Altcoins coming to their glory in a matter of days! :) - page 2.

error08

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Quote from: joerazor on March 06, 2017, 05:45:46 PM

So, the Bitcoin ETF is around the corner (13th of March) and the odds of it getting approved by the SEC is around 10% (90% chance it will NOT get approved)

So what's going to probably happen after that? Let me tell you:

We will notice a 20-30% drop in BTC price which is equivalent to around 4 billion USD decrease in BTC market-cap.
So wondering where this 4 billion dollars will go? Well here is my humble speculation:

2 billion dollars will be converted to fiat currency (People will sell their BTC for real money or USDT on exchanges such as Poloniex)
The remaining 2 billion dollars will actually move to altcoins. The majority of these 2 billion dollars will move to the top altcoins (The expected price in BTC is based on a $900 BTC):

- Monero (XMR) - I assume 20% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Monero Current Price: $15.30 (0.01216BTC)
Monero Expected Price: $18.00 (0.02BTC)

- DASH - I assume 15% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
DASH Current Price: $46 (0.0367BTC)
DASH Expected Price: $53 (0.059BTC)

- Ethereum (ETH) - I assume 15% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Ethereum Current Price: $18.20 (0.01566BTC)
Ethereum Expected Price: $21

- Litecoin - I assume 20% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Litecoin Current Price: $3.92 (0.000308BTC)
Litecoin Expected Price: $4.70 (0.0005BTC)

- RIPPLE - I assume 5% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
RIPPLE Current Price: $0.00607 (0.00000478BTC)
RIPPLE Expected Price: $0.0064 (0.0000071BTC)

Due to the much smaller marketcap of altcoins compared to BTC, this will have an exponential price increase for altcoins.

And due to the increase in price of altcoins and the decrease in price of BTC, it would make it an ideal choice to convert back most of your altcoins to BTC to simply nearly double your amount of bitcoins a couple of days after ETF disapproval.

This is just my humble opinion... This thread will be here for future reference

If I helped you make the right decision (You will know 1-2 weeks from now), your donations are more than welcome:
BTC: 12cmkPFYp9iFxmpiMoSmDmB87wAMWPwFwN
ETH: 0x34CA0147DE32537CE9913d8eC4EF93BDc6010AFe
DSH: XiUM2BmkWzzHnHxqtGkSRPSREaeSyEsQYu
LTC: LMKuKQTNGC3G3MtSx87qkTG1YUSexSoYZR

You maybe right, and looks like you hold those coins as well. But, why you don't have/mentioned about byteball as it is the best coin after bitcoin. Holding those coins should be profitable for long term, but some coins are better than another, I don't know about litecoin as it seems cannot rise up and always ended fall down, I guess 20% will not move to LTC.

iamnotback

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Quote from: iamnotback on March 08, 2017, 06:31:49 PM

Quote from: thejaytiesto on March 08, 2017, 02:37:25 PM

Quote from: iamnotback on March 07, 2017, 01:51:19 PM

As a bitcoin holder, how are you going to deal with the following days regarding the ETF? Looks like the price may tank. Im considering selling some in Poloniex using the USDT, wait a couple of days and rebuy back, i've seen a lot of people wanting to do this, this leads me to believe we may see a serious dip and I don't want to be the idiot watching the price tank, at least if I can profit from it I will feel better, since im sure it will recover im not worried long term but I need to make more BTC and this seems like a good opportunity. I doubt price will go any higher than $1200 before dump party begins.

Of course there is the possibility of ETF passing and the market going nuts about it and we may see $1300+... but odds are against that.

If I had a verified account on Poloniex so I could trade to fiat, I would probably consider selling 20% as a hedge at some price north of $1250. I would not buy into altcoins because when Bitcoin's price declines, more money moves from altcoins into Bitcoins to take advantage of the dip opportunity. So altcoins decline more on a percentage basis than Bitcoin. The time to buy altcoins is as Bitcoin starts to rise significantly, then altcoins go bonkers, but sell the altcoins before Bitcoin peaks. Note sentiment about the ETF event is perfectly balanced.

XbladeX

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Quote from: iamnotback on March 07, 2017, 03:29:49 PM

***
It is possible that the best move right now might be to take gains on these recent altcoin increases and buy BTC. You want to sell BTC for altcoins as BTC is rising to take advantage of larger percentage gains in altcoins and then sell altcoins near the peak and repurchase BTC on dips. Again I am not a trader and traders should analyze more carefully.
***

Market is unpredictable but from my point of view todays Bitcoin with fees like 0.1$ /1$ and whole blocksize drama shows how hard is chance something with Bitcoin there are factors that are preventing BTC from skyrocketing now this is transaction limit.
One you put DAMM on transactions flow will move to coins who are open for it that is alts.
I believe that Bitcoin need kick in price balls to make changes even bitcoin fork into 2 will make from that 2nd chain like alt i mean BTCu.
Why use 10min bock size BTCu over Dash,ETH,Nem,.... or 30 faster alts inset here with no blocksize drama.
If some people think that one pool miner/CEO can for BTC to BTCu I think they are wrong.

