Topic: Agriculture HODL - page 3. (Read 533 times)

It is not so easy and worthful like it sounds. It would be great if you could simply grow your crops, harvest everything and take it to the supermarket for profit.

However, supermarkets already have their suppliers who need to be regulated by the government in order to be able to sell the crops, what involves extra costs for the farmer and also for the supermarket due to taxes. Moreover, even if you manage to make the sale the supermarket pays much less for your crops than the final product's price.

Just as example, I collected eatable seeds from a local species of pine once and took it to the supermarket. For each kilogram I was paid 0,60$, while the supermarket sold each kilogram for 1,60$ in the end.

It doesn't feel rewarding. It feels exploitative and frustrating, because you had to do the most part of the job, which took time and effort, while the supermarket simply displays the products there and receive almost 200% of your profit.

It sounds easy because we are already doing that in my country, and I think there are many services like that everywhere throughout globe.

Like this: Catalogue:
Though requirements could be A-Z, most of the companies will provide almost all sort of machineries (& yes specialized too).

It's kind of new business stream. Fortunately it saves time and money for the farmer who can not afford to buy the few tens of thousand in one go! Rather rent it, use it and send it back. No maintenance too!

For example, there is also Grain Harvester which is around $64,500 (old model cost) for direct sell could be rented out at the rate of $15,000 per month. So lets say someone finishes their harvesting in 15 days then they could get away with it at 7.5k bucks.

For the next cycle anyways there will be no use for the harvester machine until next harvest comes up. So its better for that farmer to rent it rather invest that much amount at once or pay same money in the EMI's.

Like this one [ https://www.rentalyard (dot) com/listings/farm-equipment/for-rent/207714809/2014-killbros-1311 ]

So may be it's easy, and we don't really have to depend on the neighbor's machine.

Oh yeah, we had that trend here too, but haven't seen a new one in years. maybe the miracles crop search is finally over!
Ostrich farmers, chinchilla farmers, Paulownia, all kinds of berries, mushrooms, and so on and on.
Of course, the final result was fairly obvious, the prices for those were high because only a couple of producers existed in the first place but when you go on and produce 100 times more demand won't come out of anywhere and the price will eventually fall fo most under the cost. Just like the saying about the gold rush, the ones making more money were the ones selling the pickaxes.


Oh no, just no!
It's not planting a few trees and for 5 years you take a beak, you need to take care of them, you need to water them, you need to check for disease or insects or rodents that might chew the bark in winter and the new branches in spring, you need to be careful how they grow and cut branches to keep the right size and the alignment so if you think you're just going to plant them and that's it you're having the same poetic view about farming and that's as far from reality as Disney movies. Not to mention you're going to look at a failure rate, you need to take those out replant, and many more.
If it were that simple everyone would be doing it, and as you can see, not many are!


You make it sound so easy, but who will lend you a cheap machine that has been bought with a few tens of thousands just like that? We're not talking of a chainsaw that you can take a break from and lend to your neighbors for a few days, these are specialized machines that are being used at the precise harvest time, so the one that bought it will be using it for his harvest and once he is done slight chances your fruits are not already rotting in the fields, and the ones buying machines just to lend them, guess how much they are going to charge extra?

If we take into account the costs and risks of any production that requires time, knowledge and money, I wonder if it wouldn't be much easier to invest in 1 Bitcoin and profit maybe even more in the next 5 years? Of course, this is also a risk, but hazelnuts, walnuts, almonds and similar nuts are not something that a person cannot survive without, and as you say, these products will be the first on the list that people will give up in order to save for some other much more important foods.

I remember that in my country 5+ years ago chokeberry was a big hit and everyone planted it and hoped for a big profit, and today it is a profitable investment for a few, while others simply failed because the market became saturated with large quantities, along with the price which is quite high. I think the key is to find something that is interesting and that can be sold outside the local market, and for years I have known a man who produces exotic fruits and vegetables, and they say that he is doing great considering that everything he produces is sold mainly on the EU market.

