AMHash1: Cost-Effective Mining Contract - page 66.

galdur

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Quote from: skuser on February 13, 2015, 02:37:13 AM

It would be fine if the havelock website was at least sometimes up, because is almost always error 522 - timed out recently

It´s really annoying and had me rattled what with these bitcoin "exhanges" disappearing in this totally scam-ridden bitcoin marketplace. But Mabsark told me to "get used to it" as Havelock is concerned which damped my unease. And it´s up most of the time I guess. Still, uncertainty overhang that doesn´t go away is absolute poison in any market.

lunarboy

hero member

Activity: 544

Merit: 500

Quote from: astronomino on February 12, 2015, 10:28:33 PM

Quote from: RoadStress on February 12, 2015, 01:56:14 PM

Quote from: Jayjay04 on February 12, 2015, 01:55:17 PM

Big dumping happening right now...
Can't believe they haven't made a clearer announcement....

Is there a reason for anyone to buy or hold these shares?

Depending on how this works, there's plenty of reason to buy after people are done dumping.
At the very least, we should expect price to go up once dividends start up again - if you buy at bottom price, you win.
But there might be an even more compelling reason: Lets assume that on March 1st (or whenever) there will be a huge dividend payout for the previous 20 or so days: roughly 0.0001 BTC per 1 unit which currently costs under 0.0008 BTC to buy. That one dividend alone is worth 12.5%. And I'll assume it will be paid in full to whomever owns the shares on March 1st (not split over who owned them in previous days). So it becomes really profitable to buy on that day before dividends. Since many people will expect the huge payout we might see a big buy order queue and a little price bubble that will burst as soon as dividends are paid. Of course it's all speculation, but if it happens like this there's plenty of great opportunities - all of which involve buying/holding in this break period.

That is a big gamble at this point. Who knows if they will reto pay any lost dividends?

skuser

sr. member

Activity: 291

Merit: 250

It would be fine if the havelock website was at least sometimes up, because is almost always error 522 - timed out recently

galdur

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Quote from: astronomino on February 12, 2015, 10:28:33 PM

Quote from: RoadStress on February 12, 2015, 01:56:14 PM

Quote from: Jayjay04 on February 12, 2015, 01:55:17 PM

Big dumping happening right now...
Can't believe they haven't made a clearer announcement....

Is there a reason for anyone to buy or hold these shares?

Depending on how this works, there's plenty of reason to buy after people are done dumping.
At the very least, we should expect price to go up once dividends start up again - if you buy at bottom price, you win.
But there might be an even more compelling reason: Lets assume that on March 1st (or whenever) there will be a huge dividend payout for the previous 20 or so days: roughly 0.0001 BTC per 1 unit which currently costs under 0.0008 BTC to buy. That one dividend alone is worth 12.5%. And I'll assume it will be paid in full to whomever owns the shares on March 1st (not split over who owned them in previous days). So it becomes really profitable to buy on that day before dividends. Since many people will expect the huge payout we might see a big buy order queue and a little price bubble that will burst as soon as dividends are paid. Of course it's all speculation, but if it happens like this there's plenty of great opportunities - all of which involve buying/holding in this break period.

Yeah, I´ve been pondering more or less along the same lines. Thanks and good luck, g

astronomino

newbie

Activity: 15

Merit: 0

Quote from: RoadStress on February 12, 2015, 01:56:14 PM

Quote from: Jayjay04 on February 12, 2015, 01:55:17 PM

Big dumping happening right now...
Can't believe they haven't made a clearer announcement....

Is there a reason for anyone to buy or hold these shares?

