All Eyes On Bitcoin’s Monthly Close

Symmetrick

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Quote from: slaman29 on October 13, 2022, 01:11:10 AM

Demo testing is pointless, I see trading platforms hold contests all the time with demo and paying out real prize money, the question people/newbies should have been asking is why aren't these same traders successful when doing real trades? Live markets react in very different way, the most unpredictable of any algorithm.

It's exactly like that, yes. I talked about the uselessness of demo platforms as a means of building your own strategy here: Is a demo account necessary for a beginner trader?

Indeed, the behavior of the demo mode and the real market is fundamentally different. In the real market, in addition to psychology and other live participants, there are also exchange bots, there are market makers who manipulate the price, but they are not in the demo mode. The crypto market is full of manipulation and various traps where bots hunt for stop losses and liquidations of most traders. All this must be taken into account when creating your trading strategy, and in the demo mode you can learn only the very basic principles of trading.

Therefore, I recommend that traders practice on a live account using a $5-10 deposit.

GeorgeJohn

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Actually i didn't understand full of your statement as per says, so from experience i do think you are emphasising on the monthly price will bitcoin will land into before the end of this remaining months of cryptocurrency, so therefore i believe that Bitcoin will still moving slowly in the market price except it's a situation whereby people who are investors go in into the market to bump the market.

Russlenat

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All eyes will certainly wait for the monthly closure of Bitcoin prices, this is because at this time Bitcoin is an asset that will continue to be monitored because the price is very fluctuating, besides that of course to see the market conditions in general whether red or green then we can from the position of Bitcoin prices.

Not only for monthly closure, but most likely for its year end price as bitcoin price will always be a reflection for altcoins price movement in the market. But to be honest, I am not seeing bitcoin this year reaching a new significant price because considering the market still in bearish position, so probably if bitcoin price suddenly surges high, it will always have high chances to bounce back again and drop its price.

TravelMug

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Quote from: STT on October 18, 2022, 01:59:23 PM

Once again BTC declines today having failed at the 50 day average hurdle and now we turn back to 18k area of support which has marked the lows. Appears likely we just repeat this back and forth until month end or even longer, most likely an event, news or main markets having a stormy conclusion to their current down turn; ideal being the Dollar index itself breaks rather then any worthwhile non political asset such as BTC. We can be sideways till next spring, next year so this month ending flat is to be expected.

Yes, although the price goes to $19,500, not seeing it getting to $20k at least for this month. Maybe that will be the farthest that we can reach and then decline again to $18k.

And as others pointed out, the economy is worsening, dollar is getting weak and then the war still in the background. So no respite for this year or even in 2023, I still think that the market will continue to decline or in a sideways.

STT

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Once again BTC declines today having failed at the 50 day average hurdle and now we turn back to 18k area of support which has marked the lows. Appears likely we just repeat this back and forth until month end or even longer, most likely an event, news or main markets having a stormy conclusion to their current down turn; ideal being the Dollar index itself breaks rather then any worthwhile non political asset such as BTC. We can be sideways till next spring, next year so this month ending flat is to be expected.

Wong Goblog

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It is natural because Bitcoin is Cryptocurrencies which is a measure of the market situation, if the price rises then it is likely that Altcoins will also rise and vice versa. Besides Bitcoin is Cryptocurrencies with the biggest user so it is always interesting to follow the price trend.

Vinaa77

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on August 31, 2022, 01:02:36 PM

You've made two topics today on monthly close? I start to think that this monthly close didn't get the attention you've been expecting and try to do more.

Well, we're in bear market. And the bear market will end. Maybe it did, or maybe it ends today, or in a couple days, weeks or months. Learn to have more patience and enjoy the ride. And yeah, HODL.

Some argue that the bear market is over, and others say it continues. But I see this is still the early stages of a bear market. Maybe it will continue, so we control and continue to evaluate our assets. I'm sure crypto prices will continue to dump, and haven't found anything that can pump up crypto prices. Many issues were developed, including the issue of Russia legalizing Bitcoin. But the issue cannot affect the market price.

bestcoins1

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Quote from: Moshi Moshi on October 14, 2022, 10:51:16 AM

it's still about 2 weeks until the closing of the monthly candle ends,
if what history says about bitcoin in October is bullish then I hope it happens and makes Bitcoin price reach $30k at the end of this month,
because $30k is a resistance that must be achieved if you don't want a breakdown again.

Does history have anything to say about how many years it was once in October in bullish terms? because i still don't think that every year in not october there will be bullish. But if it can happen this month with Bitcoin, I'm actually happy to see it because bullishness is what everyone needs right now. Even more so for those who still hold Bitcoin and also those who are still investing in Bitcoin within this year.

