520$-530$ is a horizontal resistance, which should not come into play again at this time of the post bubble burst.
One could assume a downfall to 100$-135$. For whatever reasons, the market was already there and those who want to buy cheap will wait for that price level.
If this plays out, bitcoin cannot recover
-broken previous ATH,
-broken the lower bollinger band in the weekly chart for the first time.
For the latter even 300$ would be sufficiant.
If we break below the previous ATH, it just confirms the end of a cycle like the pic shows (this is not necessarily my top count, but it shows my point). Why must it spell the end for Bitcoin?
If the 1W EMAs break and it goes goes sideways/down for a year, speculators will feel like "it's the end of bitcoin" because it's the end of bitcoin for THEM and they'll probably be leaving but it's not necessarily the end of bitcoin itself and the price may end up restoring current levels in a year from now, and a brand new group of speculators will join in for the ride.
Here's a really simple view of why there is support at $540 right now. 1W ema is a historically strong support. That's until there is a downcross - then bitcoin is a whole different ball game.
TERA you never cease to dissapoint with bearish sentiment. You are constantly looking for a reason to retire from this market. That weekly is most likely going to be broken on your log chart. Will we not be seeing you anymore after that?
If 1W emas cross down, then I will probably move all of my trading funds off of exchanges and then use CoinBase if I ever decide to buy them back in the future. However, I will still keep my committed long term allocation of btc, I might still trade an altcoin here and there, and I might actually focus on writing code and developing services with bitcoin rather than trading. So you'd see me in Bitcoin Discussion rather than Speculation.
what period weekly EMA are you using? 10, 20?
Actually looks like you are using a 30.
We were below that for a good while in 2011 and even perhaps a little in the beginning of 2012, although I don't have the gox data only Stamps.
This seems like sort of an arbitrary EMA to be using. Also, this EMA seems skewed to me because of the two bubble in 2013 forcing the weekly trend high above the lower log trend line most people use to mark support on the long term log chart.
I have my doubts that breaking $530 for a while is going to spiral us into a prolonged untradable bear market.
This seems like faulty science to me.