Topic: Am i wrong thinking Butterflylabs is the end of Bitcoins ? (Read 5589 times)

It's truly sad how little some think of their fellow man.

The governments of the world are doing a great job of dividing and conquering humanity.

I also think ASICs are bad news for democracy in bitcoin-dom. ASICs will simply never be as widely distributed as CPUs. I would turn the whole bitcoin network back to CPU mining only, if only there was an algorithm which could not run on GPUs FPGAs or ASICs. Trouble is, anything you can softcode on a CPU, you can hardcode into an ASIC.

We *could* perhaps try a non-parallelizable algorithm, ohhhh, such as:

HASH_i = SHA256(BLOCKDATA + NONCE + HASH_(i-1))

and iterate at least N times where N is a measure of the difficulty. However, this would take as long to verify as it does to compute, so that's no good.  In fact, I'm not there there could possibly exist a long-running non-parallelizable algorithm which is difficult to compute but simple to verify. Any information-theorists out there that can shed light on this?

It makes me think of the phrase "the ultimate form of wealth is energy" (or something similar, origin unknown to me), except I'd modify it and say "the ultimate form of wealth is the efficient use of energy". Those with the energy and the means to use it efficiently, get the money. Only thing is, John Doe won't ever understand why *he* should buy a BFL Single or similar in order to protect the network. Right now the police and the banks protect our money from forgers and thieves, and we all understand that. Telling people that the only way to protect their bitcoins is to expend *energy* doing so, is so completely far out that majority of people will just glaze over and talk about the weather instead.  The curious minority will shrug their shoulders and wonder if there wasn't a simpler way but will trust that "someone else" will do it. The geeky ultra-minority will try to understand why, and some of those will actually go out and buy a mining rig.

I would, of course, disagree with that.  Mining consistently will average out over time.  If I were to leave my 35Mhs GPU mining for the long term it would eventually solve some blocks here and there.  A statistical analysis may say it would take years for solve a block but it could be the next share too, there is no way of knowing for sure.  So if for some reason all ASIC's left Bitcoin that GPU would still be there hashing and picking up the slack.

When/if my ASIC ever shows up I'm not going to keep mining that old GPU, you understand that I hope.


That's a more generous classification than most people, probably, group me in, so I'll take it.


Dependence?  How so?


Yep, sad but true.


This line of reasoning makes no sense to me.  So once the folks that won the gamble on the Avalons recoup their investment they are just going to turn them off?


FPGA's were just the stepping stone to ASIC's.  That is the normal technological progression in the high tech, or sometimes not so hi tech, electronics industries.

FPGA's were just a fart in a wirlwind compared to GPU's or even CPU's in the progression of Bitcoin mining.
Sam

I'm not sure if 'consistent' mining has any effect by itself, at least not anymore. I'd say that mining consistently is more of a classification of a person. If someone mines consistently then that person is good for bitcoin because of his dedication.
There are so many people hashing right now that they all can act inconsistently and the network would still be ok.

Also i think you underestimate bitcoins dependence on these people going for instant ROI.
The thing with the asics is that they have a pretty steep cutoff point when it comes to ROI so that tends to divide the short term from the long term people. This round is pretty much for the instant ROI people because the chips will be obsolete soon. Noone investing long time will be helped by these asics. FPGA's were the long term choice while they lasted.

Kind of like raising the minimum wage, eh


I don't necessarily disagree with your statement/analysis.  But it reveals your thinking in terms in making money in mining now, as many of the most vocal people in Bitcoin are.

There are many that are mining for the long term.  I'm not expecting to get a return on my investment before the next difficulty increase(s), after which I need to buy more hardware, because I didn't quite make it, in order to recoup my previous investments.  I'm investing in hardware that can mine for a long period of time at a stable hash rate.  Hopefully these devices can do that reliably.

I have no problem with people mining for an ROI immediately but that ultimately doesn't help bitcoin.  Mining consistently and reliably for decades does or at least more so.
Sam

OP: have you considered trading? You can do or make things to earn bitcoins, you can buy things with bitcoins. I don't see how "all coins will end up in few powerful banks", unless we all decide to give them away and never buy or earn them back.