Moshi Moshi

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it's still about 2 weeks until the closing of the monthly candle ends,
if what history says about bitcoin in October is bullish then I hope it happens and makes Bitcoin price reach $30k at the end of this month,
because $30k is a resistance that must be achieved if you don't want a breakdown again.

slaman29

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Quote from: slaman29 on October 08, 2022, 08:00:27 AM

That's new to me, honestly, and it sounds like a really sound strategy for making sure your exposure is not overly big, I commend you on that.

I always see DCA as just buying non stop to hold for very very long time but this averaging is repetitive and constant, almost like betting an entire football game to lock in the value while hedging every outcome as it happens.

Good luck and yes, break even is better than loss (except the loss of time).

I came up with this strategy after numerous tests and experiments on micro amounts. I did not test my strategy on a demo account, because the demo account does not live a market life and the real price behavior cannot be tracked there. Bitcoin is inherently volatile, but it always (sooner or later) bounces back, so you can use it and not spend your bitcoins in vain. When you are trading for a couple of hundred bucks, you can put a stop loss and quickly re-enter the trade, and when 4-8 bitcoins are involved in the trade, it is better to think a little more than make decisions like exiting on a stop loss, since when such amounts, one click of a button can take a lot of money from you.

Although I later realized that all trading is too tiring and sent it to hell by switching to investing. Grin

Demo testing is pointless, I see trading platforms hold contests all the time with demo and paying out real prize money, the question people/newbies should have been asking is why aren't these same traders successful when doing real trades? Live markets react in very different way, the most unpredictable of any algorithm.

And that's the best point about Bitcoin that you can use it and spend it even if you buy them high, they have a good use.

buwaytress

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I came up with this strategy after numerous tests and experiments on micro amounts. I did not test my strategy on a demo account, because the demo account does not live a market life and the real price behavior cannot be tracked there. Bitcoin is inherently volatile, but it always (sooner or later) bounces back, so you can use it and not spend your bitcoins in vain. When you are trading for a couple of hundred bucks, you can put a stop loss and quickly re-enter the trade, and when 4-8 bitcoins are involved in the trade, it is better to think a little more than make decisions like exiting on a stop loss, since when such amounts, one click of a button can take a lot of money from you.

Although I later realized that all trading is too tiring and sent it to hell by switching to investing. Grin

Interesting reading up on your post exchanges here, also new for me to hear DCA being used in a trading perspective (and no, am not conveniently ignoring that as a DCA-er in the end I'm closing a trade if I plan to liquidate at some point, no matter how far down the line!).

Don't have the precise stats but yeah, Bitcoin spends about 80% of the time, if not more, in sideway and bearish motions, with short-lived rallies, but crucially, rallies that lift up the long-term bottoms... so DCA is just logically the most profitable way to invest.

I discovered what a tiring and soul-sucking thing trading was over a decade before I got into Bitcoin... am sure many of you've been down the forex road Wink

Zanab247

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Since there is still bear market in the community, show that very soon investors will start experiencing bull market that will make others investors to believe that bull market has finally come for both long term investors and short term investors to celebrate. I guess, this bull market we are about to enter will take a long months before bear market will appear for people to use the opportunity to buy again and hold until another bull .

slaman29

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Quote from: slaman29 on October 07, 2022, 02:00:13 AM

And I don't never heard before what you're doing. DCA on an exchange, and as part of a trade? DCA is for long term, own wallet buys, or so I always thought!

The meaning of the averaging strategy was that having a deposit and only 1-1.5% of the deposit to enter a deal, I used the rest of the deposit to secure this deal and possible averaging if the price starts to fall sharply, breaking through the next support level.

As a result, I very rarely closed negative trades, but sometimes I sat in a negative trade for a long time, waiting for the price to bounce. But the price does not always reach the previous levels when bouncing, so I averaged my position, thereby lowering my entry point into the trade so that it was below the nearest resistance level. Thus, when the price reached this value, I always exited the trade to breakeven, though sometimes I had to wait 10-14 days for the price to return to the values you need. But a breakeven is still better than a loss. Therefore, I always prefer to wait and not rush to close losing trades.

That's new to me, honestly, and it sounds like a really sound strategy for making sure your exposure is not overly big, I commend you on that.

I always see DCA as just buying non stop to hold for very very long time but this averaging is repetitive and constant, almost like betting an entire football game to lock in the value while hedging every outcome as it happens.

Good luck and yes, break even is better than loss (except the loss of time).

globalpain

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All eyes will certainly wait for the monthly closure of Bitcoin prices, this is because at this time Bitcoin is an asset that will continue to be monitored because the price is very fluctuating, besides that of course to see the market conditions in general whether red or green then we can from the position of Bitcoin prices.

september is over and october is in hand, historically the price of bitcoin has always been bullish this month,
so i don't need to worry about how bitcoin will run this month,
because in september bitcoin has experienced a prolonged bearish so it's time to be bullish in october, keep hold!.

