Lets see if bitcoin just fuck off this yet another ending diagonal =)
Break up?
Perhaps...
Topic: Analysis - page 320. (Read 941596 times)
Break up?
Perhaps...
Lets see if bitcoin just fuck off this yet another ending diagonal =)
Can you prove we are not in wave 5?
Only in hindsight I think. If a correction takes out the April 2013 high at 260 on MtGox we were in wave 5. But is not wave 5 usually accompanied by a high degree of optimism, everyone is bullish and news is universally positive? I do not think we are there yet but defer to masterluc.
Guys, there's no "proving" here. If something could be proved, we'd all be rich (then subsequently, very broke).
A better phrasing might be "can you convince me that..."
A better phrasing might be "can you convince me that..."
Well we can probably prove that Bitcoin has always been in an uptrend.
Always?
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigHourlyzczsg2013-04-10zeg2013-04-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
Well, that is just a correction, but the full cycle has not completed.So yes, there have been more days of rise, but that's only because it's 5 years old and hasn't had the chance to have the long correction yet
Guys, there's no "proving" here. If something could be proved, we'd all be rich (then subsequently, very broke).
A better phrasing might be "can you convince me that..."
A better phrasing might be "can you convince me that..."
Well we can probably prove that Bitcoin has always been in an uptrend.
Always?
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigHourlyzczsg2013-04-10zeg2013-04-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
Can you prove we are not in wave 5?
Only in hindsight I think. If a correction takes out the April 2013 high at 260 on MtGox we were in wave 5. But is not wave 5 usually accompanied by a high degree of optimism, everyone is bullish and news is universally positive? I do not think we are there yet but defer to masterluc.
Guys, there's no "proving" here. If something could be proved, we'd all be rich (then subsequently, very broke).
A better phrasing might be "can you convince me that..."
A better phrasing might be "can you convince me that..."
Well we can probably prove that Bitcoin has always been in an uptrend.
Shit after shit. :-)
Buy and Hold (& Learn)
Buy and Hold (& Learn)
Guys, there's no "proving" here. If something could be proved, we'd all be rich (then subsequently, very broke).
A better phrasing might be "can you convince me that..."
A better phrasing might be "can you convince me that..."
Can you prove we are not in wave 5?
I had to change my wave count and agree that we are in 3 of 5, and may be close to the end of wave 3:
If wave 3 really ends around 450 USD on MtGox a corrective wave 4 down to 260-300 would signal a strong buying opportunity.
If wave 3 really ends around 450 USD on MtGox a corrective wave 4 down to 260-300 would signal a strong buying opportunity.
Can you prove we are not in wave 1 (and you will not had to change your wave count in the future) ?
I had to change my wave count and agree that we are in 3 of 5, and may be close to the end of wave 3:
If wave 3 really ends around 450 USD on MtGox a corrective wave 4 down to 260-300 would signal a strong buying opportunity.
If wave 3 really ends around 450 USD on MtGox a corrective wave 4 down to 260-300 would signal a strong buying opportunity.
Hey! This is fun. Why didn't I do this earlier :D
Okay, so let's say we are in fact in sub-wave 5 inside the bigger wave 3 (assuming beginning of July as the starting point of this period).
According to the EW rules (damn. I sound like a cultist :P) the 3rd wave can't be the shortest, so assuming this plays out according to the rules: since wave 1 was longer than wave 3, wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3. Which sets an upper bound when wave 5 will end (November 25, 26).
In addition, each of the waves seems to have a steeper trend line. Well, the latest wave doesn't really have much to work with, but with the 2 points of contact I found it looks like it is indeed climbing faster than 1 and 3. Which could explain why wave 5 will last shorter than the others.
And that's all I can get out of it. Probably should read a bit more on this, huh?
EDIT: made a mistake with the length of 3, so subtract a day or so from the upper bound
(for shits and giggles, here's my childish drawing)
Okay, so let's say we are in fact in sub-wave 5 inside the bigger wave 3 (assuming beginning of July as the starting point of this period).
According to the EW rules (damn. I sound like a cultist :P) the 3rd wave can't be the shortest, so assuming this plays out according to the rules: since wave 1 was longer than wave 3, wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3. Which sets an upper bound when wave 5 will end (November 25, 26).
In addition, each of the waves seems to have a steeper trend line. Well, the latest wave doesn't really have much to work with, but with the 2 points of contact I found it looks like it is indeed climbing faster than 1 and 3. Which could explain why wave 5 will last shorter than the others.
And that's all I can get out of it. Probably should read a bit more on this, huh?
EDIT: made a mistake with the length of 3, so subtract a day or so from the upper bound
(for shits and giggles, here's my childish drawing)
so where is the top of 3 of 5 
I think you're forgetting to count the sub-waves within the larger waves. In this case your wave counts are actually sub-waves of wave (1) in this picture:
Would be nice if bitcoin would exactly follow this pattern but I think in hindsight it's often easier to see and count the waves than try and project them into the future.
Would be nice if bitcoin would exactly follow this pattern but I think in hindsight it's often easier to see and count the waves than try and project them into the future.
it's all very, very confusing.
EW theory, IIRC, is based on human behavior and emotion as applies to economic action. During a long stagnation period like mid-july to end of august, I would posit a sort of "reset" of human behavior. In this case, your 2nd count seems more 'accurate' (whatever that means).
Alright, alright... I've been slamming EW theory in the past but I never actually gave it a real chance. Read up a bit on it tonight, so let's take this baby for a spin...
... aaaand I'm puzzled.
How am I supposed to decide which wave is which? Both divisions I came up with (see below), starting in early July (which I strongly feel needs to be the starting point of whatever exactly we are in now), make equally sense to me. The thing is, the period from September 1st to October 1st doesn't look like any wave at all, just like treading water. Or maybe the division in my 2nd picture is actually the sub-division of the ongoing wave 3 in the first picture... it's all very, very confusing.
... aaaand I'm puzzled.
How am I supposed to decide which wave is which? Both divisions I came up with (see below), starting in early July (which I strongly feel needs to be the starting point of whatever exactly we are in now), make equally sense to me. The thing is, the period from September 1st to October 1st doesn't look like any wave at all, just like treading water. Or maybe the division in my 2nd picture is actually the sub-division of the ongoing wave 3 in the first picture... it's all very, very confusing.
Oh, this is lucif?
Always liked his analysis, best here by a mile.
Always liked his analysis, best here by a mile.
Did we complet wave 4 of 5 of (5)?
What do you Elliott guys think?
Forgive me for being the noobish sheep here, but doesn't the master's fancy gear pictures mean we're currently in (3), 4->5?
Still new to this stuff so I have nothing to back it up except for the aforementioned pictures!
Oh nevermind, I'm a bad reader, 3 isn't for this trend but for the historical one.Still new to this stuff so I have nothing to back it up except for the aforementioned pictures!
I didn't even know such a fractal scale was possible with the Elliott waves
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