Amount of BTC lost over time? | Bitcointalksearch.org

bluebit25

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Okay, let's throw that data away and focus on the present. Will it have a negative impact on bitcoin? The only thing I can feel about the bitcoins that many people have lost is a pity for them, and the irony is that stories about cases of irreversible bitcoin oblivion still exist and it's painful for them to see more of the value of bitcoin increasing over time.

If you follow the logic that the OP mentioned, you know that by the year 10000, yep we will lose all bitcoins, all people, all things,... there are tons of things that people like to attach. Focus on inferences but appreciate what exists first.

Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 07:43:16 AM

2013: 3.4M BTC estimated to be lost
2014: 4.1M BTC estimated to be lost
2015: 4.3M... etc.

suzanne5223

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Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I have a theory that even though we talk about halving the issuance rate every 4 years, the BTC price is just as much influenced by the amount of coins lost day by day.

No, what influences the price of BTC is the 4-year cycle aka block halving, positive news, mining difficult level, and level of greed in the market. The lost BTC only increases the total number of BTC in circulation.
The lost BTC somewhere impacts the price but not in the way you proclaim it.

Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I've read analysts estimating even around 6M bitcoins are likely to be lost forever. Those are horrendous numbers. But surprisingly in contrast, I've never seen anyone put the average of lost BTC estimations over time on a chart.

If there's no evidence backing the claim of lost BTC to be 6 million, I will advise you not to believe in the information because 97% of all the so-called analysts of this day create hype content just for their selfish benefit.

Wiwo

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Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I have a theory that even though we talk about halving the issuance rate every 4 years, the BTC price is just as much influenced by the amount of coins lost day by day. I've read analysts estimating even around 6M bitcoins are likely to be lost forever. Those are horrendous numbers. But surprisingly in contrast, I've never seen anyone put the average of lost BTC estimations over time on a chart. The closest we can get are the "supply last active N years ago" type of charts, but they lack context.

I would be highly interested on historical data on the aggregated amount of coins claimed to be lost over time. If you know a reliable source, please share!

Just like in the thread https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63449066
You can see that someone just sent 26 bitcoins to a known dead address that has been picked by the Bitcoin community to have been one of the biggest Bitcoin burn addresses, so we have a few other addresses that contained bitcoins and are known to be lost forever, and with such information, even though we don't have any accurate statistical data and records regarding that, we can just speculate and assume the amount in total since we have no way to prove or verify such information.

Sometimes, we can't say because an address has been inactive for 5-6 years or more doesn't make the address a dead address since anyone with the private keys to that address to reactivate it at any time.

highalch

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Quote from: YOSHIE on January 06, 2024, 09:31:45 AM

Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I would be highly interested on historical data of the aggregated amount of coins claimed to be lost over time. If you know a reliable source, please share!

I'm sure Bitcoin as time goes by, losses continue to increase, but I don't know how much certainty and total Bitcoin is lost as time goes by.

But I can only show 7 topics that talk about Bitcoin losses of all time that I have seen on this forum.

Maybe you review below.

1. Topic: Lost large number of bitcoins.
2. Topic: Lost bitcoins.
3. Topic: Lost large number of bitcoins ----> 10 year anniversary.
4. Topic: How many Bitcoins are lost forever?
5. Topic: 8,000 bitcoin Lost because of the blue death screen.
6. Topic: How many Bitcoins have been provably lost? At least ..
7. Topic: Let's add up the KNOWN lost bitcoins.

Who knows, the seven topics above could be important information for you.

I've already gone through some of these on bitcointalk as well, and it's so much clutter to make sense of all the data here. I was hoping someone structured the data already in some way, shape or form.

thecodebear

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Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I have a theory that even though we talk about halving the issuance rate every 4 years, the BTC price is just as much influenced by the amount of coins lost day by day. I've read analysts estimating even around 6M bitcoins are likely to be lost forever. Those are horrendous numbers. But surprisingly in contrast, I've never seen anyone put the average of lost BTC estimations over time on a chart. The closest we can get are the "supply last active N years ago" type of charts, but they lack context.

I would be highly interested on historical data of the aggregated amount of coins claimed to be lost over time. If you know a reliable source, please share!

Not likely. Bitcoin's were readily lost in its early days when it was worth nothing or barely anything because it was just an experiment used by a few thousand people and people didn't take it seriously enough to store their keys safely. These days losing Bitcoin is very rare, and certainly has no effect on the market when hundreds of thousands of bitcoin are traded every day.