Chato1977

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Quote from: calvinweight on August 31, 2022, 11:27:38 AM

As of this video we have 8 hours left in the month. If we close near $20k the trend is projecting a significant drop in September. The good news is that this should be the last one. The last one is the most emotional though so I’m expecting long wicks and lots of liquidations for those that haven’t done their risk management properly. Buckle up since when September is in the books things will start getting fun for years to come.

https://youtu.be/w6bk4SQuiPU

Yes we have a significant drop last September but not as bad as we expected and also the growth seems to be going now as the 1st week of Octobers ends now ? and besides this is the Last quarter so basically there are more coming from this point either this month or the next 2 remaining?

I don't know what to expect but one thing I'm sure there will be changes this next months.

slaman29

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Quote from: slaman29 on October 01, 2022, 08:51:39 AM

Trading without stops, without limits, it's all a sign of no real thought for Plan B.

If we are talking about trading in the spot market, about trading in deflationary assets and this trading is not short-term, then why use stops at all? For example, if you are trading bitcoin on the spot and you have medium and long term trading, then it is more efficient to use the DCA strategy, and not sell bitcoins at a loss on a stop, since even in the bullish phase, bitcoin is characterized by increased volatility and it can easily lose half of the value in order to then grow even more. I have been trading bitcoin for 4 years (until 2022) and never put these stops because I used the strategy of averaging my positions. It seemed to me much more effective than placing stops, especially when they are in the high-risk zone, 10-50% of the opening price of the transaction. Such stops can fly off at any time, but the market trend will not change. This is the main disadvantage of stop losses when trading bitcoin.

I'm talking about people who're trading, not a single one of them are long term, this is my point.

How long do your trades last? If it's days or weeks or months like what I'm referring to, it's not long term right? Surely you have targets for every trade, do you not? Target for max loss, target for required profit.

And I don't never heard before what you're doing. DCA on an exchange, and as part of a trade? DCA is for long term, own wallet buys, or so I always thought!

slaman29

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Quote from: Kemarit on September 30, 2022, 02:33:24 AM

Quote from: slaman29 on September 29, 2022, 11:58:11 PM

I don't know why people keep letting themselves get disappointed

That's just one part of the equation, you let your self disappointed in this market, and if so, what will be your plan B? for sure there's none for them. They are going to be disappointed though, as the market is going to fall because of the world recession, not just us, but other markets like stocks, which shows that we are interconnected after all. So once those investors got disappointed, they can't just say that they will shift to others because everything is going down.

I don't know but most traders I come across, or rather I would say close to all of them, they all think they have Plan B but none of them really want to seriously think about it. It's as if they enter markets, with full knowledge that majority of people lose money (regardless bull or bear) and then they still get surprised when they become part of the majority.

Trading without stops, without limits, it's all a sign of no real thought for Plan B.

Fortify

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Quote from: calvinweight on August 31, 2022, 11:27:38 AM

As of this video we have 8 hours left in the month. If we close near $20k the trend is projecting a significant drop in September. The good news is that this should be the last one. The last one is the most emotional though so I’m expecting long wicks and lots of liquidations for those that haven’t done their risk management properly. Buckle up since when September is in the books things will start getting fun for years to come.

Posting 8 hours before the end of the month and somehow expecting big movements to happen? Seems a little bit silly to me. At the very least it will happen in the full 24 hour cycle including the last day of the month - as your "last 8 hours" is different from the last 8 hours in Zimbabwe and the last 8 hours in Shanghai. Cryptocurrency in general is extremely volatile compared to say the stock market, where traders are making judgements on what will happen weeks or months ahead because shorter time frames are simply too erratic to be profitable. It seems that Bitcoin is settled for now, but as more bad news starts to come out in relation to recession then it might continue to trend downwards albeit at a slower pace.

Joshapat

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Bitcoin is the most popular cryptocurrencies so that the easy thing to know the market conditions is from the price of Bitcoin, the presence of stable coins that continue to grow and are now the most couples in trading do not make the position of Bitcoin reduced, Bitcoin's profits are the largest community support.

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Quote from: Dave1 on September 29, 2022, 11:26:48 PM

Well what do you expect, we are in a bear market so I will say that maybe we should expect this kind of movement?
$20k is still our biggest hurdle now, but looking at the price at the end of the month, around $19,400? might be a good indication that we can touch it maybe in October.

People often do not admit to their faults, but it's obvious that it's taking a toll to investor, specially newbies who think that bear market is really that bad but if you look at it closely, this is the time to accumulate.

Either way, the price is sure to get back to $20k later, whether it's in October or next month. A beginner should be able to learn to analyze the movement of bitcoin so that he can decide when to buy, especially if he decides to become an investor so he can find the right time to buy. Indeed we are still in a bear market but that doesn't mean we can't profit because as long as the price is still up and down, we can still try to make a profit. But it will not be easy and this is where it is necessary to analyze the movement before we decide.

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