I'm thinking about getting into this coin now that it's hit bottom. I'm curious what others think of this one? I see some posts about it being dead but then I see a new roadmap posted. What do you guys think? Could this be the big money maker of 2017?
Topic: [AMP] Synereo Speculation - page 5. (Read 12634 times)
did you forget that the shorter the timeframe, the closer the price is from a random walk, hard to apply any statistics. plus AMP doesn't provide you with decades of data
Yes short timeframes like 5 minutes or so. I have put in all the data we have,and working with 30 minutes datapoints, so a lot of noise is cutoff through that.
I can't go with lower data because my resources are limited, and the calculation is very CPU intentive.
A fresh market is farther from a random walk, than an old market. The older a market is, the more efficient it becomes.
I wouldn't say the older, but rather the more actively traded, but yes random walk was not optimal word.
What I meant is that predictability and probabilities of forecasting are tending toward 0 as the timeframe goes lower. the higher the timeframe the higher the predictability or forecasting capacity.
did you forget that the shorter the timeframe, the closer the price is from a random walk, hard to apply any statistics. plus AMP doesn't provide you with decades of data
Yes short timeframes like 5 minutes or so. I have put in all the data we have,and working with 30 minutes datapoints, so a lot of noise is cutoff through that.
I can't go with lower data because my resources are limited, and the calculation is very CPU intentive.
A fresh market is farther from a random walk, than an old market. The older a market is, the more efficient it becomes.
what model do you use ? ARMA?
anyway, if you had a really working model, you wouldn't be showing off over internet, but rather keeping it for yourself.
No ARMA models are not flexible, it is a parametrized model with where the most common frequency and autocorrelation parameters are the input, on the sample data of course.
I have backtested it on itself and it showed good results, but it needs frequent updating.
I did forecast successfully the price jump part from 5100 to 5600, but the model is not a God, it needs constant updating and recalculation to stay in line with the new price.
I will do another forecast soon, and see what will come up now.
did you forget that the shorter the timeframe, the closer the price is from a random walk, hard to apply any statistics. plus AMP doesn't provide you with decades of data
what model do you use ? ARMA?
anyway, if you had a really working model, you wouldn't be showing off over internet, but rather keeping it for yourself.
No ARMA models are not flexible, it is a parametrized model with where the most common frequency and autocorrelation parameters are the input, on the sample data of course.
I have backtested it on itself and it showed good results, but it needs frequent updating.
I did forecast successfully the price jump part from 5100 to 5600, but the model is not a God, it needs constant updating and recalculation to stay in line with the new price.
I will do another forecast soon, and see what will come up now.
I honestly, I gave up whole AMP's activity after last weeks dump's and news. I somites check it out but. I think Amp is DEAD.I can't see future anymore.
Vox up by 10% booked my profits 
Not trying to derail the topic. I will enter AMP @ 4500 - 5000, I think M has started to form. Of course a reversal may happen when 5900 gets breached, forming another W.
P.S I dont hold on to coins or research or promises made or anything. I mean throw two spiders into a lane, and instinctually humans will be drawn to bet which crosses the finish line first. Ofcourse the bookies/ Team A / Team B will try to say one spider is better than the other, one is wearing roller blades, and some other shit. This is due to the duality of human beings, and there will always be one. I am purely a speculative trader. Compared to the brutality of forex trading, this coin trading is like peanuts. Heck I make money by buying from one exchange and selling it to the next. 10% profit per day, and I am happy, with a stop loss of 7%
Not trying to derail the topic. I will enter AMP @ 4500 - 5000, I think M has started to form. Of course a reversal may happen when 5900 gets breached, forming another W.P.S I dont hold on to coins or research or promises made or anything. I mean throw two spiders into a lane, and instinctually humans will be drawn to bet which crosses the finish line first. Ofcourse the bookies/ Team A / Team B will try to say one spider is better than the other, one is wearing roller blades, and some other shit. This is due to the duality of human beings, and there will always be one. I am purely a speculative trader. Compared to the brutality of forex trading, this coin trading is like peanuts. Heck I make money by buying from one exchange and selling it to the next. 10% profit per day, and I am happy, with a stop loss of 7%
Of course it will break out and rise in price in the future. Altcoins are full of manipulation and herd mentality. Once this moves many people will make some bitcoins but many also will lose them in the process. After the pump we will all be back here hearing the complaints that their investment is losing money. The whole truth is there might be nothing behind AMP except promises. If they can show that Rchain will work then I will take back my words.
Cant have a forecast model when factors are too limited and minuscule and individual manipulation is high. 1) The forecast ltself may become a self fulfiling forecast, or 2) whales enter and price goes to limbo. Not against what you saying / forecasting, I made $30 by entering at 5369 and exiting at 5500. But this was based on the W pattern on the 4 hours. It should soon form M.
But AMP, XPEC and Vox are looking for breakout in the coming weeks/months. Meh, not sure.
But AMP, XPEC and Vox are looking for breakout in the coming weeks/months. Meh, not sure.