Great, so farmer even gets to enjoy his 5 years tenure to do additional businesses. May be by dedicating a hectare or something for quick grower veggies and sell them in the market. The life of farmer cycles around many things but not limited one crop I believe. They can always have seasonal crops growing around the calendar and get money from it. There are anyways dozens of varieties and kinds of veggies which can grow quickly.

If they just wanna focus on the nuts then they can dedicate half land for that matter.

The prices are obviously decided after all the investments. Not everyone needs to really "buy" heavy machineries rather they can rent it on per day charges basis or whatever is trend in westerns.

However, with more poly houses and hydroponics the supplies would keep growing irrespective of seasons and outsides calamities.

Considering the upcoming inflation; I believe we already looking at the risen prices for food. It's not about farm to customer selling issues, it's freakish global economic crisis started at one corner of the world and now everyone gets to "enjoy" it.

I think it's still in the early stages of getting in there as preparation and investing in future commodities that will be needed by billions of people and will continue to grow in demand as the world changes more rapidly due to innovation, technology, and climate change.

The demand for also food will only increase over time as an increasing global population puts more pressure on our natural resources causing food shortages.

Weather patterns that are increasingly unpredictable in the future are not only a viable business strategy, but wise readiness to fulfill basic needs for ourselves and our families is what needs to be prioritized.

It could be that the food will be more expensive than the price of Gold or BTC itself.

Demand and offer!
Just as how instead of $300 per barrel of oil how some idiots predicted we went down to 80$ and they need to cut production to even keep that level once something becomes more expensive it also becomes less sought after, and almonds, pistachios, and every single thing in this exotic category are the first on the list that will be dropped by the average consumer once it doubles in prices, reducing the demand and leaving you with increased costs to revenue ratio and a ton of competition.


2500Kg for a ha, so you need two hectares (5 acres if I'm not mistaken), but that's our full nuts so I guess three times the area at least.
Of course, you need irrigation, you need pesticides, and you also need to HODL your breath for 5 years till they make any serious fruit!
Still keen on doing it? Not to mention that's the packed resell price, not what you're getting for raw product, add another 10% loss just on the nuts that will be thrown away at sorting.

Also, there is one other huge barrier, you either need costly machinery for harvesting (there are special machines exactly for the above-mentioned almonds) or you have to rely on the quite unreliable available workforce which might lead to complete miss your targets or losing the major part of your product and get you in red from the start.

There isn't going to be a food shortage. 

Media talking BS point.  Stop listening to people that lie to you all the time.

we grow more food with less land then we ever have.   slightly less fertilizer = more land use.   its simple math. 

I agree the idea is likely to see growth but how to capture it exactly is harder to do.  My idea is the tools of the trade and fertilizer especially could provide parallel to growth in demand and premiums for whole agriculture sector.    Commodities overall is a hard sector to master so Im averse to trying to hold onto any specific idea for a bullish market even wheat and sunflower oil which are subject to setbacks due to the war in east europe.

If food shortages and price inflation hit. Agricultural HODL could become a viable business strategy.

Similar to being an early investor in bitcoin. Getting in early on agriculture HODL could be a good investment.

Shopping in a supermarket we can see that almond nuts can sell for $10 a pound. When I see this, I wonder to myself how much time and energy would it take to grow 10,000 pounds of almonds to profit a cool $100,000. Does rain, sunshine and the tree do all of the work? If food shortages hit the price of almonds and other food assets could rise dramatically. Instead of $10 a pound. We might see $15 or $20. Profit margins could swell significantly due to circumstantial conditions. As we have seen with other markets posting record profits correlated with price inflation.

Depending on which zone we're located in and the climate. It may also become possible to produce niche luxury crops.

Rising cost of oil could greatly restrict foreign exports. Which could produce a high and growing demand for locally produced alternatives. Which would stack on top of existing favorable market conditions.

It is possible that there is someone in the world who will begin farming this year. Grow and sell a harvest. To produce more next year. Who will possibly become a millionaire through the process. Rising cost of oil and difficulty associated with shipping food products from overseas could all contribute to making it possible.

Anyways what do people think about this. Share your wisdom please.