BTC from 2013 is not BTC 2017 people see progress in alts and slow motion in BTC.
BTC fom 2013 is like win3.1 and in 2017 it need upgraded soft to keep up with others.
Even todays Ubuntu will win with win3.11 so BTC community need act because market will punish it.
New comers who will buy 1st BTC will see 4-10h delays and what they will think ?
BTC is shit coin vs those alts like win3.11 vs ubuntu/win7/android.
You think that one soft will remain forever Cheesy

?
Not upgraded soft will fall and lose value like old games with 90% discount now.

In order for new money flow into alts is:
-Bitcoin drama keep moving and OLD BTC believers will switch to some alts (but most those who wanted move they are there already)
-Bitcoin moves 10x and now people see bitcoin as too expensive and they will rush to alts , but look point above.

This time is not like 2013 today bitcoin have REAL problems you almost can not use it at reasonable price,
without ETF it will be very hard to convince people that technology is worth 10x more Cheesy

if you want 10x rise BTC price you need rise captivity/usability also like 10x

iamnotback

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Quote from: iamnotback on March 06, 2017, 06:05:19 PM

Approval sends Bitcoin skyrocketing. Disapproval merely causes a minor consolidation.

I am not selling BTC fearing a massive price collapse. Diversifying into best of breed altcoins for more leverage is okay, but this leverage can bite you in both directions.

If the ETF is approved, then it is possible Bitcoin may rapidly skyrocket to $2500.

Quote from: miscreanity on March 06, 2017, 08:53:52 PM

An ETF would simply add fuel for a short burst. Maybe $2000-2500 to start. After a correction from there, a flood will probably start (likely coming from Asia & Europe) with $6000 as an initial target for late 2017 to 2018.

The chances of BTC going below $1000 are rapidly dwindling. We're currently at the top of the red channel from my prior posts, and if we exceed $1288-1290 for more than a day it's very likely the trend will continue.

Eventually we may have to retest $1000-1100 but that's likely to be short-lived and sometime around Armstrong's call to beware of April. As of now I still see only the beginning of an acceleration in trend. If we hold above $1265, I think it will be more of a pause in trend than a correction. It still seems that $1300-1500 is being reached for. To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.

Also an ETF disapproval seems to maybe already be baked into the expectations, i.e. seems there is a lot of selling at the ATH and diversification into altcoins since January but that may be premature (as we may be blasting off through the ATH to a new phase transition analogous to 2013).

Quote from: iamnotback on March 07, 2017, 03:37:59 PM

Quote from: edgar on March 07, 2017, 10:49:34 AM

quite a bit of consolidation going on.

Into altcoins lately. But maybe now it is about to change direction?

Interestingly note on that Bitcoin Percentage of Total Market Capitalization chart linked in the above quote, that the percent made a long-term bottom on March 13 or 14, 2016. And the trend is upward and higher-highs and higher-lows since. So what actually happens is that as BTC falls in price, more funds move out of altcoins into BTC. So a crash of BTC, crashes altcoins on a percentage basis more than it does BTC.

It is possible that the best move right now might be to take gains on these recent altcoin increases and buy BTC. You want to sell BTC for altcoins as BTC is rising to take advantage of larger percentage gains in altcoins and then sell altcoins near the peak and repurchase BTC on dips. Again I am not a trader and traders should analyze more carefully.

Quote from: cellard on March 05, 2017, 01:52:45 PM

Re: Price will not crash if the ETF is rejected

I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.

