Pages:
Author

Topic: Alright, be totally honest: who saw this one coming? (Read 5174 times)

legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
I think the next few days will be good for BTC.  I think the Liberty Reserve issue will send some people over to BTC.  I know some think it will might hurt but I think the opposite will happen.

So, my prediction is $150 by Friday. 

I am usually NOT right though. Wink 
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

Here from 4 days before the rally:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2217116

Pretty good, but here's the real test: did you act on it, and with how much commitment?

Cause for example, I called yesterday's dip with high accuracy and well before it began, yet I didn't make any trades that took advantage of it, part out of laziness, part out of doubt about my own analysis.

Indeed. Everyone's situation is different. I have bought and sold and re-bought, so was "all-in" last time from 117, so I didn't buy more although a spike up seemed likely.  I have also decided to reduce my exposure to mtgox to a minimum until such time as the uncertainly over the Dwolla situation is resolved (even though I have never used Dwolla, and never intend to).

I find it inexplicable that mtgox have not released a proper official statement to reassure their customers that they a working to comply with the FinCen regulations and unfreeze that account. I mean, how can they ignore their own obligations when they make their customers go through the verification (KYC evidence supplying) process?
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

Here from 4 days before the rally:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2217116

Pretty good, but here's the real test: did you act on it, and with how much commitment?

Cause for example, I called yesterday's dip with high accuracy and well before it began, yet I didn't make any trades that took advantage of it, part out of laziness, part out of doubt about my own analysis.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

Here from 4 days before the rally:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2217116
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
I saw it coming.  This is just the beginning, IMO.

I just follow a Goomboo-like strategy and pay alot of attention to the Bollinger width.

Are there any sites that draw Bollinger bands for you like Yahoo does for stocks?

http://bitcoincharts.com
full member
Activity: 217
Merit: 100
What's your story?

When bitcoin was 25 cents, I was sitting on a few thousand dollars and was considering either gold or bitcoin.

Needless to say, I didn't choose bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000
Etherscan.io
My 2 cents... I've been observing these trends and a lot of these mini jumps coincides with the Avalon miners/chips buying. In a low volume market any kind of buying tends to move it easily. The current Avalon batches 10,000 each batch (around USD100k) are selling out quite easily
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 502
I saw it coming.  This is just the beginning, IMO.

I just follow a Goomboo-like strategy and pay alot of attention to the Bollinger width.

Are there any sites that draw Bollinger bands for you like Yahoo does for stocks?
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
1Kgyk4nQSzb3Pm9E9vWiGVyJ6jpPwripKf
everyone in bitcoin saw the price going up at some point. the difference is most traders did not see any signs of this sudden increase. This is a sign that a company is about to tell us something big. All people who know say for example western union is about to start using bitcoin will rush in and buy up as much as they can all at the same time. I am not saying western union is doing anything of the sort it just an example.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
I think almost everyone saw it coming...
Just look at fundamentals instead of those silly technicals...
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Many saw this coming, bitcoins are poised to be THE virtual currency and now that they have become less volatile they are certainly far more desirable.

Which is going to lead to volatility which will lead to a drop in price which will lead to less volatile which will lead to price increase which will lead to price drop.....

*head explodes*

I luv u Bitcoin
legendary
Activity: 3192
Merit: 1279
Primedice.com, Stake.com
Many saw this coming, bitcoins are poised to be THE virtual currency and now that they have become less volatile they are certainly far more desirable.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
- - -Caveat Aleo- - -
I can pretty much guarantee a drop from here since I bought at 135.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 510
I've been anticipating sub $20 for weeks. So, not me.  Undecided


I didn't have quite that pessimistic an outlook, but like I said, I didn't see this coming either.


and to be honest. I'm a bit surprised about the "well duh, it was obvious" attitude of the other posters. I'm following the wall thread pretty closely, and at least in there, there was nothing like a consensus that we're about to not only break 125. but 130 as well, in one swift motion.

"One swift motion" is relative. $123 to $125 was two days. $125 to $130 was two more days. Those kind of movements used to happen in 2 hours, not 2 days.

In terms of saw it coming, I meant like 6-12 hours before it happened. Bid walls increasing, getting closer to the edge, more depth. As that happened the asks started to fall off (a lot at $130). It was a pretty slow moving rally. Sideways action is usually a bullish sign.

In terms of did you see this coming 1-2-3 weeks ago, no one knows that kind of stuff for sure. You can't predict the DHS stuff. You can't predict getting Goxed. You can't predict Liberty Reserve getting nuked or China cracking down on BTC. We've had a lot of good news, millions of VC money (that never existed in 2011), some conference hype. This is a long slow slide up. Go Bitcoins!

The markets are looking gangsta right now.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
I see 500$ coins, coming.
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
i see it coming. a sell off now. traders let it run time to cash in.
legendary
Activity: 1458
Merit: 1006
I predicted $266 by the weekend. So my prediction was only half right.

 Grin Grin Grin
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
I saw it coming on November 2011, when I invested in my first Bitcoins. Watched from the sidelines for almost a year lol

lolzz

You mean right after you had sunk your investment capital into Soiledcoins ?

 Tongue
newbie
Activity: 43
Merit: 0
I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

I can say for sure I wasn't prepared for it at all. Volume was ultra-thin, and the indicators I tend to rely on (e.g. Chaikin money flow) had looked spotty for the past days, so I expected horizontal price movement, with maybe a slight upwards direction, but nothing like what actually happened.

What's your story?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2182378

Then again here.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/btcusd-update-215142


just reading through your previous blog posts. don't really understand yet what kind of models you use, but something something ML it seems :-P
Correct, we operate a machine learning and quotation platform which prices many different types of financial instruments, including most BTC pairs.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1002
I saw it coming on November 2011, when I invested in my first Bitcoins. Watched from the sidelines for almost a year lol
Pages:
Jump to: