Alternative Indications of Price Trends

Bitcoin Swami

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Quote from: GoWest on August 15, 2011, 10:16:06 PM

Let's take a look at the latest data...

New memberships on the forum continue to decline, and we're now at April levels, with even some days in March having higher numbers than what we've seen over the last couple of days.

Google Trends continues to decline, although there was a spike at the beginning of the month. Was the spike a leading indicator of the price recovery? Possibly. Google Trends is telling us that we'll be back in the single digits shortly, though I would say everyone else on this board thinks that is highly unlikely, going into the Bitcoin Conference.

And of course, the chart.

Overall, these alternative indicators predict a continued downtrend. If we continue up past $15, I would say these indicators are not helpful. If we continue back down to $5 and below, then they've proven themselves useful.

The sharp decline of members could be because the site was ripped away from the bitcoin.org homepage. As for the other indicators who knows.

GoWest

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Let's take a look at the latest data...

New memberships on the forum continue to decline, and we're now at April levels, with even some days in March having higher numbers than what we've seen over the last couple of days.

Google Trends continues to decline, although there was a spike at the beginning of the month. Was the spike a leading indicator of the price recovery? Possibly. Google Trends is telling us that we'll be back in the single digits shortly, though I would say everyone else on this board thinks that is highly unlikely, going into the Bitcoin Conference.

And of course, the chart.

Overall, these alternative indicators predict a continued downtrend. If we continue up past $15, I would say these indicators are not helpful. If we continue back down to $5 and below, then they've proven themselves useful.

Oldminer

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Yea a bit contradictory of late I must say...

TiagoTiago

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Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)

I wanna see where this is going

zby

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The google trend looks promising until you realize that it is mostly from the negative press, in the long term this still might turn positive but in the short term it will not mean any break out - so there will be plenty of time to buy at better prices after people realize this. Of course this is pure speculation (but I have sold what I bought on the weekend

GoWest

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Google Insights for Search continues to be a leading indicator of price trends. The search uptrend began on July 30th while the Bitcoin price did not bottom out until August 6th. This looks like a clear breakout from the 5 week-long downtrend and could signal the long awaited post-bubble bull market which could take us to new highs in the coming weeks. I would definitely recommend a buy and hold strategy.

netrin

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GoWest

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Quote from: netrin on August 04, 2011, 10:20:44 PM

I'd be very curious to see you compare your indicators October-January with April-today.

There you go. Back in January, the search volume increase lags the price increase (I was just looking at your chart and comparing it to mine). It makes sense for back then, because there just wasn't a lot of media coverage, if any. The upward price movement would have driven interest, not the other way around. These days, with all the media attention, I believe interest is driving price movement. That being said, a sharp upward price move would also generate further interest, creating a positive feedback loop.

netrin

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Despite enormous chaos in our little economy, the news has been generally positive for weeks. I think journalists who felt the need to call out a ponzi scheme trawled their trolls in previous weeks. Nay-sayers hoping to report 'i told you so' will have to keep their mouths shut for now.

I am not as optimistic as you in the near term. However, I compare the price of today with the price in December 2010. If the correlation is real, we're gonna bounce around for a while but should skyrocket this or next month. I'd be very curious to see you compare your indicators October-January with April-today.

GoWest

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The Google Insights for Search uptrend remains intact. This is the most significant uptrend since July 14th, though there wasn't a notable price change at that time. There was no corresponding increase in the rate of forum membership registrations over the last few days (could be partially because bitcoin.org no longer points to these forums), however, Bitcoin media attention is also on the rise - there was a significant number of new articles/reports on Bitcoin today.

If the search interest continues to increase through to the weekend, I am predicting a price move to the upside by early next week, perhaps back to the $13-$14 range.

Yes, I'm back to predicting prices again. =) What can I say, it's the fun part.

CurbsideProphet

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Quote from: GoWest on August 01, 2011, 11:28:35 PM

Quote from: Edward50 on August 01, 2011, 10:46:51 PM

Quote from: GoWest on July 24, 2011, 09:36:58 AM

before the next big price increase, which could take us to the mid-40 range sometime around August 8th.

LOL, mid-40 range by August 8th. Your right that we are heading back to previous months interest levels, you specifically said mid-may. Do you know the price range in Mid-may? try around $5 dollars, that is where we are heading.

I do not know how you can analyze all that information and conclude we are heading back to previous months interest, which is much lower, and then expect to have a whopping price increase in such a short time when interest is falling and probably will continue to fall.

your analysis proved one thing, SELL SELL SELL, interest is falling and we are heading back to mid-may levels, and will even go back to further lower interest levels.

Yeah, the price prediction was obviously premature, if not baseless. From now on I'll stick with assessing the trend and not predicting prices.

Well, this is the speculation section. Feel free to speculate Wink

GoWest

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Quote from: Edward50 on August 01, 2011, 10:46:51 PM

Quote from: GoWest on July 24, 2011, 09:36:58 AM

before the next big price increase, which could take us to the mid-40 range sometime around August 8th.

LOL, mid-40 range by August 8th. Your right that we are heading back to previous months interest levels, you specifically said mid-may. Do you know the price range in Mid-may? try around $5 dollars, that is where we are heading.

