand is stop or pause the supply.When the demand of certain products increased,it includes the agriculture.We can able to had some good prices for it.Now every where oil demand was increased due the fact,for daily three times we using oil.Then the supply of oil in many country is low.So the government procurement of oil seeds for people is one way of demand.Secondly the foreign country made a startup based on oil in demand country.So like this foreign nation earn more from us using oil.

There is wisdom in this because even apart from inflation, a lot of other factors are contributing to food shortages including natural occurring disasters. Recently there is heavy flooding in my country and a lot of farm lands have been affected, this in the long run means that we are expecting food shortage if care is not taken. You can imagine the position that people who have stored up food produce are right now which is at an advantage and to sell at any price which they deem fit. Investment in agriculture is something to really consider especially right now. There is this popular Real Estate saying that I would like to relate to agriculture, "The best time to invest in agriculture was yesterday, the next best time is today for the future".

I'm not understanding what you saying, sorry.  What is unfair? Hold ag?

Other ways to earn a profit in farming? It's pretty much the way it's been since the beginning of time. you produce a crop and sell it. It's mostly one shot.

I like the way you think. Instead of investing in crops and I shifting towards ag land ETF's. Take my cryto profits and add something tangible to the pie without much risk in crop failures.

The agriculture hodl is somewhat similar to the shitcoin hodl. It is possible that the agriculture you grow (if the agriculture is well chosen) will rise sharply in price due to increased demand and bring you a profit of many X-s. There was an investment here, not just money, but time, human resources, and so on. In the case of shitcoins, a similar investment, but only money. And there, and there, there is a chance to increase your costs, but there is also a chance to get losses. Moreover, in the case of agricultural crops, the risks are much higher due to the high threshold for invested resources and various force majeure factors, such as agriculture failure, natural disasters, agriculture losses during harvesting and transportation. That is, if we consider systematically, then there are similar moments. I would prefer to invest in shitcoins because it is easier and less risky. Better yet, invest in something else that is safer than shitcoins and requires less stress, as is the case with agriculture.

Almond trees can take up to 5–12 years to produce almonds, but Bitcoin is halved every 4 years. So, while someone who invested in one Bitcoin may have taken their profit and moved on, the farmer who invested in almonds may still be preparing to harvest the almonds.

 
If the agricultural hodl should come into play, I think it should be on more important food. In my country, maize takes only 60-70 days before it's due for harvest and maize is used to make other processed foods like;

cornmeal, grits, starch, flour, tortillas, snacks, and breakfast cereals, Ref.

As a farmer this thread is hilarious. Farming is the probably some of the hardest work you will ever do. There are no days off, summer vacations, family days... None. Your sick? so what you must work.

Remember your not making a dime until that crop sells. Many confuse gentleman farming for local markets with true ag, they ain't the same.

Agriculture is a very important resource in human life, this commodity is very promising if one can take advantage of fertile land for farming, unfortunately the younger generation now considers agriculture not a promising job, even though there are many successful people out there pursuing agriculture.
Even if inflation starts to occur, we can prepare household needs with resources from agriculture, especially if we are able to plant basic needs on a large scale.

A perfect example of what I was talking about, Disney-style planning and reality.

In your plan you've already identified the supplier, you know the price at which you will get it, you drive to the dealer, you rent your harvester and you're good to go!

In reality, you've just spent $7,500 on a grain cart!!!! Which as the name implies does not harvest a thing!
So, don't you think that the moment you can't differentiate between a gain cart and a harvester, is the moment you should look for another hobby and realize that in the future business planning agriculture and farming are off the list?  

If things would be that simple everyone would be into it, but they aren't, I spent my childhood at a farm, and I've spent more than a decade working again there after my college years for everything, from accounting to actually driving that stuff around, I wouldn't want to go back even if I would have to choose between cleaning sewers with a pressure washer and farming! And you know why? Cause cleaning a damn farm is sometimes worse than a sewer!!!
There is Disney where every animal tends for itself and only comes to you to give you milk while trees and crops grow by themselves and there is a reality where one infected animal and you have to put them all down and one hailstorm and the whole orchard is ruined not just for this season but maybe even the next also!


Everything will be a bad example if you think of making money without work!
If things were that simple everyone would, how do you even say it, not doing a thing and earning money?
But as you can see, it's more and more quitting rather than approaching this field, because it's a risky pain in the ass low margin crap!