I've never seen the 6m estimate, but yeah that is horrendous. It is likely 2 million lost bitcoin, maybe at very most 2.5 million. Might even be less than 2 million, even with 1 million lost from Satoshi. People get the absurd lost estimates like 4m or 6m because they like to pretend any bitcoin that hasn't moved for a certain amount of years is lost. So if they keep that length of time the same, say 10 years, naturally over time that will come to include more and more bitcoin, despite them not being lost but simply held long term.

Rikafip

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Quote from: God bless u on January 06, 2024, 09:42:58 AM

Damn. 2 million bitcoins lost or discovered to be lost in just one year is a very very huge number. it is kind of scary too considering total supply of Bitcoin which is only 21 millions.
that is like a whooping 30% of total Bitcoin supply lost forever.

We can't be absolutely sure that all those bitcoins are lost forever. Who knows, maybe Satoshi decides to comes back one day (highly unlikely, but you never know) or someome gets in the possesion of private keys of his addresses and moves around those bitcoins.

By the way, to that account you should also add 26 BTC that someone sent yesterday to genesis block address.

Kelward

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on January 06, 2024, 06:07:25 AM

Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I've never seen anyone put the average of lost BTC estimations over time on a chart. The closest we can get are the "supply last active N years ago" type of charts, but they lack context.

I would be highly interested on historical data of the aggregated amount of coins claimed to be lost over time. If you know a reliable source, please share!

If you see it, it will not be accurate and it would be full of misinformation. This is because you can not know the total amount of lost bitcoin. There are some coins that have not been moved since long time ago but which are not lost, but while some are lost. Know one can know the total amount of lost bitcoin because you can not know if the owner of inactive coins still has the private key or not.

I don't think that there's any means to accurately determine the actual amount of Bitcoin that has been lost over time, this is because Bitcoin is decentralized and there's no central authority where data can be compiled, so we wouldn't know the ones that are lost or not been touched for years, no customer service to report lost wallet addresses. All we can get is estimates which can not be accurate.

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Quote from: boyptc on January 06, 2024, 05:56:26 AM

That's also the amount that the articles that I've seen discussing about the entirety of lost Bitcoins forever. Like it's 4 million on 2022 and it had increased to 6 million on 2023.

And for this year, I guess that there will be more of it but I'm also interested to see actual data and charts about it. I've tried to searched but found none.

Damn. 2 million bitcoins lost or discovered to be lost in just one year is a very very huge number. it is kind of scary too considering total supply of Bitcoin which is only 21 millions.
that is like a whooping 30% of total Bitcoin supply lost forever. i wish there was a way to bring those coins back to circulation.
because right now we are not noticing but long-term effect of those lost coins in Bitcoin's price would be really big.

Quote from: hugeblack on January 06, 2024, 06:10:25 AM

Only bitcoin that were sent to proving of burn addresses, or some addresses, or lost due to some technical problems or due to some blocks, are the only ones are lost, and the number is less than 50k Bitcoins. I have coins that I have not moved since 2017, and many have not moved their coins since 2011, so how can you guarantee that they are lost?

In general, this topic has been discussed thousands of times. Use the search feature.

Indeed, the exact amount of lost bitcoin is not confirmed. but according to research the estimated amount is 6Million. even if 6 million is not accurate. i don't think 50K is accurate either. that sounds too low to me.

blckhawk

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Quote from: boyptc on January 06, 2024, 05:56:26 AM

That's also the amount that the articles that I've seen discussing about the entirety of lost Bitcoins forever. Like it's 4 million on 2022 and it had increased to 6 million on 2023.

And for this year, I guess that there will be more of it but I'm also interested to see actual data and charts about it. I've tried to searched but found none.

That's a lot of bitcoin if you ask me but I'm not complaining if that's the amount but still I can't believe that there's that many speculated amount that's gone forever. Does that number include the bitcoins that haven't moved in a decade or 5 years? Also, I'm curious as to how they make this estimates because it seems to me that the most obvious way which is checking the addresses that have these bitcoins or counting the current circulation of bitcoin in different exchanges are a little bit too on the nose for me. I want to see a chart for that too but I don't want the complex kind of chart though, something that can be understood by reading a few lines or just looking at the chart and not having a hard time understanding it.

alastantiger

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on January 06, 2024, 06:07:25 AM

If you see it, it will not be accurate and it would be full of misinformation. This is because you can not know the total amount of lost bitcoin. There are some coins that have not been moved since long time ago but which are not lost, but while some are lost. Know one can know the total amount of lost bitcoin because you can not know if the owner of inactive coins still has the private key or not.

