This page will give you some idea of what you should use as a difficulty increment :- https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
I don't understand why people keep referencing this website. I proved it was wrong last change. It called a 30%+ increase 3 days before the change, when the numbers showed about 24% - 25%.
Right now the numbers are showing a decrease in difficulty.. but this website seems to be arbitrarily picking 11% increase.
M
It's not arbitrary at all. Bitcoinwisdom bases it's estimation on the time it took to find the last 2016 blocks just like bitcoin does.
Do the math yourself. I did for the last change, and proved it wrong.
M
There is no such thing as "doing the math".
What you are doing is called astrology.
Quite the contrary. There is such a thing as doing the math.
Get the timestamp of the last block solved before the difficulty change.
Get the timestamp of the last block solved.
Subtract the 1st one from the 2nd one.
Divide that by the numbers of blocks solved since the last change.
That's how often the network is solving blocks since last change.
You'll see that number works out to 10.59 minutes per block so far.
Last change, 3 days before, bitcoinwisdom was saying 30%. My math was saying 23.6% at the time, and I figured it would likely increase a little more, but certainly not 6% more. Actual increase? 24.93%.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7517267
M
A single sample will not prove you true or its not scientific.
It can be coincidence. You put you current calculations and look at next change.
At the near of difficulty change they too come to the same %.
