Perhaps you weren't around, but people said the same thing about the switch from CPUs to GPUs.
^^This!
I kinda was under the assumption the Bitcoins were a huge innovation that would eventually be used by the majority of people as an online currency. I think that idea is out the window.
I don't see what bitcoins being used by the majority of people as an online currency has todo with the fact who generates them, or on what hardware they do it.There's no need to be a miner at all to use Bitcoin as an online currency, a user doesn't really care who creates it.
If you wanted to become a decent miner before, you needed to invest in a lot of decent GPUs, or FPGAs,
if you want to become a decent miner now, you need to invest in (at least) a couple of ASICs.
ASICs don't change anything! (except for botnets, hopefully)
I do.
The more specialized the hardware becomes the more it is pushed into hands of people already owning money.
These hashing algorthms cannot be optimized indefinitely and so we are on a path of diminishing returns.
There will come a time that a small benefit in hashrate will cost a fortune and only a few people will be able to take the risk/gough up the dough.
These will be the people capable of mining the most.
Two problems.
1) By mining more they have more. They can excert more power over others and everything bitcoin stands for will be negated. Governments would just be exchanged for a handfull of individuals but the same power hunger remains.
2) By not spending a lot they can drive the price up for people not mining. This creates a barrier of entry to the system.
Effectively bitcoin has become a system where the person with the most money will win.
You can already see this in how BFL did their 1/3 thing to distribute the hashrate more evenly.
Otherwise they would propably have just been bought out by a few people.
So yeah, this growth cycle thing is going to kill bitcoin some day.
For one, people unable to invest $1500 into mining will be left out.
The democratic nature will be lost forever and a need for institutions will rise to protect us from the elite.
Maybe you're right and nothing has changed...
The problem is that bitcoin was supposed to make change.