Depending on how this works, there's plenty of reason to buy after people are done dumping.
At the very least, we should expect price to go up once dividends start up again - if you buy at bottom price, you win.
But there might be an even more compelling reason: Lets assume that on March 1st (or whenever) there will be a huge dividend payout for the previous 20 or so days: roughly 0.0001 BTC per 1 unit which currently costs under 0.0008 BTC to buy. That one dividend alone is worth 12.5%. And I'll assume it will be paid in full to whomever owns the shares on March 1st (not split over who owned them in previous days). So it becomes really profitable to buy on that day before dividends. Since many people will expect the huge payout we might see a big buy order queue and a little price bubble that will burst as soon as dividends are paid. Of course it's all speculation, but if it happens like this there's plenty of great opportunities - all of which involve buying/holding in this break period.

ajw7989

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1000

I just finished dumping my shares. 4000 at 0.084ish and the 2500 at 0.076ish. Still managed to make a profit overall though. This is gona get nasty. Its only the beginning of no dividends.

thevictimofuktyranny

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1004

Quote from: Chris_Sabian on February 12, 2015, 02:33:28 PM

Is there anywhere to see past trades / price / volume? Havelock on lists the last ~20 trades.

There is a chart of past price movements, its is not very detailed though:

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AMHASH1

Roll Eyes

Chris_Sabian

legendary

Activity: 896

Merit: 1001

Is there anywhere to see past trades / price / volume? Havelock on lists the last ~20 trades.

thevictimofuktyranny

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1004

Quote from: galdur on February 12, 2015, 02:07:23 PM

Quote from: newguy05 on February 12, 2015, 02:00:43 PM

I just dumped my entire holding ~14k shares, risk/reward is too skewed to justify holding those shares.

1) Difficulty continues to raise
2) No clarity on if the suspended dividend due to chinese new year will be repaid afterwards.
3) No panic yet as price is still pretty good around 0.0008 to sell into. Dont want to wait until everyone starts panicing about lack of dividend 10 days later.

The way i see it, if everything resumes 15 days later and all dividend gets repaid etc..i will just buy back in. It's not like the share prices will sky rocket given the difficulty we are at. And there is little chance of drastic difficulty drop as everything is frozen due to the chinese new year, if anything it will go up after the new year is over.

Everything can hardly be frozen over there if the hash rate is making a new all time high as will the next difficulty it seems ?

Someones cleared all those dumped shares already, back up to ฿0.00082994. Volume starts at much higher price point:

1000/1000 ฿0.00083998

Tongue

galdur

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Quote from: newguy05 on February 12, 2015, 02:00:43 PM

I just dumped my entire holding ~14k shares, risk/reward is too skewed to justify holding those shares.

1) Difficulty continues to raise
2) No clarity on if the suspended dividend due to chinese new year will be repaid afterwards.
3) No panic yet as price is still pretty good around 0.0008 to sell into. Dont want to wait until everyone starts panicing about lack of dividend 10 days later.

The way i see it, if everything resumes 15 days later and all dividend gets repaid etc..i will just buy back in. It's not like the share prices will sky rocket given the difficulty we are at. And there is little chance of drastic difficulty drop as everything is frozen due to the chinese new year, if anything it will go up after the new year is over.

Everything can hardly be frozen over there if the hash rate is making a new all time high as will the next difficulty it seems ?

funkymunky

sr. member

Activity: 283

Merit: 250

I literally bought seconds before you dumped Cry

I'm rubbish at Bitcoin.....

newguy05

hero member

Activity: 1316

Merit: 503

Someone is sitting in the shade today...

Quote from: Jayjay04 on February 12, 2015, 01:55:17 PM

Big dumping happening right now...
Can't believe they haven't made a clearer announcement....

that was me, i was writing my post as you posted this

nothing to worry about, carry on Roll Eyes

newguy05

hero member

Activity: 1316

Merit: 503

Someone is sitting in the shade today...

I just dumped my entire holding ~14k shares, risk/reward is too skewed to justify holding those shares.

1) Difficulty continues to raise
2) No clarity on if the suspended dividend due to chinese new year will be repaid afterwards.
3) No panic yet as price is still pretty good around 0.0008 to sell into. Dont want to wait until everyone starts panicing about lack of dividend 10 days later.

The way i see it, if everything resumes 15 days later and all dividend gets repaid etc..i will just buy back in. It's not like the share prices will sky rocket given the difficulty we are at. And there is little chance of drastic difficulty drop as everything is frozen due to the chinese new year, if anything it will go up after the new year is over.

galdur

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

It´s just someone who needed to get rid of a few thousand units. I don´t think it´s anything major.

