I'm sure someone could devise a way to calculate the odds of a coin reaching a certain price point based on various factors, though just like with gambling, probability does not always fall in your favor. Risky business.
Use your mind's eye and you will see a world of riches. Right?
Yet it's not possible to accurate predict market prices, given the adherent factors, such as the fact there is no certainty there will be a market.
There are many kind of risks. Hypothetically, I present you an ICO filled with awesome propositions that I can't deliver yet they sound somewhat believable: you're gonna buy on the risk - or gamble unaware of its odds, which, by the way, are impossible to determine.
I'm giving the benefit of doubt, sure, but this could go both ways easily.
Worst case scenario, if there is a market above ICO price with enough support, devs can dump whatever they bought. The two weeks or whatever is after end of sale don't sound good imo. If doesn't go waaaay over ICO price, there's already 200 BTC in the pocket, why worry? Fuck the useless chain. Let the bagholders be.
Best case scenario, the project is legit and communication is poor and sketchy as hell. I mean, do you expect me to be satisfied with the amount of proof of viability presented in exchange for almost 50k US dollars? People went apeshit with Ethereum when they had a perfectly well explained project and a well-known team behind it, publicly visible.
Outside crypto, would you invest into a perfectly legitimate start-up that needs 50k and has amazing prospects? Generally, I doubt.
The odds, if we're still discussing them, can be sorted out based on this question: What is it more likely?
- to pocket 200 BTC in exchange for the given promises, plus maybe a quite a few extra bitcoins on market dumping
- spend 200 BTC developing quite a few never before seen technologies, on a fork, from a newbie account, that has no website, no references, and presents nothing than image/text based poor explanations, incapable or unwilling to show his ability to create such advances
The problem here is, we have people that want to flip a quick buck. When they're presented with something credible, it's too hard for them to understand. When they see something like this, they fucking get it, they get all hot because it sounds great and they even understand it! But they don't know if it's even possible for such promises to be achieved.
I hope I'm wrong for your sake. Again, I give the benefit of the doubt. It would not be the first time a very good coin started with such shady clues.
But if, and again, IF, this will turn out wrong, you'll be saying either "oh fuck it, I can get it back", or "motherfucking scammers". Either way, they'll have 200 BTC and even more space to come back with other project like this. Over and over.
Sorry for the rant. The main thing I want to point out is judgement, not gamble. Critical thinking is necessary if you care about your money and your investments. I am not disregarding the dev or delivering fud or whatever.