My forecasts so far have been impeccable:
This is the results of my latest forecast, I have actually underestimated the price.
And this is the extended old prediction, vs the new data that has happened since then:
It's a 7.404% error, for a multi datapoint dynamic forecast, that is very impressive!
Now the interesting thing is that the forecast predicts the price to rise at about 1485723600 unix time, which is Sun, 29 Jan 2017 21:00:00 GMT
This means that there are only 1.5 hours left until the price rise. And with the new data, that I have added to the model, it also confirms this:
So there is an incoming price increase in about 1.5 hours according to my prediction. It may or may not happen, in which case I have to redesign the model, but so far the model has been accurate.
And also this is not an auto-fulfilling prophecy, if you know this or not, the event is supposed to happen according to this model. We shall see!
This is the results of my latest forecast, I have actually underestimated the price.
And this is the extended old prediction, vs the new data that has happened since then:
It's a 7.404% error, for a multi datapoint dynamic forecast, that is very impressive!
Now the interesting thing is that the forecast predicts the price to rise at about 1485723600 unix time, which is Sun, 29 Jan 2017 21:00:00 GMT
This means that there are only 1.5 hours left until the price rise. And with the new data, that I have added to the model, it also confirms this:
So there is an incoming price increase in about 1.5 hours according to my prediction. It may or may not happen, in which case I have to redesign the model, but so far the model has been accurate.
And also this is not an auto-fulfilling prophecy, if you know this or not, the event is supposed to happen according to this model. We shall see!
what model do you use ? ARMA?
anyway, if you had a really working model, you wouldn't be showing off over internet, but rather keeping it for yourself.
Im guessing this did not come to fruition? Not sure.
It did went up a little bit, let's just wait and see now.
The forecast forecasted the price to move up slowly, not suddenly. So it may take a few more days until we see the uptrend being formed.
Maybe I got the timing wrong. I will do another forecast soon when I get home and with the new data that has came in, forecast it again to see what will happen.
My forecasts so far have been impeccable:
This is the results of my latest forecast, I have actually underestimated the price.
And this is the extended old prediction, vs the new data that has happened since then:
It's a 7.404% error, for a multi datapoint dynamic forecast, that is very impressive!
Now the interesting thing is that the forecast predicts the price to rise at about 1485723600 unix time, which is Sun, 29 Jan 2017 21:00:00 GMT
This means that there are only 1.5 hours left until the price rise. And with the new data, that I have added to the model, it also confirms this:
So there is an incoming price increase in about 1.5 hours according to my prediction. It may or may not happen, in which case I have to redesign the model, but so far the model has been accurate.
And also this is not an auto-fulfilling prophecy, if you know this or not, the event is supposed to happen according to this model. We shall see!
This is the results of my latest forecast, I have actually underestimated the price.
And this is the extended old prediction, vs the new data that has happened since then:
It's a 7.404% error, for a multi datapoint dynamic forecast, that is very impressive!
Now the interesting thing is that the forecast predicts the price to rise at about 1485723600 unix time, which is Sun, 29 Jan 2017 21:00:00 GMT
This means that there are only 1.5 hours left until the price rise. And with the new data, that I have added to the model, it also confirms this:
So there is an incoming price increase in about 1.5 hours according to my prediction. It may or may not happen, in which case I have to redesign the model, but so far the model has been accurate.
And also this is not an auto-fulfilling prophecy, if you know this or not, the event is supposed to happen according to this model. We shall see!
Im guessing this did not come to fruition? Not sure.
If it was only an overestimation from Greg Meredith then why did Dor fire him?
Go read the whole account. TLDR: Greg was acting in a way that would get him fired from any company.
Dor fired Greg because Greg promised Dor that Rchain will work by this time. It was not working so they both got in an argument and then Greg started acting in a way that would get him fired after that. Greg was also asking for more money and Dor needed to stop it. Was Greg scamming? We will know in the future. One thing that is sure is Rchain will not work.
My forecasts so far have been impeccable:
This is the results of my latest forecast, I have actually underestimated the price.
And this is the extended old prediction, vs the new data that has happened since then:
It's a 7.404% error, for a multi datapoint dynamic forecast, that is very impressive!
Now the interesting thing is that the forecast predicts the price to rise at about 1485723600 unix time, which is Sun, 29 Jan 2017 21:00:00 GMT
This means that there are only 1.5 hours left until the price rise. And with the new data, that I have added to the model, it also confirms this:
So there is an incoming price increase in about 1.5 hours according to my prediction. It may or may not happen, in which case I have to redesign the model, but so far the model has been accurate.
And also this is not an auto-fulfilling prophecy, if you know this or not, the event is supposed to happen according to this model. We shall see!
This is the results of my latest forecast, I have actually underestimated the price.
And this is the extended old prediction, vs the new data that has happened since then:
It's a 7.404% error, for a multi datapoint dynamic forecast, that is very impressive!