Yeah, well, FORTUNATELY not all gold comes from the US... 

Gold survived because it was tamed and institutionalized. Also, gold has been used as a defacto material of value since the stone age.
So there are pretty good historic and economic reasons for why gold survived.
Bitcoin on the other hand..

Absolute hashing power is irrelevant from a mining perspective. The GH/s you mention mean nothing except they make the network stronger.
The relative hashing power is what everyone is after. So this huge hashing power of 60GH/s will be the same as a GPU a few months back or a CPU a few years ago. If all the ordered ASICS are delivered you will be hashing $0.20 per day with yer 60GH/s rig before this year ends .
So in fact this ASIC round just made people pay up for an increase in difficulty.
The ONLY winners are the ASIC people and the people who got their ASICs soon enough. All other people will need to spend money to stay at the same level.

The low prices of the GH just mean that people with lots of budget can buy themselfs in esrly while leaving the rest out.
The other thing is that ASICS are specialized hardware. It means that everyone who mined with a GPU (because they happened to have one) will be irrelevant.
So ASICS are the first generation mining hardware that must be bought (and in fact it is already too late to buy/order because by the time it gets delivered your ROI is almost like a GPU 1 year ago) while at the same time killing off any general purpose solutions.

The Jalapeno will be worth almost nothing by the time BFL delivers and will be virtually worthless by summer this year.
Just do the math and see how much (little) a GH can mine you once all current batches are delivered.
There is no point in buying ASICS anymore unless someone makes them waaaay faster and that will only last untill everyone buys one of those.

Before the the gold rush in 1849 one could walk along creeks around San Francisco and pick up gold nuggets. Now you would need a million dollars of equipment to find one nugget. Yet gold survives.

If growth is going to kill bitcoin then bitcoin was dead as soon as the 2nd person started mining!

How is $1500 a barrier to entry into bitcoin mining?  How many people have actually spent less than that on their GPU rigs?  If a person can't spend $1200 to $1500 to get a 60+ Ghs ASIC they can enter for as little as a $150 for 4.5Ghs if they choose.

ASIC's are putting more hashing power into more peoples hands at lower prices and lower cost's of operation than previously was possible.  That is not going to kill bitcoin.
Sam

I do.

The more specialized the hardware becomes the more it is pushed into hands of people already owning money.
These hashing algorthms cannot be optimized indefinitely and so we are on a path of diminishing returns.
There will come a time that a small benefit in hashrate will cost a fortune and only a few people will be able to take the risk/gough up the dough.
These will be the people capable of mining the most.

Two problems.
1) By mining more they have more. They can excert more power over others and everything bitcoin stands for will be negated. Governments would just be exchanged for a handfull of individuals but the same power hunger remains.
2) By not spending a lot they can drive the price up for people not mining. This creates a barrier of entry to the system.

Effectively bitcoin has become a system where the person with the most money will win.
You can already see this in how BFL did their 1/3 thing to distribute the hashrate more evenly.
Otherwise they would propably have just been bought out by a few people.
So yeah, this growth cycle thing is going to kill bitcoin some day.
For one, people unable to invest $1500 into mining will be left out.
The democratic nature will be lost forever and a need for institutions will rise to protect us from the elite.
Maybe you're right and nothing has changed...
The problem is that bitcoin was supposed to make change.

People here are talking like we are going to loose a bunch of Bitcoin miners?  How many GPU based miners are going to pack up and leave Bitcoin altogether?  I don't know of any!

Most Bitcoin miners using GPU's are going to use those GPU's for other uses.  But all of the miners I've read replies from are getting an ASIC of some type as well and using their GPU's for other things or selling them and recouping even more of their original investment.