I do not know how you can analyze all that information and conclude we are heading back to previous months interest, which is much lower, and then expect to have a whopping price increase in such a short time when interest is falling and probably will continue to fall.

your analysis proved one thing, SELL SELL SELL, interest is falling and we are heading back to mid-may levels, and will even go back to further lower interest levels.

Yeah, the price prediction was obviously premature, if not baseless. From now on I'll stick with assessing the trend and not predicting prices.

Edward50

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Quote from: GoWest on July 24, 2011, 09:36:58 AM

before the next big price increase, which could take us to the mid-40 range sometime around August 8th.

LOL, mid-40 range by August 8th. Your right that we are heading back to previous months interest levels, you specifically said mid-may. Do you know the price range in Mid-may? try around $5 dollars, that is where we are heading.

I do not know how you can analyze all that information and conclude we are heading back to previous months interest, which is much lower, and then expect to have a whopping price increase in such a short time when interest is falling and probably will continue to fall.

your analysis proved one thing, SELL SELL SELL, interest is falling and we are heading back to mid-may levels, and will even go back to further lower interest levels.

GoWest

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Notable uptick on Google Insights for Search on July 31st. I've noticed, in the past, that these upticks are sometimes "false" and end up being corrected over time, but I will keep an eye on this one. Consider this a warning of possible sentiment change in the near future.

netrin

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Quote from: Tronlet on July 29, 2011, 02:16:54 PM

Quote from: error on July 29, 2011, 01:32:19 PM

Quote from: Tronlet on July 29, 2011, 10:19:41 AM

Quote from: error on July 26, 2011, 11:17:38 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin Swami on July 24, 2011, 11:35:24 PM

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?

It's not, but that doesn't stop people from doing it. In fact, somewhere close to half (give or take) of the people trading Bitcoins do it.

Are you serious? How do you know this and why on earth do they do this, as a charitable service to the rest of us? Cheesy

Remember, you can only buy what someone else is selling, and only sell when someone else is buying. It takes two to tango. Cheesy

Ah, excellent point. I was a bit distracted in my previous post. In the end no one wins or loses overall except the exchanges, since the money someone earns was lost by someone else, of course.

"Husbands cheat more often on their wives than wives cheat on their husbands."

For every coin sold was a coin bought, but not for every winner was there a loser. It is possible that ten fools bought the same coin for a price twice as high as the previous fool but sell to the next fool for twice again. Only the last fool is a potential looser until he sells.

Bitcoin is a scarce resource. Fiat is not. The only losers are the holders of dollars and euros.

GoWest

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24hr volume on MtGox is currently at 7439BTC - I have never seen it so low. Also it looks like today's registration count on the forum is going to be in the 120s, even lower than yesterday.

To put it succinctly, we are in a major lull. Volume has essentially dried up, and new interest in Bitcoin has waned significantly.

The question is, are we at a trough in the trend or are we headed lower?

My recommendation would be to continue accumulating at this level. On a daily basis, we're seeing breakthroughs in accessibility and easy of use. The "green address" approach that was introduced today effectively eliminates transaction delays altogether - that's huge.

Additionally, on a recent Bitcoin Show, the CEO of CampBX mentioned that they're in negotiations to allow for credit-card purchases of Bitcoins, which would be another huge breakthrough, opening the market to a whole other demographic.

I would not be surprised to see other announcements in the coming weeks which will re-invigorate interest in Bitcoin - resulting in a large increase in Bitcoin value.

Until then, we trudge along...

Tronlet

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Quote from: error on July 29, 2011, 01:32:19 PM

Quote from: Tronlet on July 29, 2011, 10:19:41 AM

Quote from: error on July 26, 2011, 11:17:38 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin Swami on July 24, 2011, 11:35:24 PM

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?

It's not, but that doesn't stop people from doing it. In fact, somewhere close to half (give or take) of the people trading Bitcoins do it.

Are you serious? How do you know this and why on earth do they do this, as a charitable service to the rest of us? Cheesy

Remember, you can only buy what someone else is selling, and only sell when someone else is buying. It takes two to tango. Cheesy

Ah, excellent point. I was a bit distracted in my previous post. In the end no one wins or loses overall except the exchanges, since the money someone earns was lost by someone else, of course.

error

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Quote from: Tronlet on July 29, 2011, 10:19:41 AM

Quote from: error on July 26, 2011, 11:17:38 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin Swami on July 24, 2011, 11:35:24 PM

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?

It's not, but that doesn't stop people from doing it. In fact, somewhere close to half (give or take) of the people trading Bitcoins do it.

Are you serious? How do you know this and why on earth do they do this, as a charitable service to the rest of us? Cheesy

Remember, you can only buy what someone else is selling, and only sell when someone else is buying. It takes two to tango. Cheesy

Tronlet

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Quote from: error on July 26, 2011, 11:17:38 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin Swami on July 24, 2011, 11:35:24 PM

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?

It's not, but that doesn't stop people from doing it. In fact, somewhere close to half (give or take) of the people trading Bitcoins do it.

Are you serious? How do you know this and why on earth do they do this, as a charitable service to the rest of us? Cheesy

GoWest

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Yesterday, July 28th, there were only 142 registrations, which is the lowest since May 15th, two-and-a-half months ago.

Assuming this is one of the leading indicators, as I'm postulating, then we're going to be headed lower in the near term.

Topic: Alternative Indications of Price Trends (Read 3518 times)