Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. - page 3.

tuner324

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Quote from: bob123 on August 07, 2019, 07:51:34 AM

Quote from: tuner324 on August 07, 2019, 07:39:43 AM

Also, while FIAT currency could be created out of thin air, the currency in my coutnry has nearly 0 inflation in the last 10 years and thus is really stable

And which currency is that ?

I am not aware of a single FIAT currency with almost 0 inflation within the last 10 years.

Swiss franc.
Yeah sure it's a currency that is more stable than most. But still, inflation in the euro/dollar is not that high.

Quote

Well.. the average lifespan of a FIAT currency is 27 years.

I really doubt that, sounds like fake news.
Also there are many reasons why this isn't a relevant number even IF it was true. E.g. since removal of the gold standard not that much time has passed. Also some fiat currencies didn't 'die' as in lose all it's value but rather got replaced (euro) which isn't really an issue for the consumer.

bob123

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Quote from: tuner324 on August 07, 2019, 07:39:43 AM

But it appears to me like 99% are drawing the lines like it HAS to go up, when in my opinion there is also a significant chance of btc actually not going up!

Well yes.. almost all 'analysts' are just people who have fun drawing some lines.
BTC could pump to 100k$ within a month, but it could also drop to 100$ in the same timeframe.

The probability for both is pretty low, but still possible tho.

Quote from: tuner324 on August 07, 2019, 07:39:43 AM

Also, while FIAT currency could be created out of thin air, the currency in my coutnry has nearly 0 inflation in the last 10 years and thus is really stable

And which currency is that ?

I am not aware of a single FIAT currency with almost 0 inflation within the last 10 years.

Quote from: tuner324 on August 07, 2019, 07:39:43 AM

So the fiat system seems to work really well in the real world?

Well.. the average lifespan of a FIAT currency is 27 years.
And this fact doesn't sound very satisfying to me.

tuner324

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Quote from: bob123 on August 07, 2019, 07:19:27 AM

BTC price quotes:
01.06.2015: ~230 $
01.06.2016: ~530 $
01.06.2017: ~2.350 $
01.06.2018: ~7.500 $
01.06.2019: ~8.500 $

Yeah that's looking good, I can't deny that!

Quote from: bob123 on August 07, 2019, 07:19:27 AM

You just draw some lines on a chart since the ATH.

I mean.. look, i can draw lines too:

https://i.imgur.com/cXTVG8D.png

I kinda did 'just draw some lines on a chart' but that's my point - depending on how you draw the lines, btc seems to be going up or going down. Simply depends on how you look at it/draw the lines. But it appears to me like 99% are drawing the lines like it HAS to go up, when in my opinion there is also a significant chance of btc actually not going up!

Quote from: bob123 on August 07, 2019, 07:19:27 AM

Quote from: tuner324 on August 07, 2019, 05:33:15 AM

I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money. Also bitcoin is not really backed up by anything and it doesn't pay out dividends.

Same applies to FIAT currencies.
The USD is not backed by anything either.

And both can be created out of thin air without any maximum supply.. oh wait.. this only applies to FIAT currencies Tongue

Sure, but from what I know investors invest in stock, gold, silver, real estate etc and not in the USD?!
Also, while FIAT currency could be created out of thin air, the currency in my coutnry has nearly 0 inflation in the last 10 years and thus is really stable, where as bitcoin gains/loses a few hundret percent within months. So the fiat system seems to work really well in the real world?

bob123

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Quote from: tuner324 on August 07, 2019, 05:33:15 AM

So why is it decreasing in mid term and long term (see my chart images)?

BTC price quotes:

01.06.2015: ~230 $
01.06.2016: ~530 $
01.06.2017: ~2.350 $
01.06.2018: ~7.500 $
01.06.2019: ~8.500 $

I don't know man.. doesn't seem like a long term price decrease to me.

Maybe we have different definitions of a price decrease and/or long term ?

You just draw some lines on a chart since the ATH.

I mean.. look, i can draw lines too:

Seems like 1.1k $ in 11/2013 was the highest bitcoin will ever reach. Clear downtrend, don't expect BTC to break 1.1k$ anymore.. oh.. wait.

Quote from: tuner324 on August 07, 2019, 05:33:15 AM

I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money. Also bitcoin is not really backed up by anything and it doesn't pay out dividends.

Same applies to FIAT currencies.
The USD is not backed by anything either.

And both can be created out of thin air without any maximum supply.. oh wait.. this only applies to FIAT currencies Tongue

jossiel

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DGbet.fun - Crypto Sportsbook

I respect your analysis and insight about the current move of bitcoin and I cant blame you for thinking this isnt a bull run.

But there is one thing that we can always bear to our minds and that is bitcoin is a definite unpredictable digital asset. It has been told to be one of the best store of value by most and that's why every person that is researching about it dont want to miss this lifetime opportunity.

If you are worrying about who will push the price up, well the total market cap isnt even compose of the whole world market involvement. There are still big players, institutions and countries that can push the price.

tuner324

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Quote from: Baronets on August 07, 2019, 03:48:23 AM

Because of this, it will always increase in value at an inflation beating rate in my opinion.

So why is it decreasing in mid term and long term (see my chart images)?

Quote from: Baronets on August 07, 2019, 03:48:23 AM

Bitcoin created a completely new asset class, and it is unique within that class. It is now being accumulated by the elite and the asset managers as an addition to precious metals and other enduring assets.

I don't completely disagree. That could be the future for bitcoin.
But right now, it feels more like whales are placing bets on the price to go up/down and then dump/buy a ton of bitcoin to win their bet. I really think whales are a big problem for the future of bitcoin.

I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money. Also bitcoin is not really backed up by anything and it doesn't pay out dividends.

Baronets

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Baronets is the Jet Cash domain management service

Bitcoin created a completely new asset class, and it is unique within that class. It is now being accumulated by the elite and the asset managers as an addition to precious metals and other enduring assets. Because of this, it will always increase in value at an inflation beating rate in my opinion.

tuner324

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Hello guys,

I am aware of the '4 year cycle' and that nearly everybody here believes bitcoin is long term bullish. I am not saying I totally disagree with that, but I do think other options are also possible and should be discussed!

When looking at the charts, it's pretty obvious that we are in a downtrend since more than one month:
https://i.ibb.co/bgbbBf1/07-08-2019-2.png

Even at the bigger timeframe, it doesn't look like bitcoin is going to the moon:
https://i.ibb.co/sHC8Cd7/07-08-2019-3.png

Could it be that the 2018 all time high kind of 'saturated' the bitcoin market so that most people that are interested in btc already know of it (and bought in if they wanted to do so), thus future highs will never reach the same price again? In the previous (before 2018) bull markets, it was always far from saturation meaning only some people (more every cycle) knew about bitcoin. But in 2018 literally everyone that reads news learned about bitcoin (and invested if he believed in it). So, now we simply lack investors that could push the price up.

What do you think? Bullshit theory? Could it be true?

In any way, I think it will soon show whether the recent uptrend or the downtrend will be stronger:
https://i.ibb.co/Qbfbx9F/07-08-2019.png
I think whether the price will then go up or down will be decisive for the btc price trend for at least a week.

Topic: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. - page 3. (Read 433 times)