Topic: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. - page 2. (Read 433 times)

Yeah sure, and during the bear market people sold a lot.
What if it's just the same people jumping back on board?
Would explain why we did get a decent high, but a lower one than 2017 (because the hype isn't as big as back then).

a few months ago the price was $3000 and now the price is $11800, it shows that people have bought a lot and you can look at the altcoins that are dropping too much, and in my opinion the price of the altcoins is dropping a lot why are people selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin. and why are people selling their altcoins to buy bitcoins? because of halving, because of the possible entry of BAKKT and other companies. in my opinion the price will increase very long term

Bitcoin Price Is Currently Sitting in Its Historic Top 2% Range

as i said, in the long run the price will be very good

I wouldnt call forks a dividend, thats more like a scrip or fracturing of value into the separate fork which people then choose sell and speculate on the main fork being the most sucessfull which was true in this case.    So thats some speculating losing over others who retained the bcash or whichever fork.

BTC will return a yield if you place it with an institution.   There is no cash in the world that returns interest unless you place it with some bank of some kind, originally those banks often went broke.  The interest was a return for the risk hence the interest could be quite good.

We dont have that system with modern FIAT cash now really but bitcoin can given over to float in a few different businesses and return a yield and the original amount.   You do risk and trust that company to continue on without default, so its risk vs return normal capitalism.

I actually showed multiple long term pictures already.

Is it really bullish when looking at it since 2014?

Long term trends > short term trends. This is why charting the daily/weekly chart is actually useful for traders, while looking at the 1-minute chart is just chaotic noise. Over the long term, markets revert to the mean. For Bitcoin, that's a very well established long term uptrend.


Zoom out to the monthly chart. How likely is it these "peaks" will even be noticeable in the long term?

but...
...the 2019 high is 1/3 lower than the 2017/18 high.
...since the 2019 high we had two more peaks - each one lower than the one before that
...since the august uptrend we had like 5-6 peaks, each one lower than the one that came before it

Does this sound or look bullish to you?



Just like all of you I hope for btc to break out towards new highs and I think the current world economy doesn't look too bad for it. But I am not delusional and realize that it might very well go in the other direction.

People who are locked in the past can never move to future, I may have butchered the translation of that from my language but that is true in any language. If you still think that what happened in bitcoins past will repeat itself in the future you are wrong, you are dead wrong.

The notion that "history repeats itself" then you are super wrong, people do take out lessons from the wrongs that has been done in the past and we move from that. Maybe we are not progressing as well as we should and maybe sometimes we take a step back or two but eventually humanity always goes further and so does everything with it. Bitcoin do not have a 4 year cycle nor does it do things like people expect it to do, just because 2017 was a peak doesn't mean 2021-2022 will be neither, we are already in a bull market since we moved from 3k to 11k already if you haven't noticed.

Bitcoin bull run can start at any time, and it does not have to follow a cycle, the whole thing depends on the amount of investors that would pick interest at a particular time, and we can see that the time of interest of each investors varies, what usually pull crowd to make investment at once is if there is a publicity, a promo or something strong that would touch people and call their attention at once.

I think in 2017, ico contributed to why bitcoin price soared that high, we got lots of investors that came in at once to make investment, and I am sure that a factor will also come soon that will attract people to bitcoin, FacebookLibra coin would have been one, but it seem that one may not really be launched.

The market is not saturated at all, what is the percentage of people in bitcoin compared to the percentage of people in other markets, it is still very little.

Sure, it could be just a correction. I just want to point out that it is also possible that we already have reached the peak and are now starting to decline. Sure, it could go bullish like this but it also could go bearish like that.

I appreciate it! I tried to spark a discussion on reddit but /r/bitcoin is literally a worse echo chamber than /r/the_donald 


I think the only people that (on average) are making money with bitcoin trading are the trading platforms and whales that can do market manipulation. Other than that I think bitcoin is too unpredictable for trading.


no u


Yes I am aware of that. But right now we are down quite a bit from the last all time high and also down from the 'all year high'.
You could even draw a bearish trendline on the all-time-chart.


How do you know that it 'simply is false'? Did you take a look into your glass sphere?
Seriously though, 1% sounds like WAY too much. But let's say it was 1% - how do you know that 1% isn't the point of market saturation?

So, literally the same as you are doing.

The 2018 super-hype was big enough to reach basically every person that reads the news and thus everyone willing to get into bitcoin already has done so.

Okay that's great, I wasn't aware of that.
But still, it's not something you could rely on so it's not really comparable to dividends.

As far as Bitcoin not paying out dividends, it's not entirely true. Bitcoin holders have been generously rewarded with a wide variety of forks (forks you wouldn't have for free if you didn't hold Bitcoin prior to the splits).

Bcash was like an insane dividend. I don't hold my coins on an exchange so I couldn't cash them out at the highest possible price of over 0.4BTC, but I still managed to net an average of 0.19BTC per coin. Where do you get that?