True just as this CAIA Manager Timothy Peterson claims that 1,500 bitcoins are lost each day. This I agree with you is inaccurate. The best any expert can do is give an estimate. Once any actual figure.is attached to it, it becomes a misinformation. It is too difficult to compute the figures.

https://news.bitcoin.com/analyst-1500-bitcoins-lost-every-day-less-than-14-million-coins-will-ever-circulate/

YOSHIE

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Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I would be highly interested on historical data of the aggregated amount of coins claimed to be lost over time. If you know a reliable source, please share!

I'm sure Bitcoin as time goes by, losses continue to increase, but I don't know how much certainty and total Bitcoin is lost as time goes by.

But I can only show 7 topics that talk about Bitcoin losses of all time that I have seen on this forum.

Maybe you review below.

1. Topic: Lost large number of bitcoins.
2. Topic: Lost bitcoins.
3. Topic: Lost large number of bitcoins ----> 10 year anniversary.
4. Topic: How many Bitcoins are lost forever?
5. Topic: 8,000 bitcoin Lost because of the blue death screen.
6. Topic: How many Bitcoins have been provably lost? At least ..
7. Topic: Let's add up the KNOWN lost bitcoins.

Who knows, the seven topics above could be important information for you.

MusaMohamed

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Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I've read analysts estimating even around 6M bitcoins are likely to be lost forever. Those are horrendous numbers. But surprisingly in contrast, I've never seen anyone put the average of lost BTC estimations over time on a chart. The closest we can get are the "supply last active N years ago" type of charts, but they lack context.

I would be highly interested on historical data of the aggregated amount of coins claimed to be lost over time. If you know a reliable source, please share!

No reliable source because nobody knows about the exact number of lost bitcoins.

How many bitcoins have been lost?
Lost bitcoins: 3.7 million bitcoins are probably gone forever

You can use this HODL waves chart and make estimation like them.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/hodl-waves/

Don't worry if you did not lose your bitcoin forever.

Lost bitcoins from other people is like a donation for you.

Quote from: satoshi on June 21, 2010, 12:48:26 PM

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.

EL MOHA

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Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 07:43:16 AM

Maybe I'll rephrase the question here

Having a current predicton with the most accuracy is not the point here.
Also what is lost and what is not is yet another discussion.

I'm looking for historical data like this:

2013: 3.4M BTC estimated to be lost
2014: 4.1M BTC estimated to be lost
2015: 4.3M... etc.

This data just like everyone has said above will be hard to get even an estimate. The coins that one can confidently say are lost are the ones sent to a burner address and the reward for genesis block. Even those address are a thing to get hold on, because they are different and plenty of those addresses currently. A thread here was once created for burner addresses and it is not active again. So this seriously a huge task to combine those addresses.

One thing I am certain of is the number lost bitcoins yearly will certainly be reducing as move on because back in the early days when bitcoin wasn’t that expensive was the reason why lost bitcoin was common. Right now people take their bitcoin security seriously and one can hardly lose or burn his bitcoin this days except if they got hack which is not lost or forgotten private key which can still be recovered of the private key is later been found

Apocollapse

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How to define lost BTC in the first place? if you say inactive address that never make any transaction at least 5 years, it's incorrect because the holder might still have the seed phrase, but choose to remain silent because he want to cash out when Bitcoin hit $1M for the example.

This is the list of address with a balance, good luck to guess how many addresses that the holders lost the seed phrase.

Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 07:43:16 AM

I'm looking for historical data like this:

2013: 1M BTC estimated to be lost.
2014: 2M BTC estimated to be lost.
2015: 3M BTC estimated to be lost.
2016: 4M BTC estimated to be lost.
2017: 5M BTC estimated to be lost.
2018: 6M BTC estimated to be lost.
2019: 7M BTC estimated to be lost.
2020: 8M BTC estimated to be lost.
2021: 9M BTC estimated to be lost.
2022: 10M BTC estimated to be lost.
2023: 11M BTC estimated to be lost.

Source: Apocollapse's shit.

btc78

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It is extremely hard to identify the total number of bitcoin lost it is not always gonna be accurate most people define ‘lost’ as coins that have not been moved but how can we know if a coin is just being held by an investor for long-term or the investor already no longer has access to that coin?

Anyway coins that are not in circulation anymore definitely affects the price of bitcoin less supply and more demand that kind of concept so even intentionally people really do take bitcoin and send them to addresses that are inactive so that they can manipulate the market

Zanab247

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Quote from: highalch

Maybe I'll rephrase the question here

Having a current predicton with the most accuracy is not the point here.
Also what is lost and what is not is yet another discussion.