Now the interesting thing is that the forecast predicts the price to rise at about 1485723600 unix time, which is Sun, 29 Jan 2017 21:00:00 GMT
This means that there are only 1.5 hours left until the price rise. And with the new data, that I have added to the model, it also confirms this:
So there is an incoming price increase in about 1.5 hours according to my prediction. It may or may not happen, in which case I have to redesign the model, but so far the model has been accurate.
And also this is not an auto-fulfilling prophecy, if you know this or not, the event is supposed to happen according to this model. We shall see!
If it was only an overestimation from Greg Meredith then why did Dor fire him?
Go read the whole account. TLDR: Greg was acting in a way that would get him fired from any company.
If it was only an overestimation from Greg Meredith then why did Dor fire him? Dor was already beginning to be suspicious of Greg because it was already becoming clear that he was scamming everyone by saying Rchain will work.
Now there you are admitting that you do not care if Synereo runs on a few centralized servers as long as there will be demand for AMP. So what are you saying? It is ok for you that this is really a facebook copy with what might be a scamcoin?
Now there you are admitting that you do not care if Synereo runs on a few centralized servers as long as there will be demand for AMP. So what are you saying? It is ok for you that this is really a facebook copy with what might be a scamcoin?
They might be misleading us. I predict that in the next months they will scrap Rchain and Special K because it cannot be made to work from the very beginning it was conceptualized. In short Greg Meredith may have scammed the CEO of Synereo. He was tricked into thinking that Rchain will work.
Well there is no evidence for that, it could just have been sloppy overestimation from Greg's part. Developers always live in an idealistic world, and maybe his idealism didnt fit reality.
But I haven't invested in AMP because of the blockchain. I could care less about the blockchain. What I do care about is the social aspect of it, that is where the value relies.
A decentralized economy, built on a social media platform, all using AMP, and giving demand to AMP. Even if the data is stored on a few centralized servers, if it's cryptographically provable (their hashes is saved too to be retraceable, and immutable), then it doesnt matter. It could be done like that or with Storj, or any other way, That is not the point.
But when it will start up, and it will be a totally new experience, where people can choose what content they want to see or not, and not just that but there will be a constant demand for AMP, as being the sort of "premium currency", that will get your posts amplified.
The alpha version is nothing. It is only a website and who knows what database it is running on. They promised that they will deliver the most advanced form of blockchain called Rchain and they also marketed Special K to go along with it. They raised millions but what did you get? Nothing. Greg Meredith cannot make it work.
Maybe he cant make it work, but others can. They have hinted that they are hiring new people to work on the project:
I am reading between the lines and thinking that they just very recently hired new people and new work hasn't started yet.
Aside from Greg, no one from the old team has left in the past few months, and we've since hired 2 new developers, another IT guy, and will likely close with another dev in the coming week.
Work has not stopped for a second.
Besides, at this point, doesn't matter what platform they choose, I believe the whole idea as it is, is worth it.
Now I am sure they will do what they have promised, I have no doubt about that. However, even if the alpha will be a little bit rough version of the concept, even then, I believe the price will rise.
It will be the 2nd blockchain social media after Steemit, that I know about. And it will definitely gain a huge popularity.
AMP will be the currency that will "amplify" your posts, so it will automaticaly have a demand, like a premium currency in a video game.
I can only see the AMP price going up.
They might be misleading us. I predict that in the next months they will scrap Rchain and Special K because it cannot be made to work from the very beginning it was conceptualized. In short Greg Meredith may have scammed the CEO of Synereo. He was tricked into thinking that Rchain will work.
I did pretty good with the last forecast. I have actually underestimated the price:
Although the curves are very similar. I will put out a new forecast tomorrow, and analyze more in depth the current situation. At the moment I am not at home so I cant do it now.
Although the curves are very similar. I will put out a new forecast tomorrow, and analyze more in depth the current situation. At the moment I am not at home so I cant do it now.
The alpha version is nothing. It is only a website and who knows what database it is running on. They promised that they will deliver the most advanced form of blockchain called Rchain and they also marketed Special K to go along with it. They raised millions but what did you get? Nothing. Greg Meredith cannot make it work.
Maybe he cant make it work, but others can. They have hinted that they are hiring new people to work on the project:
I am reading between the lines and thinking that they just very recently hired new people and new work hasn't started yet.
Aside from Greg, no one from the old team has left in the past few months, and we've since hired 2 new developers, another IT guy, and will likely close with another dev in the coming week.
Work has not stopped for a second.
Besides, at this point, doesn't matter what platform they choose, I believe the whole idea as it is, is worth it.
Now I am sure they will do what they have promised, I have no doubt about that. However, even if the alpha will be a little bit rough version of the concept, even then, I believe the price will rise.
It will be the 2nd blockchain social media after Steemit, that I know about. And it will definitely gain a huge popularity.
AMP will be the currency that will "amplify" your posts, so it will automaticaly have a demand, like a premium currency in a video game.
I can only see the AMP price going up.
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