Topic: AI prediction/forecasting for Bitcoin and crypto trends - page 3. (Read 843 times)

You don't need anything sophisticated. Just this:

put in hamster in and you're going to beat S&P earnings. Proven!
Also, R.I.P. Mr Goxx, the cutest trader in the world.


Yeah right, and why are you selling these magic golden goos rather than taking advantage of it and making yourself rich without a care in the world?
5 days ahead and 90% accuracy, common, if you would have said something at least dreamable you would have found yourself a sucker by now, throw in some genome mapping and supersymmetric theories to make it really unbelievable. 


If forecasting was real and with that accuracy, it will not resemble gambling at all, it will be like getting paid two-to-one odds for bets that are 1:1.1, minimizing the risks with a guaranteed 9 in 10 wins, which is not at all gambling, it's like shooting fish in a barrel and using and RPG for it. 
Crypto itself is already gambling, and probably worse than that, at least in sports you're only concerned about the adversary, there is no chance a war might reduce your funds by 75%, some twitter guy posting will make all your players miss, and it's not like a basketball match played one thousand miles away will affect the result in your boxing match.

If forecasting was really a way of making money in the crypto space, then we could also say that the crypto space has been converted into a gambling ground where anyone can just come in, make predictions, win a certain amount of money and leave the market.

But, whatever happens at the end of the day, I am not against you posting results tested in real time but believe me, a natural market can change predictions that may not be on target. I had multiple experiences with lots of analysts but no one stayed accurate for long period of times; not sure how one analyst needs to update themselves according to market conditions.

Prediction for 22.07.2022 is downwards.

Well, I understand your suspicious point of view, it is rightly justified. What I am doing right now is forecasting, as you probably saw, predicting next day in advance. Someone using RSI or whatever technical analysis can't do it, simply because these tools are lagging, they tell you something after the fact. If you followed forecasts for the last try days I posted, you could make 10% by simple trading in the direction of prediction, but how you trade and manage the risk is out of scope of forecasts I provide. You are welcome to follow forecasts, it started good with 3 out of 3 days direction predicted, but we will see what real accuracy is after some statistically significant number of days/forecast e.g. 30, 50 and 100 days.

What would be the guarantee that your predictions also cannot be those renamed RSI based strategies? Because, when someone arrives here, will blame all the previous ones like they are the holy person who comes here to bring all new changes but nothing changed on the profit levels so far with almost all the traders here for over the decade of time.

Honestly, I am interested on buying a trading bot or prediction or a trading strategy which will get me some 10% profits consistently but only after a year long testing. I mean even I am interested on your promotion, I will not rush to deal with you. I will take time for following you and for evaluating your strategies/bots which last for months. In the span of such evaluating time, most fake ones will disappear. This may be the reason why I am still into searching of such a profitable bot and not making profits with my sleeping bitcoins .

Prediction for 21.07.2022 is downwards again.

That is if this was true but if this was true, I don't think the op will release it in public. It's clearly said that his A.I has a 90 percent success rate, not 40 and 60 percent. Also the OP's account was registered on 14th this current month so he haven't discovered this forum yet on the dates you mentioned and maybe this invention of him is still in its development mode that time but now that it is ready, you can try it if you want to. Even the price have dip already on this current price we are at now, it's still not too late yet because the price still actively moves. You can always make a profit out of this small fluctuation we are feeling right now.

Forecast for 20.07.2022 is downwards.

Thats quite an interesting view you got there.
If you take a coin and flip it everytime and enter a trade, you should get ~50% correct trades, so where did you found 20%?
Could you elaborate why even most sophisticated AI would be performing worse than technical analysis or coin flip?

I will be shocked if the most sophisticated AI in the world can give you up to 20% accuracy. The only way it could succeed is if it's stealing from the one who controls the market.

Okay let's test next day forecast for some time, I'll post daily predictions for the next day and make table to track the results. Will post in form of screenshot, so it is not editable after the fact.
Results will probably be worse than multi day prediction, but let's test it in real time.

Prediction for tomorrow 19.07.2022 is upwards.

Yes, that is just point of visualisation. Currently I can only do it for 1 day in advance until I fix recursive function for forecasting multiple days into the future.

For example, one day prediction for today:

Upon checking your post, it seems like there's no prediction there. I'm expecting something like this for your results or something.