I'm looking for historical data like this:

2013: 3.4M BTC estimated to be lost
2014: 4.1M BTC estimated to be lost
2015: 4.3M... etc.

Are you sure that this results you got from social media is the right amount of BTC lost in those years, well am not here to argue with you because, if I assume the amount of BTC lost in 2013 , I guess it will be more than 3.4m BTC if the right calculation is done because a lot of things happen in that period. Since I really witness last year lost but not really sure the exact amount of BTC was lost in that bear run but I know that 6.3m BTC lost which is among some of the things that affected the gas fee of BTC to increase higher.

I know that there will not be too much lost in this season, because they will not allow those things that made them to experience those lost to occur again than to make it in a way they will increase their gain and to make hodlers to feel the same way too in this 2024.

theapprentice

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Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I have a theory that even though we talk about halving the issuance rate every 4 years, the BTC price is just as much influenced by the amount of coins lost day by day. I've read analysts estimating even around 6M bitcoins are likely to be lost forever. Those are horrendous numbers. But surprisingly in contrast, I've never seen anyone put the average of lost BTC estimations over time on a chart. The closest we can get are the "supply last active N years ago" type of charts, but they lack context.

I would be highly interested on historical data of the aggregated amount of coins claimed to be lost over time. If you know a reliable source, please share!

In my opinion, almost 5% of all BTC are "Lost" or at least inaccessible. Has been 15 years since first block so, to many things happend trough this time. Just my humble opinion.

highalch

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Maybe I'll rephrase the question here

Having a current predicton with the most accuracy is not the point here.
Also what is lost and what is not is yet another discussion.

I'm looking for historical data like this:

2013: 3.4M BTC estimated to be lost
2014: 4.1M BTC estimated to be lost
2015: 4.3M... etc.

Hatchy

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Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I've read analysts estimating even around 6M bitcoins are likely to be lost forever. Those are horrendous numbers.

Those coins might not be permanently lost, buddy. Some addresses might have unused coins not because the owners lost access, but due to reasons like passing away or being unable to use the internet. Many investors choose to keep some coins untouched for privacy reasons.
the price of Bitcoin is influenced by these lost coins. The more coins are lost, the higher Bitcoin's price tends to be in the market. In the case of Bitcoin, its value goes up due to its limited supply.

some analyses are just estimates, and given the rounded figures, we can't be certain those coins are truly lost forever. As @hugeBlack mentioned, Bitcoins sent to a burn address are more likely to be lost permanently.

You should read this article on lost coins
https://originstamp.com/blog/how-many-bitcoins-have-been-lost/

hugeblack

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Only bitcoin that were sent to proving of burn addresses, or some addresses, or lost due to some technical problems or due to some blocks, are the only ones are lost, and the number is less than 50k Bitcoins. I have coins that I have not moved since 2017, and many have not moved their coins since 2011, so how can you guarantee that they are lost?

In general, this topic has been discussed thousands of times. Use the search feature.

Charles-Tim

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Quote from: highalch on January 06, 2024, 05:24:51 AM

I've never seen anyone put the average of lost BTC estimations over time on a chart. The closest we can get are the "supply last active N years ago" type of charts, but they lack context.

I would be highly interested on historical data of the aggregated amount of coins claimed to be lost over time. If you know a reliable source, please share!

If you see it, it will not be accurate and it would be full of misinformation. This is because you can not know the total amount of lost bitcoin. There are some coins that have not been moved since long time ago but which are not lost, but while some are lost. Know one can know the total amount of lost bitcoin because you can not know if the owner of inactive coins still has the private key or not.

boyptc

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That's also the amount that the articles that I've seen discussing about the entirety of lost Bitcoins forever. Like it's 4 million on 2022 and it had increased to 6 million on 2023.

And for this year, I guess that there will be more of it but I'm also interested to see actual data and charts about it. I've tried to searched but found none.

highalch

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I have a theory that even though we talk about halving the issuance rate every 4 years, the BTC price is just as much influenced by the amount of coins lost day by day. I've read analysts estimating even around 6M bitcoins are likely to be lost forever. Those are horrendous numbers. But surprisingly in contrast, I've never seen anyone put the average of lost BTC estimations over time on a chart. The closest we can get are the "supply last active N years ago" type of charts, but they lack context.

I would be highly interested on historical data of the aggregated amount of coins claimed to be lost over time. If you know a reliable source, please share!

Topic: Amount of BTC lost over time? (Read 203 times)