Ayers

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nah i don't think this will happen, bitcoin will remain at the same value, and those coins will remain there, they have already a very big marketcap, you can't expect any grow anymmore, there are more chance that other small coins will increase a lot though

ekoice

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Quote from: joerazor on March 06, 2017, 05:45:46 PM

So, the Bitcoin ETF is around the corner (13th of March) and the odds of it getting approved by the SEC is around 10% (90% chance it will NOT get approved)

So what's going to probably happen after that? Let me tell you:

We will notice a 20-30% drop in BTC price which is equivalent to around 4 billion USD decrease in BTC market-cap.
So wondering where this 4 billion dollars will go? Well here is my humble speculation:

2 billion dollars will be converted to fiat currency (People will sell their BTC for real money or USDT on exchanges such as Poloniex)
The remaining 2 billion dollars will actually move to altcoins. The majority of these 2 billion dollars will move to the top altcoins (The expected price in BTC is based on a $900 BTC):

- Monero (XMR) - I assume 20% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Monero Current Price: $15.30 (0.01216BTC)
Monero Expected Price: $18.00 (0.02BTC)

- DASH - I assume 15% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
DASH Current Price: $46 (0.0367BTC)
DASH Expected Price: $53 (0.059BTC)

- Ethereum (ETH) - I assume 15% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Ethereum Current Price: $18.20 (0.01566BTC)
Ethereum Expected Price: $21

- Litecoin - I assume 20% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Litecoin Current Price: $3.92 (0.000308BTC)
Litecoin Expected Price: $4.70 (0.0005BTC)

- RIPPLE - I assume 5% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
RIPPLE Current Price: $0.00607 (0.00000478BTC)
RIPPLE Expected Price: $0.0064 (0.0000071BTC)

Due to the much smaller marketcap of altcoins compared to BTC, this will have an exponential price increase for altcoins.

And due to the increase in price of altcoins and the decrease in price of BTC, it would make it an ideal choice to convert back most of your altcoins to BTC to simply nearly double your amount of bitcoins a couple of days after ETF disapproval.

This is just my humble opinion... This thread will be here for future reference

If I helped you make the right decision (You will know 1-2 weeks from now), your donations are more than welcome:
BTC: 12cmkPFYp9iFxmpiMoSmDmB87wAMWPwFwN
ETH: 0x34CA0147DE32537CE9913d8eC4EF93BDc6010AFe
DSH: XiUM2BmkWzzHnHxqtGkSRPSREaeSyEsQYu
LTC: LMKuKQTNGC3G3MtSx87qkTG1YUSexSoYZR

Seems very interesting.WE have to just wait and see whether your assumption turns to be true or not.

NUFCrichard

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I do think that the ETF will be rejected again, and I do think that Alts will rise due to that, but I question whether Alts will rise in USD terms, or if they will rise in Bitcoin.

Even quite large rises in the already high prices of monero and dash could result in a dollar loss. Now that would be better than holding Bitcoin, but there is always the risk that the ETF is granted, Bitcoin rises massively and Alts are left behind.

You pay your money, you take your chance!

savioroshan

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Quote from: joerazor on March 06, 2017, 05:45:46 PM

So, the Bitcoin ETF is around the corner (13th of March) and the odds of it getting approved by the SEC is around 10% (90% chance it will NOT get approved)

So what's going to probably happen after that? Let me tell you:

We will notice a 20-30% drop in BTC price which is equivalent to around 4 billion USD decrease in BTC market-cap.
So wondering where this 4 billion dollars will go? Well here is my humble speculation:

2 billion dollars will be converted to fiat currency (People will sell their BTC for real money or USDT on exchanges such as Poloniex)
The remaining 2 billion dollars will actually move to altcoins. The majority of these 2 billion dollars will move to the top altcoins (The expected price in BTC is based on a $900 BTC):

- Monero (XMR) - I assume 20% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Monero Current Price: $15.30 (0.01216BTC)
Monero Expected Price: $18.00 (0.02BTC)

- DASH - I assume 15% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
DASH Current Price: $46 (0.0367BTC)
DASH Expected Price: $53 (0.059BTC)

- Ethereum (ETH) - I assume 15% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Ethereum Current Price: $18.20 (0.01566BTC)
Ethereum Expected Price: $21

- Litecoin - I assume 20% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Litecoin Current Price: $3.92 (0.000308BTC)
Litecoin Expected Price: $4.70 (0.0005BTC)

- RIPPLE - I assume 5% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
RIPPLE Current Price: $0.00607 (0.00000478BTC)
RIPPLE Expected Price: $0.0064 (0.0000071BTC)

Due to the much smaller marketcap of altcoins compared to BTC, this will have an exponential price increase for altcoins.

And due to the increase in price of altcoins and the decrease in price of BTC, it would make it an ideal choice to convert back most of your altcoins to BTC to simply nearly double your amount of bitcoins a couple of days after ETF disapproval.

