Alright, be totally honest: who saw this one coming? - page 2.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: quantsig on May 26, 2013, 08:04:08 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 25, 2013, 05:27:38 AM

I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

I can say for sure I wasn't prepared for it at all. Volume was ultra-thin, and the indicators I tend to rely on (e.g. Chaikin money flow) had looked spotty for the past days, so I expected horizontal price movement, with maybe a slight upwards direction, but nothing like what actually happened.

What's your story?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2182378

Then again here.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/btcusd-update-215142

just reading through your previous blog posts. don't really understand yet what kind of models you use, but something something ML it seems :-P

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

I saw it coming, even told my brother that he should buy some.
If we just look at the logaritmic chart(http://tonycoleby.com/bitcoin.html) you can see we should hit 160$ soon.
I also watched the wall @bitstamp, there was some arbetrage towards MtGox I guess just before Mt Gox really took off.

Based on Tony Coleby's chart, I predict 180-200 (overshoot) before the end of next week, then a drop towards 1150-160$ (undershoot). After this move, we will see a stable price growth of 1.8% daily.

quantsig

newbie

Activity: 43

Merit: 0

Quote from: oda.krell on May 25, 2013, 05:27:38 AM

I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

I can say for sure I wasn't prepared for it at all. Volume was ultra-thin, and the indicators I tend to rely on (e.g. Chaikin money flow) had looked spotty for the past days, so I expected horizontal price movement, with maybe a slight upwards direction, but nothing like what actually happened.

What's your story?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2182378

Then again here.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/btcusd-update-215142

Gordonium

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

I did.

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

I based my prediction on the assumption that the crash was only a correction and that's why we saw damped oscillation after the crash until we found stable ground at around 110-115. We've built a base there and from there the previous trend upwards from before the hyperbolic rise would have to continue according to my thoughts. I wasn't entirely sure about it and also considered more sideways movement, but I did feel that the most likely outcome would be a slow but significant rise up from 115. When it went up to 120-125 last week this validified my thoughts, so I expected nothing less than a continuation of this trend.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: oda.krell on May 26, 2013, 04:56:01 AM

Quote from: fitty on May 25, 2013, 11:25:40 PM

[...] Sideways action is usually a bullish sign.

That's were I'm puzzled. We've been trading sideways for 10 days now (the occasional spike upwards or downwards nonwithstanding), no breakout happening during that time. The genesisblock post was relatively early calling it, but was phrased pretty cautious as well. Plus, I think trading sideways is mainly seen as a phase of consolidation, after which the previous dominant trend continues (strengthened). And determining what the dominant trend was/is still an open question (although I'm also leaning more towards up uP UP now Tongue

)

You must also keep in mind that bitcoin currently has a higher inflation rate than most fiat currencies, so by not falling it is actually rising.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: fitty on May 25, 2013, 11:25:40 PM

[...] Sideways action is usually a bullish sign.

That's were I'm puzzled. We've been trading sideways for 10 days now (the occasional spike upwards or downwards nonwithstanding), no breakout happening during that time. The genesisblock post was relatively early calling it, but was phrased pretty cautious as well. Plus, I think trading sideways is mainly seen as a phase of consolidation, after which the previous dominant trend continues (strengthened). And determining what the dominant trend was/is still an open question (although I'm also leaning more towards up uP UP now Tongue

)

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Thanks for the input, some interesting points were made.

One thing though, I probably should have made my original question a bit more clear: I wasn't really asking for (post-hoc) explanation for why it makes sense that the price went up, but rather was wondering how your own {complex, simple, bordering-on-the-retarded} predictive models fared with this rally.

My interpretation of fundamentals aside (which is bullish mid term), about 24 to 48 hours before the early morning of the 23rd (does it make sense to call that the beginning of the rally?), I was strongly expecting further horizontal movement. And I was proven wrong.

So what I wanted to find out was how you arrived either at the right conclusion, or why you think your own analytical tools didn't catch this one. Bit of a public review of your methods, I guess.

Zaih

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Yep, it's just the beginning Wink

johnblaze

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: phorensic on May 25, 2013, 09:44:52 AM

One thing I do know, buy on this weekend dip, because we might hit all time highs next week when the banks open and more people can get USD into the exchanges.

^^at first i thought he was making a joke with this line

Quote from: phorensic on May 25, 2013, 10:51:13 AM

I don't make bets on the price off the exchanges. I only bet on the price by placing orders on the exchanges. The more important part of my post that I was trying to get across was to buy the weekend dip. It's usually a pretty safe bet. There has only been a handful of weekends, IMO, where the price didn't dip on the weekends.

