Hi everyone.
Mass adoption and *significant* demand will be required for value of Ether to rise *at all*
Can that really happen in a world just starting to grasp Bitcoin?
In order for Ether to increase in value at all, there has to be an ever-increasing level of demand of real-world economic adoption in a setting where more and more ether is constantly being created.
In order for Ether to go up one "penny", adoption must be fast, worldwide, outpace the inflation built in to the system *and* outpace Bitcoin adoption.
Let's try to think what that really means.
Bitcoin has market share. Familiarity. Recognition. Adoption. Five years under its belt as the first and most widespread Crypto. This is a huge ... huge ... huge obstacle to compete with. It makes *absolutely no difference* that one is better than the other. None. The vast majority of human beings are 100% uneducated on this stuff, and very skittish with new technologies. ESPECIALLY when it comes to their money. They have only just begun accepting Bitcoin, kicking and screaming the entire way. Its been a mess of misinformation, confusion, paranoias, fears and a complexity that most can't grasp. Yet its finally just now piercing that obstacle and beginning to become accepted. For *one* crypto to accomplish this, is monumental. Bitcoin has already gone worldwide. I am not certain I agree that this is like myspace and then facebook. Or webcrawler and then google. The learning curve was nearly zero when myspace came out. And the transition to Facebook / Google was ONLY SUCCESSFUL because it was simple and seamless. Human beings resist change when things are even SLIGHTLY complex, or confusing. Because of the complexity, uncertainty, and "fear of the unknown" that Bitcoin brings, people are going to lock down on Bitcoin, and may not let go. To put it another way, I picture many saying: "You finally got me to grasp this crazy crypto whatever, and im still a little freaked out by the whole thing, and now there's this Ether somethingoranother and you want me to make the jump to that? No thanks. I'll stick with Bitcoin." Getting the *entire world* to just "hop off" the Bitcoin wagon and jump over to something even more complex and completely new could be difficult, if not impossible. While educated people in the crypto world may hail Ether as something amazing, the average person may stick to Bitcoin. And that means adoption is going to be severely hindered with Ether. And if that is the case, Ether will go down in value, or struggle to maintain its value. If Ether doesn't literally become a bitcoin killer and totally replace it - and not with nerds - but with people in 3rd world countries who are just now learning Bitcoin .... its not going to go anywhere. Reality tells us that "better systems" are often not adopted when they are complex. Perfect example: GPG messaging, versus regular email. Clearly a superior system. Could've gone gangbusters. Never did. Why? This may happen with Ripple. And it may happen with Ether. There will have to be a massive, (and i mean massive) marketing effort that targets the slowly "comprehending" business owners and entrepreneurs that are still just getting their heads around Bitcoin. Maybe its timing. Maybe if Ether happened on the scene 4 years from now, when Bitcoin is a household term, and everyone totally "got it" .... right down to Grandma .... then Ether could pop up and say "Here's something even better", and the world would flock to it. But they're still trying to get comfortable with Bitcoin .... and I really wonder if the adoption necessary for investors to reap any return on investment will actually happen. Maybe in 5 years, if we're lucky? Then again, they say Bitcoin is 7x faster than "internet time" in evolution and adoption. So maybe it won't be 5 years before the African man with a basic smartphone in the jungle using Bitcoin, transitions to Ether. Or maybe if both can exist side by side, allowing Bitcoin to "do what it does", and still generate significant demand for Ether, then adoption will outpace ether inflation. But I fear the required adoption model which would push the value of Ether up, may not pan out.
Disclaimer: Playing Devil's Advocate. Thoughts?
Bitcoin serves very well as the prime currency of the crypto world. Ether will not replace it nor does it intend to. Bitcoin will continue to be the premier currency; ethereum will do everything else. Ethereum is not intended to fill the role of currency--it's a platform that can be programmed to fill any role at all. Smart contracts, dao's, etc will cause ethereum to be a major tool for decentralization of everything. Ether is less a currency and more like the electricity that makes the machine run. IMO.
That's what i understood!!