Topic: A.M. Singer Fundamental Bitcoin Analysis (Read 585 times)
Lowered prices. Time to scale.
I do not trust such analyses, because you can not actually predict the price of bitcoin, no one has managed to do it several times in a row.
I don’t predict the price. I tell people the natural market pressure. Whether it makes sense for the whales to be buying, holding, or selling.
And dude, check out my previous posts on 13k sustainability , 11k, etc it’s been massively inflated for a while now. My analysis identifies that.
Market analysis is always good and it can easily act as the basis to enter any trade. I guess it works similarly to whatever forex trading signals move. At times, it becomes very frustrating whenever market analysis does not go the way as predicted by specialists behind the speculations.
when its cheaper to mine they will mine and then sell.. causing price drop
when its not so cheap to mine and inconvenient at the time to start mining they will just buy, causing a price rise
when its not so cheap to mine and inconvenient at the time to start mining they will just buy, causing a price rise
If they choose to buy instead, the difficulty will fall, allowing other miners to mine and not buy
If they choose to mine, the difficulty will rise, causing other miners to stop mining and buy.
In both cases, the demand does not change, so the price does not change.
adding to this. when mining and price are soo close that there is no profit in it they wont sell (hlping creating a support line)
they also wont sell at a loss
they also wont sell at a loss
Miners will sell at a loss. They must sell in order to cover their costs. Also, if traders never sell at a loss, wouldn't the price still be at $20,000?
a. the main mining farms that set the baseline value have lower costs than everyday joe. what you find is the little hobbiests with higher costs give up first. which is a small fraction of hashing rate but translates to alot of market turbulance.
in short a preference to buy does not translate into a difficulty drop... sorry it just dont
the main mining farms dont just turn off their rigs at the whims of the market. thats for the small hobbiests to play that game.
the main mining farms actually do OTC trades. and its the OTC traders that then play the whims of the markets when pools dont want to sell at a low rate.
maybe i dumbed down things a littlebit too much
I do not trust such analyses, because you can not actually predict the price of bitcoin, no one has managed to do it several times in a row.
from my view its not about predicting a price. its about. to put it in other terms the difference between the wholesale and the retail price.
if there is too much of a gap then that means too much hype/speculation//bubble and not a good time to buy. when the gap is small its good value and good time to buy
again big gap = large potential for a dip
again small gap=small potential for a dip
I do not trust such analyses, because you can not actually predict the price of bitcoin, no one has managed to do it several times in a row.
I will be upgrading the efficiencies of all the creation costs next Monday.
New analysis comes out tomorrow!
https://www.amsinger.org/
Know what’s supported, know everything you need to know about crypto.
Aaron
https://www.amsinger.org/
Know what’s supported, know everything you need to know about crypto.
Aaron
Nope, no I wont. I'm pretty sure I know how mining farms operate and what they are in business for and how they go about selling their block rewards they hit. I understand perfectly well this concept doesn't make sense for multiple reasons.
That’s cool man, you’ve made your point. Hope you have a good day.
What do you mean its logical? Miners dont buy and sell as large traders. The mine, and insta sell most of the large ones at least. There is no buying or selling based on creation costs. If they mine at a profit, either close to creation cost or way above it's still the same, they mine and when they hit a block they usually sell. They need the fiat to keep operating. I dont get your point and if its relevant here
That’s ok not everybody understands this concept immediately. It is not exactly a simple concept to grasp. That’s why people like me exist, to simplify. I’m sure if you sleep on it you’ll be like “oh shit!” Lol
Aaron
Nope, no I wont. I'm pretty sure I know how mining farms operate and what they are in business for and how they go about selling their block rewards they hit. I understand perfectly well this concept doesn't make sense for multiple reasons.
What do you mean its logical? Miners dont buy and sell as large traders. The mine, and insta sell most of the large ones at least. There is no buying or selling based on creation costs. If they mine at a profit, either close to creation cost or way above it's still the same, they mine and when they hit a block they usually sell. They need the fiat to keep operating. I dont get your point and if its relevant here
That’s ok not everybody understands this concept immediately. It is not exactly a simple concept to grasp. That’s why people like me exist, to simplify. I’m sure if you sleep on it you’ll be like “oh shit!” Lol
Aaron
I've read this thread and think you dont know the mindset of mining farms. If they dont sell at a loss they cant operate on a monthly basis. The only income they earn is when they sell the bitcoin that they mine. Miners al.ost dump daily, they dont play to the exchanges and try to be traders. They are miners pure and simple.
