Topic: Alternative Indications of Price Trends - page 2. (Read 3518 times)

Thank you. It will be interesting to see how your theory pans out. 

Just a quick note that today we hit a one-week high for new member registrations on this forum. 

Yesterday, Google Insights for Search reported high interest from France - it was the first time I've seen France on the top 10 list.

The overall global search popularity still remains low compared to the last two months.

I will keep an eye on the stats and continue to report in this thread.

Not necessarily. You may find there are a bunch of people who bought high and haven't sold (like me), and a bunch who mined long ago who "sold low," where it would be low for me but not for them.

It's not, but that doesn't stop people from doing it. In fact, somewhere close to half (give or take) of the people trading Bitcoins do it.

It may be that the proposed indicators are not predictive, but rather coincident or lagging.  If the rally of the past couple of days persists, it will be interesting to align the turning points of the proposed alternative indicator data series with the bitcoin price series to see whether the rally was indeed predicted, or perhaps merely confirmed.

I put more stake in the indicators that track active bitcoin wallet nodes and transaction bitcoin-days, as proposed elsewhere.

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?

I bought at 25, 23, 20, 18, 16, 15, 14, 13.... each time with more money.  Looks like I finally caught the dagger!!

In effect $17-$14, but I tried to argue "...if I may say, history
has shown bitcoin/dollar cycles of steady plateau, slight declines
before surging up, overshooting, and steady again at new plateaus in
roughly 2-3 month time series. Buying high and selling low is not a
winning strategy on a volatile asset. Despite Mt. Gox getting hacked a
few weeks ago (unfortunately just before your buy in), we're..."

I hope you didn't advise him to follow the "buy high, sell low" strategy!

Thanks for sharing the forum registration (and google) trends. However, your conclusion rests on the premise that new liquidity comes from new members. This may be correct, and certainly new blood would help, but it does not logically follow from the trends.

As a falsifying case, because of the recent collapse and plateau I no longer suggest that ignorant friends buy bitcoin. Indeed one friend sold his positions and despite my arguments does not intend to buy again until prices increase. None the less, I am buying modestly.

He talks about a potential price increase to $40+ around August 8th...

Very interesting analysis, thank you!

Not really. I think it was more like: nothing is really happening right now so let's wait and see.

So, to sum it up into three words....

Buy, Buy, Buy!


Right?
I wish i had some more money i could invest lol.

June 1st was the beginning of the run from approximately $8 to $30 which took place over eight days.



Member sign-ups on this forum have fallen to the level they were at around May 12th, so we can say that interest in Bitcoin is currently around mid-May levels.  Member sign-ups actually rose to the high two-hundreds and above four hundred on May 31st (not shown) before the big price increase to $30, so we should expect to see a comparable rise before the next big up trend.



Google Insights for Search indicates that current interest in Bitcoin continues to slump and is around the May 15th level.  You could also say that we're at the May 28th level, but based on the number of forum signups we're seeing right now, interest seems to be more in line with what we were seeing back in the middle of May.



I would conclude, therefore, that an immediate spike over the next few days is highly unlikely (unless one of the big online players suddenly announces that they're accepting Bitcoin), and that we probably have two more weeks of consolidation left before the next big price increase, which could take us to the mid-40 range sometime around August 8th.  Don't expect a straight line up either, it will probably be a bumpy ride through the 20's as we grapple with several levels of yet-to-be challenged resistance from early to mid June.