Topic: =Analysis Fractal= (Read 4705 times)
Considering even you think that's unlikely, it probably will be the true figure, as the peak of each bubble comes as a shock to most of the participants.
Cancer.
Lol
Considering even you think that's unlikely, it probably will be the true figure, as the peak of each bubble comes as a shock to most of the participants.
Cancer.
I vote scenario D, we get a corrective wave up to the 200MA, then after EURUSD is done squeezing all the shorters, BTCUSD goes sub 100.
Good analysis. Following.
I admire Livemore's technical yet cold approach. But prices like 40k$ while we are below 250$ are out of space.
I think BRK-A would like to disagree with you on that (1980 price around 250usd)
I admire Livemore's technical yet cold approach. But prices like 40k$ while we are below 250$ are out of space.
@ Livermore:
Now, looking at your most recent charts, I *want* to believe that we are at the bottom of the channel, because I am heavily vested in bitcoin right now.
But I would be lying if I didn't acknowledge that your fractals show a new possible drop to unbelievably low levels. However, we both know that speculation trumps fundamentals trumps technical analysis.
So it would make sense that we *would* have hit that low of double digits, but we are actually going to stay above it (artificially) due to all the positive news and artificial buy walls in between $90 and $210.
I would tend to agree with you though, that if we break down through $210, we will meet resistance below $150.
This seems impossible with current developments, investments, and conditions but stranger things have happened.
Now, here's the exciting bit. If you are right, and the previous pattern started at $5 and carried us to $1,000 then we are looking at a penultimate peak of $40,000 for the next macro-movement.
Astute followers of Cryptovivik Livernalysis may be taking this pattern out to its logical conclusion.
They will find the next 'crash' may take us down about 85% from the new high of approximately $40,000 to around $6,000 per coin, which then begins the next macro-bubble of... (hold onto your butts) a ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
If the cycle repeated again, that $1.2 million dollar bitcoin would crash down to $180,000 before beginning a move to $36,000,000 per coin which would take bitcoin's market cap to *above* the total value of money on Earth.
This would logically lead to a nasty crash down to 15% of the value, or a final fluctuating value of about $5M per bitcoin.
Now this assumes the fractal will keep the same severity of movement through the echelons. Likely, it would flatten out and the movements would become less severe through each successive macro-movement, leading to final bitcoin stabilization.
Just be aware that a final value of $5,000,000 is by no means set in stone for bitcoin, especially if it becomes the default reserve currency of Earth.
Now, looking at your most recent charts, I *want* to believe that we are at the bottom of the channel, because I am heavily vested in bitcoin right now.
But I would be lying if I didn't acknowledge that your fractals show a new possible drop to unbelievably low levels. However, we both know that speculation trumps fundamentals trumps technical analysis.
So it would make sense that we *would* have hit that low of double digits, but we are actually going to stay above it (artificially) due to all the positive news and artificial buy walls in between $90 and $210.
I would tend to agree with you though, that if we break down through $210, we will meet resistance below $150.
This seems impossible with current developments, investments, and conditions but stranger things have happened.
Now, here's the exciting bit. If you are right, and the previous pattern started at $5 and carried us to $1,000 then we are looking at a penultimate peak of $40,000 for the next macro-movement.
Astute followers of Cryptovivik Livernalysis may be taking this pattern out to its logical conclusion.
They will find the next 'crash' may take us down about 85% from the new high of approximately $40,000 to around $6,000 per coin, which then begins the next macro-bubble of... (hold onto your butts) a ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
If the cycle repeated again, that $1.2 million dollar bitcoin would crash down to $180,000 before beginning a move to $36,000,000 per coin which would take bitcoin's market cap to *above* the total value of money on Earth.
This would logically lead to a nasty crash down to 15% of the value, or a final fluctuating value of about $5M per bitcoin.
Now this assumes the fractal will keep the same severity of movement through the echelons. Likely, it would flatten out and the movements would become less severe through each successive macro-movement, leading to final bitcoin stabilization.
Just be aware that a final value of $5,000,000 is by no means set in stone for bitcoin, especially if it becomes the default reserve currency of Earth.
Okay.. um... yea... so ... i think if bitcoin hits the 100K + per coin range, then people are not going to "sell" to get fiat. You'll just buy whatever the fuck you want with bitcoin. At which point then you can simply buy a house by the beach for like 6 coins. thats my opinion.
peak of that bull run should take us to around $40,000.
Considering we are under 200day EMA ($310), which means we are still officially in a bear market, it is 5 stages too early to be calling peaks of next bubble, if that even happens.
And the peak of that bull run should take us to around $40,000.
Can you ELI5 please exactly how you came up with that figure? His analysis looks more bearish to me than anything else.
@ Livermore:
$40,000 for the next macro-movement
ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
$40,000 for the next macro-movement
ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
No. This thread is for fractal analysis not for get-rich-quick dreams.