I’m not saying the miners do this (even though they should) I’m saying these are the largest natural forces affecting these markets. This is the only analysis that that identifies the actual speculation in the market at any time.
The miners buy when the price approaches the creation cost. They sell when the price is high above the creation cost. It is logical. The analysis simplifies crypto.
Aaron
What do you mean its logical? Miners dont buy and sell as large traders. The mine, and insta sell most of the large ones at least. There is no buying or selling based on creation costs. If they mine at a profit, either close to creation cost or way above it's still the same, they mine and when they hit a block they usually sell. They need the fiat to keep operating. I dont get your point and if its relevant here
This analysis is definitely useful for crypto industry all together to pre judge when altcoins prices pump
The numbers are so bullish on ltc, it’s insane.
The upward potential of ltc right now is remarkable. The creation cost can easily grow to $150 as it was after the halving. There are $84 million of litecoin miners on standby right now. It is the smart play currently.
The numbers don’t lie,
Aaron
I've read this thread and think you dont know the mindset of mining farms. If they dont sell at a loss they cant operate on a monthly basis. The only income they earn is when they sell the bitcoin that they mine. Miners al.ost dump daily, they dont play to the exchanges and try to be traders. They are miners pure and simple.
I’m not saying the miners do this (even though they should) I’m saying these are the largest natural forces affecting these markets. This is the only analysis that that identifies the actual speculation in the market at any time.
The miners buy when the price approaches the creation cost. They sell when the price is high above the creation cost. It is logical. The analysis simplifies crypto.
Aaron
This analysis is definitely useful for crypto industry all together to pre judge when altcoins prices pump
Nothing I wrote is false. New coins are made each day, but the cost of their creation does not affect the price. Try showing a flaw in my argument rather than just dismissing it as "misinformation".
Your argument breaks down because it assumes that because supply increases are predetermined it means the costs of acquisition are predetermined. A single current gen asic costs thousands of dollars. Mining companies have dumped billions of dollars into securing land, mining equipment, and electricity to make a bitcoin.
The mega miners have spent this money in order to secure a portion of new bitcoin at the creation cost. They are willing to spend excess capital/loans/ business connections to acquire any bitcoin that approach their wholesale price. When the price is very high above creation cost they will sell all the coins they make as well as the coins they have held which will naturally decrease an inflated bitcoin price.
If they choose to buy instead, the difficulty will fall, allowing other miners to mine and not buy
If they choose to mine, the difficulty will rise, causing other miners to stop mining and buy.
In both cases, the demand does not change, so the price does not change.
If they choose to mine, the difficulty will rise, causing other miners to stop mining and buy.
In both cases, the demand does not change, so the price does not change.
This view is only applicable pre ASIC and pre large scale investment, when anyone with a cpu could mine. The miners are invested for a specific amount of time before they can easily shut down. This is billions of dollars of investment here. Not joe bob who is willing to take a 10k write off on his bitcoin mining mistake.
Miners will sell at a loss. They must sell in order to cover their costs. Also, if traders never sell at a loss, wouldn't the price still be at $20,000?
In bitcoin, the most efficient miners do not sell at a loss EVER. That is why my analysis works. For this reason: there are many instances of less efficient miners active that would begin buying well before it hits the lowest creation cost. If you look at my posted analysis bitcoin section you will see there are resistances at various less efficient machine prices which are above the creation cost. It plays off the concept that the miners with the most efficient machines are the smartest players in the game.
I hope this allays your concerns.
Aaron
I've read this thread and think you dont know the mindset of mining farms. If they dont sell at a loss they cant operate on a monthly basis. The only income they earn is when they sell the bitcoin that they mine. Miners al.ost dump daily, they dont play to the exchanges and try to be traders. They are miners pure and simple.
Only if you know how to interpret the results of these analyses correctly
That’s why I put the simple buy/sell indicator.
It operates off the percent loss to creation cost.
<20% buy
20%-30% hold
>30% sell
I will probably change “expected miner actions” to “natural market pressure” next week.