RoadStress

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1007

Quote from: Jayjay04 on February 12, 2015, 01:55:17 PM

Big dumping happening right now...
Can't believe they haven't made a clearer announcement....

Is there a reason for anyone to buy or hold these shares?

Jayjay04

legendary

Activity: 1364

Merit: 1000

Big dumping happening right now...
Can't believe they haven't made a clearer announcement....

galdur

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Quote from: thevictimofuktyranny on February 12, 2015, 11:31:12 AM

Quote from: galdur on February 12, 2015, 10:54:06 AM

Thanks for that.

I don´t doubt that the difficulty bubble is leveling off, for the time being at least. But still +7-8% per 14 days is substantial. Your yield has to be higher of course,otherwise you´re at best running in place. My yield dropping below 1%/day is a minor crisis to me. But fortunately that´s rare, the average is around 1.5% best days 2% or so. When you work with compound interest and achieve substantial daily yields, over time the results can be quite spectacular.

Yes galdur

If you are using the compound interest strategy, it will be very sensitive to increases in difficulty, it going to be stressful and it's feel like a full time job Wink

I admire your work ethic and resilience though Grin

Nah, it´s not really sensitive to difficulty except that when difficulty is rising I get more alert and work more on moving funds around. And more active in trading.

My strategy is actually defensive although it yields aggressive results. It is simply a necessary counter to the difficulty bubble and the constantly tanking BTC price. I could have simply bought BTC and held but I hate falling holdings. And I just love this mining business and all its nuances and possibilities.

thevictimofuktyranny

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1004

Quote from: galdur on February 12, 2015, 10:54:06 AM

Thanks for that.

I don´t doubt that the difficulty bubble is leveling off, for the time being at least. But still +7-8% per 14 days is substantial. Your yield has to be higher of course,otherwise you´re at best running in place. My yield dropping below 1%/day is a minor crisis to me. But fortunately that´s rare, the average is around 1.5% best days 2% or so. When you work with compound interest and achieve substantial daily yields, over time the results can be quite spectacular.

Yes galdur

If you are using the compound interest strategy, it will be very sensitive to increases in difficulty, it going to be stressful and it's feel like a full time job Wink

I admire your work ethic and resilience though Grin

galdur

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Thanks for that.

I don´t doubt that the difficulty bubble is leveling off, for the time being at least. But still +7-8% per 14 days is substantial. Your yield has to be higher of course,otherwise you´re at best running in place. My yield dropping below 1%/day is a minor crisis to me. But fortunately that´s rare, the average is around 1.5% best days 2% or so. When you work with compound interest and achieve substantial daily yields, over time the results can be quite spectacular.

thevictimofuktyranny

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1004

Quote from: galdur on February 11, 2015, 11:58:05 AM

Well, I´m of course as before totally focused on the yield and with difficulty increasing fast, doing all I can to make the yield surpass the increase. This I do by constant reinvestments between vehicles and reinvestment straight into my core instrument (about half of the whole). So, I rely a lot on compound interest. And I´m always on the lookout for trading opportunities. You really have to be on your toes in this crazy and fast moving marketplace.

I've found you a lovely difficulty chart at Coindesk galdur, which illustrates the slowing in BTC difficulty increases and may help you in your future investments Wink

http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-time/

20 May 2014: 6.9 billion start

27 September 2014: 34.6 billion finish

Net increase over 4.3 months 5x or 500% higher Shocked

28 September 2014: 34.6 billion start

11 February 2015: 44.45 billion finish --Today---

Net increase 4.3 months 28.46% Roll Eyes

The last measurement over the last 4.3 months looks much better for my Havelock AMhash1 investment, I did it for those who prefer rigid historical analysis versus future modelling of economic conditions analysis Roll Eyes

PS: xhomerx10 and explorer have been added to my ignore list Grin

Topic: AMHash1: Cost-Effective Mining Contract - page 66. (Read 304327 times)