Your own fractal analysis suggests that whatever the bottom is, once it is past we will be starting a new monster bull run, right? This cycle will take about 3 years.
And the peak of that bull run should take us to around $40,000.
Considering even you think that's unlikely, it probably will be the true figure, as the peak of each bubble comes as a shock to most of the participants.
On reddit it's treated as partial satire, which plays well there so it gets upvoted. Still, the next bubble following the trend would be expected to be something like that. It's not a particularly surprising result, though saying it's from Livermore's analysis is a step too far.
@ Livermore:
$40,000 for the next macro-movement
ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
$40,000 for the next macro-movement
ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
No. This thread is for fractal analysis not for get-rich-quick dreams.
Can you believe this guy posted a thread on reddit implying that your analysis claims $40,000 BTC? When are people going to learn to stop upvoting hyper delusional americanpegasus posts. Someone has been smoking the bath salts again..........
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/35ozkj/fractal_analysis_suggests_we_are_near_the_bottom/
@ Livermore:
$40,000 for the next macro-movement
ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
$40,000 for the next macro-movement
ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
No. This thread is for fractal analysis not for get-rich-quick dreams.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/6S9Si6F7-BTCUSD-STILL-REMAINS-IN-OVERALL-BEARISH-CYCLE-UPDATE/
DanV's Elliot Waves support scen B: Final bottom at $90
So far scen B seems most likely. 1. Indicators are on point. 2. Fractals are on point. 3. It is least popular voted in the poll.
If we break under 210, Scen A is ruled out and we face the mother of all capitulations
DanV's Elliot Waves support scen B: Final bottom at $90
So far scen B seems most likely. 1. Indicators are on point. 2. Fractals are on point. 3. It is least popular voted in the poll.
If we break under 210, Scen A is ruled out and we face the mother of all capitulations
@ Livermore:
Now, looking at your most recent charts, I *want* to believe that we are at the bottom of the channel, because I am heavily vested in bitcoin right now.
But I would be lying if I didn't acknowledge that your fractals show a new possible drop to unbelievably low levels. However, we both know that speculation trumps fundamentals trumps technical analysis.
So it would make sense that we *would* have hit that low of double digits, but we are actually going to stay above it (artificially) due to all the positive news and artificial buy walls in between $90 and $210.
I would tend to agree with you though, that if we break down through $210, we will meet resistance below $150.
This seems impossible with current developments, investments, and conditions but stranger things have happened.
Now, here's the exciting bit. If you are right, and the previous pattern started at $5 and carried us to $1,000 then we are looking at a penultimate peak of $40,000 for the next macro-movement.
Astute followers of Cryptovivik Livernalysis may be taking this pattern out to its logical conclusion.
They will find the next 'crash' may take us down about 85% from the new high of approximately $40,000 to around $6,000 per coin, which then begins the next macro-bubble of... (hold onto your butts) a ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
If the cycle repeated again, that $1.2 million dollar bitcoin would crash down to $180,000 before beginning a move to $36,000,000 per coin which would take bitcoin's market cap to *above* the total value of money on Earth.
This would logically lead to a nasty crash down to 15% of the value, or a final fluctuating value of about $5M per bitcoin.
Now this assumes the fractal will keep the same severity of movement through the echelons. Likely, it would flatten out and the movements would become less severe through each successive macro-movement, leading to final bitcoin stabilization.
Just be aware that a final value of $5,000,000 is by no means set in stone for bitcoin, especially if it becomes the default reserve currency of Earth.
Now, looking at your most recent charts, I *want* to believe that we are at the bottom of the channel, because I am heavily vested in bitcoin right now.
But I would be lying if I didn't acknowledge that your fractals show a new possible drop to unbelievably low levels. However, we both know that speculation trumps fundamentals trumps technical analysis.
So it would make sense that we *would* have hit that low of double digits, but we are actually going to stay above it (artificially) due to all the positive news and artificial buy walls in between $90 and $210.
I would tend to agree with you though, that if we break down through $210, we will meet resistance below $150.
This seems impossible with current developments, investments, and conditions but stranger things have happened.
Now, here's the exciting bit. If you are right, and the previous pattern started at $5 and carried us to $1,000 then we are looking at a penultimate peak of $40,000 for the next macro-movement.
Astute followers of Cryptovivik Livernalysis may be taking this pattern out to its logical conclusion.
They will find the next 'crash' may take us down about 85% from the new high of approximately $40,000 to around $6,000 per coin, which then begins the next macro-bubble of... (hold onto your butts) a ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
If the cycle repeated again, that $1.2 million dollar bitcoin would crash down to $180,000 before beginning a move to $36,000,000 per coin which would take bitcoin's market cap to *above* the total value of money on Earth.
This would logically lead to a nasty crash down to 15% of the value, or a final fluctuating value of about $5M per bitcoin.
Now this assumes the fractal will keep the same severity of movement through the echelons. Likely, it would flatten out and the movements would become less severe through each successive macro-movement, leading to final bitcoin stabilization.