Then we had BTG of which I managed to net an average of 0.03BTC. There have been way more forks but these two turned out to be the most rewarding. I still think that we will see more forks when the bull run really kicks in.

sorry, there is no such thing as "4 year cycle" in bitcoin. it only happened once in past 10 years. and now people are forcing themselves into believing there is such trend by only relying on that one time (2013 to 2017)!
that doesn't make it a cycle.

when people talk about "long term" and bullishness of bitcoin they are talking about the over all trend that happens over the years not in some couple of months or even one year. meaning price may be down this month (for example) but it will be up in a year from now.

that is an entirely different discussion and it is not something you could see by drawing some lines on the charts!
your argument is that bitcoin adoption has come to an end and no more people are going to ever adopt bitcoin. that simply is false. the adoption has not yet happened for more than 1% of the world. we still have a long way to go.

your "theory" doesn't have any reasons in it. you are basically making guesses based on your own feeling.
try explaining it and come up with reasons first. for example why do you think bitcoin adoption has come to an end while it is just starting up?

you can have different analysis result depending on how you draw your lines and what time period you use
if you draw from jan 2018, it shows downtrend patterns, bounce in march 2019 but still not back up yet
if you draw from jan 2019, it shows sideway movements and beginning of bullish market in april 2019
this is why any technical analysis cannot be 100% accurate, it depends on what data you use and how you perceive it

imo, we are in bullish market now... I am just using the last 6 months data and
by observing the trade volume and the strength of buy over sell (book and done order)

BTC already went up on quite a regular basis so that was a bull market ?   We gained 20%, isnt that the official definition.    Problem is bear market is losing 20% which BTC is quite happy to do also and then regain it, hard to say with a price that varies this much.

It shouldnt last positively forever, I think your charts are perfectly reasonable.   Are you new to the forum, far too rational a post for somebody new :p
  I'm inclined to think we go down just because we lost the trend up, had to happen at some point.  So far we've mostly been observed to go sideways, it could be drawn negatively like you indicate and I dont disagree but its a unproven so far.   It aint easy being a bear in the concrete jungle, a bull can always eat grass and bide its time.

In natural markets it is harder to be a bear also, the moves are sharper and corrections to the upside are rapid even if the overall trend were be negative.
   My solution is to try what I think can be turning points, if I'm wrong and we exceed a previous high then its fair to have a stop loss on any short there.   Of course price always hunts out the stops but thats my best effort.   I dont know if Asia trading now will be more bullish and break up some but a sell would be nice



Can it keep below 12076


The majority is from speculation but there is business that turns over in Bitcoin and even could give a yield for its operations.  Bitcoin can only be said to be backed by its utility and by the people who are enabled by its continued existence.  Its never going to zero in its community and economics and its fair to say its still growing barring speculative involvements flowing in and out.

Bitcoin's highest one month gain this year so far has been ~85%. 

You can actually have a bull run within a bear market, but the thing is that people with some sort of a bias against Bitcoin will always find a way to be bearish. Charts can be made to look super bullish or super bearish depending on the narrative you're pushing.

I am actually more appreciative of the bearish predictions than the bullish predictions because we already have so many moon predictions. Too bad people here are calling everyone with a bearish mindset fud spreaders or trolls. If my memory serves me well, Kwukduck has been the only actual fud spreader and troll we had. Too bad he's no longer active because it was very amusing seeing people go nuts on him. 

Bitcoin is way passed the 10,000$ mark several times already to call this Bull market fake. I don't know about you but BTC gaining back 255% of its value in less than a month says that this real bull market and is something way overdue, we waited for Bitcoin to rise back up again for 18 months and it just happened in a timely passion. Before you even label this a bear market you should try to identity what a bear market looks like. Simply a bear market doesn't have an upward trend and the volume is not always in favor of the buyers. You will see the exact opposite in the market today.

One month is not really a bigger time frame atleast you need to consider the quadrants then you can see the price growth at most of the quadrants you are looking into.We are seeing bitcoin to be bullish since it was created only few months it went down called bearish but soon they will recover and stats to rule the crypto market.

People knew about things like gold for thousands of years and yet it still has bull and bear markets. The factor of novelty is just one reason why Bitcoin was growing, but there are many others, like scarcity, which grows with halvenings, growing adoption, usability as store of value and so on. Maybe we will have bear market soon, but it wouldn't be for the reasons that you have mentioned.

We arent in a bull run yet. Bitcoin is just recovering.

Dont you see the 12k mark? It keeps going up there then it falls again. 12-15k is the zone where the recovery ends and the bull run starts. The real bull run will bring bitcoin to six digits.

Actually, it's not so contrarian as you might think, the early part of your theory. Now if we remember what the nervous bulls were talking about last year especially during the height of Bakkt hype, they insist that institutional investment is what will trigger the next bullrun.

Now that hasn't happened, according to themselves, neither will it happen soon so 2019 is just the natural uptake against a backdrop of poor global economic outlooks.

They who said it might not admit it but if they believed in their convictions of institutional money induced bullruns, then they must admit 2019 s simply not the year for it.

When bitcoin rise from below $3150 to $5000 in April 2019, it is a clear indication that the bearish trend that commenced in January 2018 has ended and Bitcoin has resumed the bullish trend. I see all the long term indicators showing a sign of the beginning of a new bullish trend that will lead bitcoin to $100,000 or above and that might happen very soon. I have decided to keep holding and I strongly disagree with your views that bitcoin is in a downward trend. I don't think the correction is a change of trend directions!