So, the Bitcoin ETF is around the corner (13th of March) and the odds of it getting approved by the SEC is around 10% (90% chance it will NOT get approved)
So what's going to probably happen after that? Let me tell you:
We will notice a 20-30% drop in BTC price which is equivalent to around 4 billion USD decrease in BTC market-cap.
So wondering where this 4 billion dollars will go? Well here is my humble speculation:
2 billion dollars will be converted to fiat currency (People will sell their BTC for real money or USDT on exchanges such as Poloniex)
The remaining 2 billion dollars will actually move to altcoins. The majority of these 2 billion dollars will move to the top altcoins (The expected price in BTC is based on a $900 BTC):
- Monero (XMR) - I assume 20% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Monero Current Price: $15.30 (0.01216BTC)
Monero Expected Price: $18.00 (0.02BTC)
- DASH - I assume 15% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
DASH Current Price: $46 (0.0367BTC)
DASH Expected Price: $53 (0.059BTC)
- Ethereum (ETH) - I assume 15% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Ethereum Current Price: $18.20 (0.01566BTC)
Ethereum Expected Price: $21
- Litecoin - I assume 20% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Litecoin Current Price: $3.92 (0.000308BTC)
Litecoin Expected Price: $4.70 (0.0005BTC)
- RIPPLE - I assume 5% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
RIPPLE Current Price: $0.00607 (0.00000478BTC)
RIPPLE Expected Price: $0.0064 (0.0000071BTC)
Due to the much smaller marketcap of altcoins compared to BTC, this will have an exponential price increase for altcoins.
And due to the increase in price of altcoins and the decrease in price of BTC, it would make it an ideal choice to convert back most of your altcoins to BTC to simply nearly double your amount of bitcoins a couple of days after ETF disapproval.
This is just my humble opinion... This thread will be here for future reference
If I helped you make the right decision (You will know 1-2 weeks from now), your donations are more than welcome:
BTC: 12cmkPFYp9iFxmpiMoSmDmB87wAMWPwFwN
ETH: 0x34CA0147DE32537CE9913d8eC4EF93BDc6010AFe
DSH: XiUM2BmkWzzHnHxqtGkSRPSREaeSyEsQYu
LTC: LMKuKQTNGC3G3MtSx87qkTG1YUSexSoYZR
Alright... Everything is moving exactly as I expected apart from Ripple and LTC
BTC dominance dropped from 85% to 81.4% as noted on coinmarketcap.com which shows the new increased interest in altcoins (4.6% increase)!
I noted the expected ETH price to be $21.. It is actually $23
I noted the expected XMR price to be $18.. It is currently $16 and extremely bullish towards $18
I noted the expected DASH to be $54.. It is currently $70! Seems like DASH has taken most of the love away from LTC and Ripple and other smaller coins!
I was wrong on:
BTC consolidating at the 900-1000 range... It actually quickly recovered to $1150 pretty fast!