This is just my humble opinion... This thread will be here for future reference

If I helped you make the right decision (You will know 1-2 weeks from now), your donations are more than welcome:
BTC: 12cmkPFYp9iFxmpiMoSmDmB87wAMWPwFwN
ETH: 0x34CA0147DE32537CE9913d8eC4EF93BDc6010AFe
DSH: XiUM2BmkWzzHnHxqtGkSRPSREaeSyEsQYu
LTC: LMKuKQTNGC3G3MtSx87qkTG1YUSexSoYZR

Yeah I also think the same as op. You have expained it clearly and just liked it. I am 100% sure that Bitcoin ETF is not going to get approved .But dont think bitcoin price will drop to 900 dollars all of a sudden. It can happen since its highly volatile.And now its the right time to inves in ether and monero as op said. Because I also think its price will shoot up after march 13th.

phr0stbyt3

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Liked your theory and actually think it may prove wrong but I would still prefer to keep my bitcoins as it has a guarantee that the price will increase while altcoins are unpredictable anything can happen with as market cap is less it can easily be manipulated.

e-coinomist

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Quote from: iamnotback on March 06, 2017, 06:38:47 PM

Just like when they said BREXIT and Trump wouldn't make it (nevertheless Armstrong's computer predicted the correct outcome and it is pointing to a Le Pen victory).

And that represents the detergent. Two failed experiments, now hopefull voters are watching both in miserable action. Exactly that prevents a third or fourth risky endeavor.

Maybe if one of them can show astonishing positive results of their activities? I rather doubt so.

andreibi

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Here's a chart to guide you where the money is going. Wink

Zer0Sum

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Quote from: iamnotback on March 06, 2017, 06:05:19 PM

Bitcoin is going higher because it is the reserve currency of all the experimentation in blockchains (regardless of Bitcoin's scaling).

Exactly, Bitcoin is the reserve currency for the most dynamic tech sector since dawn of the web in 1997...
It does not matter how profoundly crappy Bitcoin tech is... ITS GOOD ENOUGH... just like Windows 95 was GOOD ENOUGH.

The Sceptical Chymist

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This all sounds like quackamamie pooftery to me. I realize Dash has been ripping the altcoin world a new one, but I suspect you're 90% wrong. And I have no basis for that estimate either, just like there's no basis for anything anyone here writes about altcoins. You throw the rabbit into a cocked hat and see what emerges. Sometimes Dash goes crazy, other times it's freakin' DOGE. You just can't underestimate how retardified this population is.

cointabo

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Quote from: joerazor on March 06, 2017, 05:45:46 PM

So, the Bitcoin ETF is around the corner (13th of March) and the odds of it getting approved by the SEC is around 10% (90% chance it will NOT get approved)

So what's going to probably happen after that? Let me tell you:

We will notice a 20-30% drop in BTC price which is equivalent to around 4 billion USD decrease in BTC market-cap.
So wondering where this 4 billion dollars will go? Well here is my humble speculation:

2 billion dollars will be converted to fiat currency (People will sell their BTC for real money or USDT on exchanges such as Poloniex)
The remaining 2 billion dollars will actually move to altcoins. The majority of these 2 billion dollars will move to the top altcoins (The expected price in BTC is based on a $900 BTC):

- Monero (XMR) - I assume 20% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Monero Current Price: $15.30 (0.01216BTC)
Monero Expected Price: $18.00 (0.02BTC)

- DASH - I assume 15% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
DASH Current Price: $46 (0.0367BTC)
DASH Expected Price: $53 (0.059BTC)

- Ethereum (ETH) - I assume 15% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Ethereum Current Price: $18.20 (0.01566BTC)
Ethereum Expected Price: $21

- Litecoin - I assume 20% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
Litecoin Current Price: $3.92 (0.000308BTC)
Litecoin Expected Price: $4.70 (0.0005BTC)

- RIPPLE - I assume 5% of this 2 billion dollar cap difference will move here.
RIPPLE Current Price: $0.00607 (0.00000478BTC)
RIPPLE Expected Price: $0.0064 (0.0000071BTC)

Due to the much smaller marketcap of altcoins compared to BTC, this will have an exponential price increase for altcoins.

And due to the increase in price of altcoins and the decrease in price of BTC, it would make it an ideal choice to convert back most of your altcoins to BTC to simply nearly double your amount of bitcoins a couple of days after ETF disapproval.

This is just my humble opinion... This thread will be here for future reference

If I helped you make the right decision (You will know 1-2 weeks from now), your donations are more than welcome:
BTC: 12cmkPFYp9iFxmpiMoSmDmB87wAMWPwFwN
ETH: 0x34CA0147DE32537CE9913d8eC4EF93BDc6010AFe
DSH: XiUM2BmkWzzHnHxqtGkSRPSREaeSyEsQYu
LTC: LMKuKQTNGC3G3MtSx87qkTG1YUSexSoYZR

I am also quoting the entire OP so I can refer to it later.

iamnotback

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Quote from: e-coinomist on March 06, 2017, 06:36:28 PM

Neither Geert Wilders nor Marine Le Pen will make it.