Just be aware that a final value of $5,000,000 is by no means set in stone for bitcoin, especially if it becomes the default reserve currency of Earth.
@ Livermore:
First of all, amazing job on the charts so far. I am studying them with bated breath.
Secondly, in honor of yourself, me, and a gentleman online who wrote a paper describing bitcoin price's fractal nature, I hereby dub this Pegafractal Cryptovivik Livernalysis, and have made a very corporate logo to celebrate.
First of all, amazing job on the charts so far. I am studying them with bated breath.
Secondly, in honor of yourself, me, and a gentleman online who wrote a paper describing bitcoin price's fractal nature, I hereby dub this Pegafractal Cryptovivik Livernalysis, and have made a very corporate logo to celebrate.
https://i.imgur.com/8RkX8g7.png
New analysis, this time monthly chart with the 2000's Yahoo bubble. In this view the entire move of BTC from $5 to $1200 was one massive bubble in three parts, not three bubbles.
This fractal supports Scen B: Bottom at $90.
AO supports B and C.
Fisher supports B and C.
Aroon supports B.
Very bullish if price breaks above $330, the 10month (30 week, 200day) EMA, scenario B and C become very unlikely. Otherwise its current destiny is down down down to $90 for a capitulation bottom. We shall see.
My suggestion: Current portfolio 70%BTC 30%Fiat. If price breaks under 210, all out and rebuy at $90 (Scen B playing with possible Scen C continuation). If price breaks above $330, all in (Scen A playing).
https://i.imgur.com/8RkX8g7.png
New analysis, this time monthly chart with the 2000's Yahoo bubble. In this view the entire move of BTC from $5 to $1200 was one massive bubble in three parts, not three bubbles.
This fractal supports Scen B: Bottom at $90.
AO supports B and C.
Fisher supports B and C.
Aroon supports B.
Very bullish if price breaks above $330, the 10month (30 week, 200day) EMA, scenario B and C become very unlikely. Otherwise its current destiny is down down down to $90 for a capitulation bottom. We shall see.
My suggestion: Current portfolio 70%BTC 30%Fiat. If price breaks under 210, all out and rebuy at $90 (Scen B playing with possible Scen C continuation). If price breaks above $330, all in (Scen A playing).
https://i.imgur.com/8RkX8g7.png
Hey maths genius, care to show how this technique worked at predicting the future when backtested on the previous bubbles?
Speculative fractal patterns are highly up to the arbitrary interpretation of the chart-holder. I attempt to chart possible scenarios matching up past patterns of tops, crashes, and intersections with major indicators (200day EMA for example) and rule out scenarios as market disproves them over time, narrowing the possibilities to just a few, or even just 1.
This is not the sole basis of my trading, I use other indicators too.
------
Here is one of my works from 2013. Due to a variety of analysis, that chart included, I did end up going all in at $75 ish on the big capitulation of June 2013. Lovely right?
:Charts:
I took the 2011 bubble chart, overlayed it on the current chart to match the top, bottom, sucker's rally and resistance levels, and appended the extra portion to the current graph. Very simple TA but it has made me extravagant amounts of money so far.
In one month we shall compare the actual chart to this chart, and they might be very similar.
"But this time it's different!"
Thoughts?
https://i.imgur.com/gtyiKji.png
I took the 2011 bubble chart, overlayed it on the current chart to match the top, bottom, sucker's rally and resistance levels, and appended the extra portion to the current graph. Very simple TA but it has made me extravagant amounts of money so far.
In one month we shall compare the actual chart to this chart, and they might be very similar.
"But this time it's different!"
Thoughts?
https://i.imgur.com/gtyiKji.png
Of course there remains the possibility of a similar situation to August 2012. This situation would take BTC on a rally to 180 and then a flatline.
However, note that this activity occured when the price of BTC was close to the all-time logarithmic trend line.
Also, November was the block reward halving event. Thus this rally was further fueled by the halving of the BTC supply.
Given the current high price of BTC relative to changes in infrastructure, as well as the deviation from the logarithmic trendline and lack of block halving, this possibility remains very unlikely.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zig6-hourzczsg2012-05-19zeg2012-12-12ztgSzm1g40zm2g25zl
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=6-hour&c=1&s=2012-05-19&e=2012-12-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=40&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&
However, note that this activity occured when the price of BTC was close to the all-time logarithmic trend line.
Also, November was the block reward halving event. Thus this rally was further fueled by the halving of the BTC supply.
Given the current high price of BTC relative to changes in infrastructure, as well as the deviation from the logarithmic trendline and lack of block halving, this possibility remains very unlikely.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zig6-hourzczsg2012-05-19zeg2012-12-12ztgSzm1g40zm2g25zl
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=6-hour&c=1&s=2012-05-19&e=2012-12-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=40&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&
Hey maths genius, care to show how this technique worked at predicting the future when backtested on the previous bubbles?
Jump to: