Topic: Amazing daily analysis on cryptocurrencies from China - page 6. (Read 12472 times)

Then GoxBTC drops again, then

Gotta love this "wise man from China" and his predictions.

Confucius say... Bitcoin prediction is as trout in mountain stream: when you think you have firmest grasp on it, trout has already slipped away.

Confucius and everybody else who ever tried to predict the value of Bitcoin.

#Poster Highlights Translation#  NO.3

Find the unique point is the point for buying Altcoin

When we speculate in this democurrency market, we need to find the unique point of each democurrency, every unique point can support only one democurrency.

For example:

BTC: first democurrency, most well-known.

Doge: NO.1 hashing power of scrypt algorithm.

LTC: first coin to adopt scrypt algorithm.

IFC: first coin to have a quick issue, big money supply and short block time.

XPM: first coin to adopt a mining algorithm than can help find prime numbers.

For more useful discussions and analysis, click here:
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english
You'll find more than you expect!~

Exactly.

Anyone looking at how much influence a single undemocratic entity like Mt.Gox can have on the value and trustworthiness and usefulness of BTC and still calling it "democratic currency" is clearly deeply ignorant about what democracy really means.

#Poster Highlights Translation#  NO.2

The world will be governed by mathematicians—Comment on Primecoin


“Self-adjusting block reward: The Primecoin protocol takes approach different from Bitcoin: the number of Primecoins released per block is not fixed but is always equal to 999 divided by the square of the difficulty”—from Wikipedia

What a stunning and unique design! Sunny King is more “wicked” than Satoshi! For Primecoin, the more the hashing power is, the less coins miners can get!

So there is a positive recycling here: the more the hashing power is, the less coins miners can get; the less coins mined, the higher the price is; the higher the price, the more the hashing power is…

Once mathematicians become “evil”, they are just invincible under heaven!

Alfred Bernhard Nobel considered mathematics useless in his time.

Later, people think mathematics is somewhat useful, but as for number theory, not productive.

With the advent of computer, number theory began to attract attention.

With the advent of internet, experts of number theory began to enjoy a great advantage.

With the advent of democurrency, experts of number theory can just make money! No payslips! No boss! They just “make” money!! They just invent cryptocurrencies and use them! Ho, that’s so awesome, isn’t it?!!

This world has been utterly changed! Much more than what we can imagine.

In the past, a scholar can never win an argument with a soldier (a Chinese saying). Now, a mathematician is just a superman, other people are just his followers begging for food.

We fear neither God nor Satan, but we are afraid of bandits with an IQ above 160!

The world is going crazier than we can imagine!…

Today's analysis(February 23,14:51, Beijing time)
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/366-20140223-14-51-trend-analysis-of-democurrency
After two weeks of suffering, we finally see glimmers of hope!
P.S. IFC went up by more than 20%, reaching 0.00057 RMB!

#Poster highlights translation#  NO.1

What a perfect cryptocurrency mechanism should be like in my mind?
The answer is: Democratic centralism cryptocurrency (DCC)
What is DCC? And how does it work? Well, let me explain in detail.

A DCC should possess the following features:
1.It adopts blockchain mechanism (This is the most important).
2.The genesis block generates all coins all at once and the coins go to one account.
3.There is a minimum trading fee required.

Genesis block holder is naturally the issuer. Due to the democratic feature of cryptocurrency, He is supposed to do the following things if he wants his coins to appreciate:

First, he will give out his coins for free to make people know about it and persuade them to accept this currency.

Second, in order to guarantee the hashing power, he will trade with himself in order to provide high fees to miners.

Third, by using his other personal property (like BTC) as security, he offers an exchange rate of the currency and works as an exchange center for others.

Fourth, he will spare no efforts to develop applications of this currency in order to further promote usage of the coin.　　

Many people dislike the fact that too many “IPO coins” are owned by the issuer. In fact, every coin, including Bitcoin, has the problem of “issuer hoarding”. They only differ in the proportion of hoarding. As long as the price reaches their expectation, they will sell, once sold, this problem is resolved.

In addition, every coin has a market maker, even BTC is no exception. Market makers are just big holders, they don’t promote, neither do they develop applications; they just drink the blood of retail investors. They are absolutely more wicked than the original issuer.

Coming back to the point, we need to rely on the core of democurrency---blockchain mechanism---a superb decentralized, anti-cheating monetary and financial system. Once equipped with this system, together with powerful applications, this currency is bound to achieve huge success.

You may argue: nobody in this world is able to promote such a coin, but imagine, just imagine, what if the issuer is a GOVERNMENT? ...This idea might blow your mind, but it may well come true sooner than you expect.

All rights reserved, anyone who adopts this idea is required to donate 100BTC.

My address：

BTC: 19bbXVUgCP5EfAoGbrBKePMRf3TuxCZ2fs  

For more useful discussions and analysis, click here:

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english

You'll find more than you expect!~

Today's analysis(February 22,16:30, Beijing time)
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/358-20140222-16-30-trend-analysis-of-democurrency
No more panic, ready to rebound.

Good question, why does he favor IFC so much? I collected the author's statements in the poster and translated them into English, the full analysis on IFC is here:
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/357-20140222-17-15-special-analysis-on-ifc
IFC:

Max money supply: 90,600,000,000

Price: 0.00048 RMB right now (www.bter.com)

Block time: 30 seconds

As you can see, IFC has a gigantic issue size, an extremely low price and can be confirmed quickly.

IFC enjoys good popularity in China. There are a lot of IFC websites, forums, and even TV advertisements.

Most important, its mining is coming to an end, only few coins are mined out everyday. This way, the price of IFC will not be pressed by the selling of newly-mined coins, it can rise with much more ease.

For BTC, newly-mined coins everyday is about 1.6 million dollars, Litecoin 400,000 dollars, Doge 400,000 dollars. For a coin without the selling of newly-mined coins, the price is difficult to fall. On the flip side, even a small amount of buying can pull up the price. As a result, the market maker will be able to pull up the price easily and make much profit.

The author detected the existence of a market maker (on a big Chinese trading platform www.bter.com) in December last year, and successfully predicted his movement of pulling the price from 0.00051 to 0.0097 within 10 hours. Then the market maker somewhat stopped pulling (he is supposed to pull higher and attract new buyers), and began to act against the author, he turned around to lower the price in order to absorb more coins, I guess the reason is that the market maker suddenly saw the poster.

The author possesses 1.5 billon coins, together with his readers’ buying, there are about 10 billion coins. This is the main reason why the market maker acted against him, he wants to grab the coins out of his hands.

From January 27 to today, the price of IFC has been going down continuously for 25 days. It doesn\'t fall with BTC, neither does it rise with Doge, it behaved abnormally and began to dive recently(see the chart below)，now the price is lower than the market maker’s position-building cost. It is a golden opportunity to buy in!



Despite the author’s favor on IFC, he now seems to be sick and tired of playing mind games with the market maker.

IFC also has its drawbacks, worry about its hashing power, risk of 51% attack, etc.. The author suggested 10% allocation of your money on this coin. You may lose, of course. Anyway, what we are playing is probability.

 

He doesn't climb out on much of a limb with that one.
I wonder why he like IFC so much? a look at it's chart since inception is pretty unimpressive.

He mentioned Bitstamp a few days ago. In his opinion, Bitstamp is much more reliable than MT for the time being, at least it's not cheating. As for the price, it's hard to say right now.

What does he think about Bitstamp? Will it go under 500?

P.P.S. (February 21)

As I mentioned above, the author originally started his analysis from tianya.cn, the most popular forum in China. His poster in the forum soon attracted massive attention and was clicked 572,910 times(by the time I wrote) within less than 4 months. This is the link:
http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-develop-1450475-1.shtml

Due to his accurate predictions, a lot of bitcoin players became his fans and readers (including some market makers, I guess). Since a large number of bitcoin players are involved in this poster, I think its content may serve as a useful reference for foreign friends to know about what Chinese bitcoin players are thinking and doing. So I intend to translate the highlights of the poster bit by bit in the following days and put them in this poster, trying to serve as a bridge between China and English speaking world.

I welcome all of your comments and suggestions.

P.S. (February 21)
The author has emphasized for many times on the brief-time validity of his buying suggestions, so if foreign friends read the daily analysis late and find the coin recommended has risen sharply, it is strongly advised that you don’t buy high. Just wait for the next chance.

I like short analysis, good work. Sounds legit.

It's not a currency by the people, because you can't issue it. Bitcoin is governed by math, that is far from 'by people'. History was of bad records of authorities governing currnecy, and bitcoin removed the authority, but it did not give power back to the people - the true 'by the people' means you can issue I-O-U as much as you like, and the value of these I-O-U in compare to math-governed hard currency (bitcoin), is based on how much the community trusts you. e.g. MtGox's I-O-U is currenly valued 40% of real coins. A currency system that designed I-O-U into it is a currency can be called a currency 'by the people'. Bitcoin is a foundation for such a system, providing a digital rigid value to back against, but itself is not a currency 'by the people'.

"Democratic currency" is a wrong name for bitcoin, even 'anti-authority currency' or "discipline currency" or "democratic currency's foundation" are better. There is quite a distance to cover from discipline to democracy. The author may think the alternative crypto-currencies floating around in China menas "you can issue your currency" - it does not, none of the alternative hot new brands in China allows you to issue I-O-U. Duplications of a system is not extending the system, and they are better called anarchy instead of democracy.

It is commonly agreed among economists that a rigid discipline currency as the only currency is a bad idea - think about the 30s' recession - don't worry, this will never happen: bitcoin is either complementary to fiats (now), or fiats will be complementary to bitcoins, or a new crypto-currency representing I-O-U issued by the people will be complementary to bitcoin. A pure bitcoin-only world is disasterful, but it is so easy to correct that it is impossible to really happen - by issuing complementary currencies. We are closer to the ideal model but we are not there yet.

I think the word "Democratic currency" revealed more about Chinese people (disclose: I am) than about the currency. Under a strong government we are so thirst of democracy that we hurry to label any anti-authority ideas with it. It is also dangerous, because we (Chinese people) long for something (democracy) that we don't have much experience and knowledge about - not knowing true water we risk drinking sea water to quench thirst - and this will be a major issue after the down-fall of the current China communist party.

"Democurrency" seems to be a better word.
The author coined this word yesterday, it sounds cool and looks like an authentic English word, haha
I believe this word will be collected by dictionaries some day.

Today's analysis(16:13 Beijing time,21,Feb)
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/351-20140221-16-13-trend-analysis-of-democurrency
Wait for the rise of IFC and retreat!

"Democratic currency"...

Love it! 

from another ordinary Bitcoin player ... thanks for that. Link in my bookmark now