I will also change the chart to include p/l, p/l %, % to cost to add more clarity
Every week I make improvements.
My october 21 analysis:
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/3e4389721251a38558facb8f5/files/30f0bbda-4397-4173-8165-ae29be6954f2/October_21_PDF.01.pdf
Truly simplified crypto, my ultimate goal.
Aaron
https://www.amsinger.org/
Only if you know how to interpret the results of these analyses correctly
Nothing I wrote is false. New coins are made each day, but the cost of their creation does not affect the price. Try showing a flaw in my argument rather than just dismissing it as "misinformation".
Your argument breaks down because it assumes that because supply increases are predetermined it means the costs of acquisition are predetermined. A single current gen asic costs thousands of dollars. Mining companies have dumped billions of dollars into securing land, mining equipment, and electricity to make a bitcoin.
The mega miners have spent this money in order to secure a portion of new bitcoin at the creation cost. They are willing to spend excess capital/loans/ business connections to acquire any bitcoin that approach their wholesale price. When the price is very high above creation cost they will sell all the coins they make as well as the coins they have held which will naturally decrease an inflated bitcoin price.
If they choose to buy instead, the difficulty will fall, allowing other miners to mine and not buy
If they choose to mine, the difficulty will rise, causing other miners to stop mining and buy.
In both cases, the demand does not change, so the price does not change.
If they choose to mine, the difficulty will rise, causing other miners to stop mining and buy.
In both cases, the demand does not change, so the price does not change.
This view is only applicable pre ASIC and pre large scale investment, when anyone with a cpu could mine. The miners are invested for a specific amount of time before they can easily shut down. This is billions of dollars of investment here. Not joe bob who is willing to take a 10k write off on his bitcoin mining mistake.
Miners will sell at a loss. They must sell in order to cover their costs. Also, if traders never sell at a loss, wouldn't the price still be at $20,000?
In bitcoin, the most efficient miners do not sell at a loss EVER. That is why my analysis works. For this reason: there are many instances of less efficient miners active that would begin buying well before it hits the lowest creation cost. If you look at my posted analysis bitcoin section you will see there are resistances at various less efficient machine prices which are above the creation cost. It plays off the concept that the miners with the most efficient machines are the smartest players in the game.
I hope this allays your concerns.
Aaron
Your analysis is based on creation cost, but creation cost does not affect supply, so it can't affect the price.
The production of bitcoins is predetermined by the protocol. It is not affected by the cost of creation. Since the production is predetermined, then the total supply is predetermined. Therefore, it follows that the creation cost does not affect the price.
This is misinformation. New btc, Bch, eth, ltc, and dash are made each day. Your argument is false. The production of bitcoins is predetermined by the protocol. It is not affected by the cost of creation. Since the production is predetermined, then the total supply is predetermined. Therefore, it follows that the creation cost does not affect the price.
Nothing I wrote is false. New coins are made each day, but the cost of their creation does not affect the price. Try showing a flaw in my argument rather than just dismissing it as "misinformation".
when its cheaper to mine they will mine and then sell.. causing price drop
when its not so cheap to mine and inconvenient at the time to start mining they will just buy, causing a price rise
when its not so cheap to mine and inconvenient at the time to start mining they will just buy, causing a price rise
If they choose to buy instead, the difficulty will fall, allowing other miners to mine and not buy
If they choose to mine, the difficulty will rise, causing other miners to stop mining and buy.
In both cases, the demand does not change, so the price does not change.
adding to this. when mining and price are soo close that there is no profit in it they wont sell (hlping creating a support line)
they also wont sell at a loss
they also wont sell at a loss
Miners will sell at a loss. They must sell in order to cover their costs. Also, if traders never sell at a loss, wouldn't the price still be at $20,000?
It is pretty much the support for the technical analysis. Once we, the traders conduct a technical analysis, we usually backed it with a fundamental analysis that will increase the chance of our decision to become winning. In addition, technical analysis sometimes is enough to predict a market price. Especially if we are having a piece of massive news out from cryptocurrency space that is pretty sure will provide us with a decent income in trading.
Fundamental analysis shows the natural buying pressure, to identify the quick moves technical analysis is needed.
I made it to be a compliment to a professional traders system.
Aaron
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