Once ASIC's come to full fruition the cost entry to mining will be at an all time low.  You can get a $150 mining device.  You can get a mid range system for $1200 to $1500.  These price ranges are less then what most GPU miners had spent.  And the ASIC's will have a low power consumption so you can just stick them in the corner somewhere and forget about them and they will hash whatever they will hash.

I'm not quitting Bitcoin mining.  Is anyone else?
Sam

bitcoin will only get stronger as mining hardware improves. If there are large hoarders of bitcoin yes they will become very rich but in the same the value of bitcoin will rise dramatically because of ever growing demand and user base. this will pave the way for the end of bitcoin trades for everone because we will be trading in satoshis (bitcoin fractions). People seem to be talking like this is the end of bitcoin, i strongly believe that we are still the pioneers in it. bitcoin has so much room for growth. The key for bitcoin to grow is the usability for the non tech savvy with new apps and ease of access around the world. this creates a new major profit opportunity to those who have good ideas and the knowledge on building these apps and services. I have mad a commitment to myself to not be one of the people who look back in years to come and say I wish I thought of that or I wish I did that.
Butterfly labs and avalon has changed the way bitcoin will grow because the teck savvy who like to build there own hardware will have to step up the game or start thinking of new ways they can help and profit from the bitcoin network. A new user base will come in as bitcoin expands to the non nerd type with the new apps and it will gain mainstream strength.
I may be wrong, I don't care if I am though I'm going to take the chance in bitcoin as every1 who is in it has already done.

theirs my rant. lol      

 Thanks for all the replies and like i said i am new Bitcoins and only found out about it because i was folding Proteins for free since i had the hardware i did i wanted to put it to use rather then sitting. When i heard about Bitcoins it really pulled me in. Lol no i never though i would get rich with the high power bills and the low hashrate of 2 7970's and 2 6970's on 2 separate machines. I guess it will be like you guys said a great currency for a small community. But there is no doubt this leaves a huge open door for another online currency to come take over. Regardless of how many coins are spent my opinion is the more people using the currency will make it last and become a stable currency i guess you could say.For instance how many people daily use Paypal over bitcoin? or there credit card. There has to be something to draw people in and mining brought allot of people in. I just get this feeling the more i read threads that Bitcoins are not aiming to be a real online currency at all.To have a real currency you need more then a couple Millionaire bitcoin holders spending it. For instance i buy a bag of peanuts and give tons to a few people in my area as a currency then sure we would be able to spend back and forth forever but thats as far as it would go. but the more we brought people into out peanut currency the greater our economy would become.

 Sorry but i truly believe that more people need to be brought into Bitcoins regardless if its mining or not. But i see no benefit of Miners selling there Bitcoins and forgetting all about Bitcoins. Most Miners are humans that enjoy Bitcoins because 1 its fun 2 we think its a great idea 3 we tell all our friends to get involved. Next we start investing out coins plus ones we buy back into the community because like you said small miners don't make much coin really so we buy it also.

 I dont know i really appreciate the reply's and never imagines there would be so many so thank you guys.

Bitcoin to me is fun and something i highly believe in and mining is fun as hell at the moment.


 I guess we just have to wait and see but still i am not convinced at all. I think this was predicted as part of the fall of bitcoin and now its finally begun. How many years for the fall or if it will be corrected who knows.I really think it will be replaced personally as its so easy at this point. All that needs to happen is a new currency to come on and lure in tons of people rather then the few and bitcoin will be there for the few but the mass of the population would use the new currency.

 I only come to this conclusion from what i read in replies and in other forums. I dont think losing small or any miners is good as thats more people gone from bitcoin.So technically what i get from reading is all you really need is 2 holders of bitcoins each owning 50% of all the coins and they juggle them back and forth and this would be considered a new online currency?

 Losing people is not good. Losing small medium or large miners are not good as they are also people who have more friends that are people. All these people are the community .

Like i always said though i love the original concept of Bitcoin and will mine and invest and spend and buy until the end or like the majority will change to a newer more appealing online currency with the same values comes along. Just after this much time i just think its strange that Bitcoin is not even considered a currency on most Online stores.I am aware some do but by the value of the coin and how long its been out it should at very least be accepted by computer hardware stores etc by now.