That aside, it's one thing growing a few fruits in your 100square yards garden and having this and that and just doing hobby work on them, that works, and it's enjoyable, but a totally different thing to take care of 100 trees. If we weren't a continent apart I would have invited you to come and pick some plum fruits next year, let's see how many 5kg boxes would you be able to do till you give up and you realize you're harvesting fruit at a lower value than flipping hamburgers at McDonald's!

Its not the same. 

We know demand for locally produced food items is rising sharply due to inflating oil, shipping and transportation fees hammering food imports.

Food prices in stores have appreciated in value significantly. Rising demand won't be stabilized until store prices decline to normal values. That is a lot of volume to fill.

Competition is also declining. Most agriculture relies heavily on fertilizer derived from natural gas. Given current natural gas trends, those who know how to produce organic alternatives could have a significant advantage.





I think almonds were a bad example.

I saw lychee fruit selling on amazon for $17 a pound. There are years where I might throw away 50+ pounds of lychee as there is too much to pick and eat. The lychee tree doesn't receive much maintenance or fertilizer. Although now I am trying to take better care of it and grow more of them. Pineapples are another very low maintenance crop here in the tropics.

This isn't to suggest that selling nuts or fruit on amazon is the most profitable or best enterprise. But I think there are some niche areas where people with excess land might grow things with low maintenance and upkeep. Which they can sell to produce something similar to passive income.

As for targeted agricultural markets, I have been thinking about cacao beans. There was a case years ago where the supply of cacao was bought up and centralized if I remember correctly. That might be worth an attempt at agricultural development if its a monopolized market where prices could be artificially inflated.

Jackfruit could be a good option as I think it can produce fruit in as little as 18 months. Papayas are said to fruit in as little as 7 months. I had a papaya growing that fruited very quickly before being utterly destroyed by white flies.

Anyways hope everyone is doing well and having success with whatever they're doing. As long as supermarket prices remain high, I would guess there is plenty of space for profit for anyone interested in entering agriculture.

It is very easy to punch the calculator and estimate how much gain one can make investing in agriculture. But from experience farming is one of the riskiest businesses in the world, especially in my location. Just recently some part of my country is going through a flood disaster that has destroyed many lives and properties. Many mega-farms have lost millions because their farms have been destroyed by floods.

A few years ago I invested heavily in a cassava and corn farm. I put in my time and money to ensure that the farm succeeded. Close to the time of harvest, there was a community crisis that led to violent conflict and everybody had to run away from the community. I abandoned my farm because it would be risky to farm in a place where people are been murdered. It took about two years to resolve the conflict and when I came back my farm has been overtaken by weeds. The little plant that survived has been harvested by farm thieves.

I would rather invest in Bitcoin because it saves me a lot of time and strength. Farming needs quality time and consumes a lot of energy, hence it is better to put my money in Bitcoin and wait patiently.  

Worked in grocery retail for many years. I came to an interesting conclusion. The problem of farmers oriented to the local market (and other producers of products also suffer from this) is that the market and relations between the producer and the end consumer are large retail chains. If you want to enter the network, "stand on the shelf" - pay. The price must be as the network player ORDERS. And so in everything. As a result, the manufacturer works on the verge of profitability, and the retailer, without making any special efforts, receives most of the income.

In our country (Ukraine), for about 5 years, the practice of "food fairs" has been working. And even today, when Ukraine is under the threat of a terrorist attack from Russia, and the southern and eastern regions are largely destroyed by Russian terrorists, it turned out that the prices at such fairs are quite competitive. And noticeably lower prices in retail chains! This applies to vegetables, fruits, meat and products from them, which are made by small farms or even private producers.

Farmers have the liberty to hold onto produce, though logistically this isn't as easy because of spoilage. Secondly, prices are increasing because the cost to manufacturers are increasing, their profits are being eaten up by operating cost. I don't think the agriculture industry is the industry to generate a lot of wealth, the entire industry is propped up by subsidies.

On a side note, country's have been stockpiling their food and reducing their exports. They anticipate famine because of higher energy costs, so naturally, that drives global food prices up with less exports. If a country was so inclined, they could take advantage of a food shortage for profits.