Quoted so he can't delete nor edit it later.

Just like when they said BREXIT and Trump wouldn't make it (nevertheless Armstrong's computer predicted the correct outcome and it is pointing to a Le Pen victory).

Quote from: e-coinomist on March 06, 2017, 06:36:28 PM

Can we move this entire thread into the politics subsection by now? Thanks.

It was relevant to the discussion of the theory of BTC --> altcoins. You seem to be offended by the collapse of the European socialist utopia. Want to pretend it won't happen. Hahaha.

e-coinomist

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Money often costs too much.

Quote from: aoluain on March 06, 2017, 06:28:00 PM

Quote from: iamnotback on March 06, 2017, 06:05:19 PM

We are entering a massive exodus from the Euro and into dollars and other safe havens outside the collapsing economies of Europe due to BREXIT and will accelerate when Le Pen is elected in France in 2 months. This will also drive an increase in speculation in those assets which are ignited by this flood of capital seeking a home.

....and to a lesser extend the Dutch voting on the 15th of March where another right wing party
like Le Pen's french party may be elected. There is a lot of uncertainty here in Europe as to
the future of the euro as there is a move to control borders, contrary to what the euro and eu is about.

so yes there are a lot of issues to play out firstly this week 11th March, next week 15th
and the french elections next month....

interesting [?] times

Neither Geert Wilders nor Marine Le Pen will make it. Can we move this entire thread into the politics subsection by now? Thanks.
Would rather like to read some Altcoin forcasts following the ETF disapproval instead.

iamnotback

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Quote from: joerazor on March 06, 2017, 06:21:05 PM

I personally see BTC consolidation happening at a $900-$1000 range.

It is plausible. I am not trading, so I won't stress over it. Traders may wish to analyze it deeper.

aoluain

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Quote from: iamnotback on March 06, 2017, 06:05:19 PM

We are entering a massive exodus from the Euro and into dollars and other safe havens outside the collapsing economies of Europe due to BREXIT and will accelerate when Le Pen is elected in France in 2 months. This will also drive an increase in speculation in those assets which are ignited by this flood of capital seeking a home.

....and to a lesser extend the Dutch voting on the 15th of March where another right wing party
like Le Pen's french party may be elected. There is a lot of uncertainty here in Europe as to
the future of the euro as there is a move to control borders, contrary to what the euro and eu is about.

so yes there are a lot of issues to play out firstly this week 11th March, next week 15th
and the french elections next month....

interesting [?] times

joerazor

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I personally see BTC consolidation happening at a $900-$1000 range.

Quote

I am not selling BTC fearing a massive price collapse. Diversifying into best of breed altcoins for more leverage is okay, but this leverage can bite you in both directions.

I was referring to a temporary BTC sell to get hold of altcoins which will probably pump up in price, which makes it a good strategy to gain more BTC on the short-term since the altcoin to BTC ratio will be higher.

Even if Altcoin prices do not get impacted much (Which I highly doubt), you will still be selling your BTC at $1250 and buying back in at the $1100 point you noted which makes not holding BTC the best option. Just my 2 cents.

iamnotback

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Bitcoin is not going to do a double-top at its ATH because that is not what technology adoption curves do (see the chart I posted of Amazon's stock in the past). At worst, it will consolidate at $1100 or so, and continue to move higher this year. We've broken out of the "mountain of premature hope" of the first hump of technology adoption curves. These don't breakout to a new ATH and then crash anew. We'd been climbing the "wall of worry" lately due to block scaling concerns, but the fact remains that Bitcoin is crypto-currency and the altcoins are not (yet). Bitcoin is going higher because it is the reserve currency of all the experimentation in blockchains (regardless of Bitcoin's scaling).

We are entering a massive exodus from the Euro and into dollars and other safe havens outside the collapsing economies of Europe due to BREXIT and will accelerate when Le Pen is elected in France in 2 months. This will also drive an increase in speculation in those assets which are ignited by this flood of capital seeking a home.

There three ETFs under consideration, not just the Winklevoss ETF. Also there sentiment is not expecting a certain approval. Approval sends Bitcoin skyrocketing. Disapproval merely causes a minor consolidation.

I am not selling BTC fearing a massive price collapse. Diversifying into best of breed altcoins for more leverage is okay, but this leverage can bite you in both directions.

Topic: Altcoins coming to their glory in a matter of days! :) - page 2. (Read 2710 times)