I really suck at math so correct me if I am wrong, but my current theory is that if the "first" peak was at $32, then the second at $266, then we should see a new peak at $2200, or if you want to round out the next gain to 1,000% then we might see $2660. It might take a week, or it might take 5 years. Personally, I am selling at just under $1,000 so that I can wipe out my fiat debt Wink

^^now, i'm notsureifserious.jpg

fitty

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 501

CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

Quote from: oda.krell on May 25, 2013, 09:05:57 AM

Quote from: Quantum_Negatum on May 25, 2013, 07:48:18 AM

I've been anticipating sub $20 for weeks. So, not me. Undecided

I didn't have quite that pessimistic an outlook, but like I said, I didn't see this coming either.

and to be honest. I'm a bit surprised about the "well duh, it was obvious" attitude of the other posters. I'm following the wall thread pretty closely, and at least in there, there was nothing like a consensus that we're about to not only break 125. but 130 as well, in one swift motion.

"One swift motion" is relative. $123 to $125 was two days. $125 to $130 was two more days. Those kind of movements used to happen in 2 hours, not 2 days.

In terms of saw it coming, I meant like 6-12 hours before it happened. Bid walls increasing, getting closer to the edge, more depth. As that happened the asks started to fall off (a lot at $130). It was a pretty slow moving rally. Sideways action is usually a bullish sign.

In terms of did you see this coming 1-2-3 weeks ago, no one knows that kind of stuff for sure. You can't predict the DHS stuff. You can't predict getting Goxed. You can't predict Liberty Reserve getting nuked or China cracking down on BTC. We've had a lot of good news, millions of VC money (that never existed in 2011), some conference hype. This is a long slow slide up. Go Bitcoins!

Elwar

legendary

Activity: 3598

Merit: 2386

Viva Ut Vivas

I predicted $266 by the weekend. So my prediction was only half right.

$532 by next weekend.

Abandon

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

I saw it coming, or at least thought it was bullish, but before it happened I was beginning to second guess myself.

The Genesis Block predicted it pretty well:
http://www.thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-trading-are-we-primed-for-a-major-move-higher/

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

It's simply reversion the 2013 exponential growth trend. It should go higher in the coming days/weeks until it catches up. Right now it should be above $150, so it's likely to make another upward move soon.

Crypt_Current

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Shame on everything; regret nothing.

I saw it coming. This is just the beginning, IMO.

I just follow a Goomboo-like strategy and pay alot of attention to the Bollinger width.

Kazu

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

To be honest I was completely confused at why the huge dip after we hit $165-ish happened in the first place. I mean, I expected a drop down to like $140, but more than that was completely unexpected for me. I still think it should be about $140 now, tbh.

Ultraviolet

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

If you think you're going to see a new ATH in the middle of a market that only trades sideways until someone with 1MM+ in fiat comes and moves the market +$3, you're delirious.

phorensic

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 500

Quote from: N12 on May 25, 2013, 09:48:15 AM

Quote from: phorensic on May 25, 2013, 09:44:52 AM

One thing I do know, buy on this weekend dip, because we might hit all time highs next week when the banks open and more people can get USD into the exchanges.

Hahahaha. I'll bet you 1:10 that Bitcoin won't hit new alltime highs until the end of next week (until begin of Monday, UTC). Let me know if you are willing to do that, and how much volume (denominated in BTC). Source should be mtgoxUSD.

I don't make bets on the price off the exchanges. I only bet on the price by placing orders on the exchanges. The more important part of my post that I was trying to get across was to buy the weekend dip. It's usually a pretty safe bet. There has only been a handful of weekends, IMO, where the price didn't dip on the weekends.

I really suck at math so correct me if I am wrong, but my current theory is that if the "first" peak was at $32, then the second at $266, then we should see a new peak at $2200, or if you want to round out the next gain to 1,000% then we might see $2660. It might take a week, or it might take 5 years. Personally, I am selling at just under $1,000 so that I can wipe out my fiat debt Wink

stslimited

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: phatsphere on May 25, 2013, 06:08:17 AM

you joined only a month ago. would you have been here 2 years ago, you would have seen this several times … no surprise.

this community relies on this waaaayyyy too much

case in point, I had wired to Mt. Gox months before I made an account here

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Quote from: oda.krell on May 25, 2013, 09:05:57 AM

Quote from: Quantum_Negatum on May 25, 2013, 07:48:18 AM

I've been anticipating sub $20 for weeks. So, not me. Undecided

I didn't have quite that pessimistic an outlook, but like I said, I didn't see this coming either.

and to be honest. I'm a bit surprised about the "well duh, it was obvious" attitude of the other posters. I'm following the wall thread pretty closely, and at least in there, there was nothing like a consensus that we're about to not only break 125. but 130 as well, in one swift motion.

If there's consensus on anything you pretty much know for sure that it's not going to happen. Wink

Topic: Alright, be totally honest: who saw this one coming? - page 2. (Read 5174 times)