See the yellow line? I drew that as somewhat a prediction of the price or something. If you can show that and it works, that's definitely something. I know an indicator that does that too, the Ichimoku^[1]

It looks like this



It predicts the future or something like that. Maybe you could do that as well or something?

---

Reference:
[1] - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ichimoku-cloud.asp

I get standard OHLCV data from brokers or data vendors. In most cases it's free and clean.
I can't tell you much details, but image processing and in particular speech recognition problems are quite similar to financial markets.
If you are going to try to develop AI system for markets, take a look at speech recogntion algorithms, I'm quite sure that's the way to follow.

Not sure about creating site, but will post forecasts here, so we can evaluate performance.

I am interested in artificial intelligence/image processing, can you post more information about how you work? Where do you get the data and how is the comparison made? Are you comparing prices? blueprints? Pictures, graphs, or in short how to get the results.
Do you intend to create a site that displays forecast data (provided that the data is not modified after its time "Hashing") and then, after two or three months, we can compare the extent of the error.

Hi, thanks for the interest. Yes, when the predictions are done, they are converted back to prices. They may be close to actual values, but they stand as the trend.
So for the 100% correlation, I meant trend, or directional accuracy prediction, not exact price values.

Like that quote.

For me this sounds to be an interesting project. But I have one problem with the numbers. Before I can rely on numbers or formulas, I need to have exact values and know what they stand for. No cleaning, rounding or whatever people do to make them "easier" for reading. So my question still remains: These bitcoin-rates you mention, are this averages or just the values taken at a certain time? Or do they stand for a trend?
For me a correlation cannot be made without a little bit more information about these numbers. One may follow the principle: "Don't trust any statistics you haven't falsified yourself".

Thanks everyone for questions and replies, if I miss to answer something, let me know.

I've made a mistake with predictions I posted. I've found there is some error in the code and function for future prediction is not working properly.
Basically what happened, model predicted the test data, not the future, so technically it was not a prediction.
Currently, I'm able just to post next day forecast, until I fix for the multi days function.

Take a look, predictions I posted and real price for the 4 predicted days; 100% correlation.

19937.01                              
19381.30
20040.58
20372.07

19970.56
19323.91
20212.07
20569.92



After training and predictions are made, it is converted back to prices for easier reading and interpretation. By no means it is predicting exact price, it will sometimes be very close, sometimes not.
What we are interested as traders is 'trend', hence I'm looking if the price will up or down.


Well, yes and no. To become rich with trading you need capital, either your personal or seeded one from investors. I'm trading my own money right now, as I have no guts to trade other people money.
Frankly, I would never sell the system; code and logic behind it, but information in sort of forecasts - why not?


That sounds very simple, but is far away from reality. Even if the forecasts are good, there is yet to build trading strategy and risk management framework for very profitable trading.
What do you mean by loan, raising money from investors or taking the loan from the banks?


I'm not selling anything, yet. I started thread to see opinions and sentiment on the topic - if there is good interest and I manage to provide good forecasts, then it is mutual benefit.
Yes, I'll post regular forecasts, when I finish fixing sequence prediction = more than one day into the future.


Loan from the crooked banks is a big no. Raising money from investors, maybe.
Well, sadly I was developing the system at the time of the fall. Would also like to test the performance in that period.

If you refer to the date you posted and now it's been 3 days after that, what I see is all prices have been breached and you can say yes it worked. But have you made a profit or tried to predict it again?

I admit the sophistication of AI makes it easier for us to do things beyond the reach of market algorithm movements. AI can source resources in a short period of time and the results can be compared and then come up with an almost correct price prediction. But believe me, a natural market can change predictions that may not be on target.

That will actually be a brilliant idea. Taking a loan, buy and sell to make lots of profits before the loan pay back day.
But If actually this A.I has a success percentage rate of 40% to 60% then I will love to ask, please where have you been since last month from 10th to 16th June 2022 when the price of Bitcoin starting falling from $30k to $20k, because I think if this A.I tool was close to being accurate, that would have been the best time for you to have shot your shut, because am sure by now people from all around the world would have been looking for you for your A.I tool, but however, a prediction sometimes may not be accurate and that's why it's call prediction, but moreover I wish you the best as you work more on your project and come to give us update anytime soon