 Very cool idea and even though im a small part of it i am proud to be part of it. I dont know how many people i got into mining of buying and investing coins but its allot and i imagine each of you have probally done the same. Only point is losing people is not a good thing in my opinion.


 Like i said many times and will repeat this is only my opinion from reading in this forum and others like it and many of you know way more then i do.

Take Care Guys and again Thank you for the replies.

I have made an investment in bitcoin because it solves a number of issues related to payment taking in business transactions.  Weather or not my mining hardware will ride the mining wave and 'make me rich!' is inconsequential because if I have a more economical business success will follow.

The important thing about ASIC hardware is that fewer miners are required to maintain the block chains.  ASIC to me is an improvement over GPUs because they will provide me stability against difficulty/price fluctuations.  Why are there so many haters/chicken little's on these forums?  Sit back, relax, enjoy the ant pile.

Viva bitcoin!

 I dont know why people think Miners mine as a get rich quick scheme at least small miners. The only reason i even know Bitcoins exist is because i am a system builder /Modder. I never planned on getting anything back as the builds i am using are nt simple mining machines they are Mods that have been in magazines and won many awards. What i am trying to say is just 1 of my builds was insured for $10,000.00 when it was traveling with a sponsor. So like i said i never intended on getting rich with a total hash rate  1320mhps on one machine and 900mhps on the other when each machines costs me way more then the costs of ASIC's.

 My whole reason for getting into Bitcoin was i had the hardware siting here and i really liked the whole concept of Bitcoins and i think whoever said mining doesn't bring people to get interested in Bitcoins is totally wrong. Yes of course i planned on Mining at first. This is a Currency that on one webpage you can read how big of a scam it is and how its a great failure from the start yet on another you can read how incredible it is. I happen to believe it can be incredible. My individual plan was to first Mine on these machines and Invest the coins ,Gamble the coins etc to see how it goes. Yes i could simply sell some equipment as i have like 6 top end builds here and buy ASIC's but personally i think i will wait and watch what happens before making a crazy decision like that.

 What all that, was basically trying to say is i def think mining gets many interested in bitcoins as well as silly bunny runs etc. Not because they get rich but because it intrigues them to get involved.

 And also as was even just said by someone else already 50% of all Bitcoins have been Mined. This scares me because i think eventually this will be no different then the Governed money you are trying to get away from. The system will have the Federal Reserve (Person running huge hash rates and holding the coins) In any currency online or not money is power and control. And all the other few people running huge hash rates with become the banks. Mining on PC's will be gone so there goes a huge number of new people getting into bitcoins i believe this strongly as many get pulled in by mining. Hell i know people trying to mine on laptops. Are they making money now . But they are now interested in bitcoin and will buy them to get involved further.

 Honestly i dont even see how buying ASIC's. would help even for mining as i just see bitcoin becoming a battle between a few people that own the coins at a certain point and by no means a currency.

 Please ember this is all just my outlook on things from what i read as i came into bitcoin new so i seen both sides. The people and articles saying its doomed from the start to the people that say its great.The funny part is the reasons they say it would be doomed was before ASIC's even existed . They though just GPU's were going to end it to fast.


 Thanks all for all the replies they are very interesting to read ,all the opinions.

 Will i buy a few ASIC's ? I really cant say as my Equipment now is worth allot of cash as they are real PC's that have multiple uses vs a Box that could be obsolete if a newer technology is released 1 month later.
Also since i am only doing it for fun and to many eventually donate some coins to some charity's i will just keep plugging away on my 2 useless little machines that at least have a worth of $5000.00 + each as you can see i will never pull in a profit Lol . But just being part of Bitcoin is the exciting part. And please dont get me wrong i want bitcoin to be Huge as i also believe in a few other online things id rather not speak of do to being judged but anything that is for us and free from political bullshit interests me.

 Sorry for the novel sized Post. Lol

Take Care
MybadOmen