XRP is gonna surpass ETH for good it seems. 
It might be have more market cap than ETH occasionally. But in the long term, ETH will be higher.
Support level for ETH is still more high as compare with XRP. ETH has good use case and with more secure platform. I would like to say this could be bull trap because they big bags to make empty on newcomers while on other hand ETH is solid and strong project.
But ETH also depends on the success of the use cases that are being built on it. If it still takes a couple of years from now until we see a first application working at scale, a lot of people will lose trust in the platform in the meantime.
It won't take that long. Ethereum will be scaled 100% there are too many people involved in development. However first applications in the scale we could see them built on other platforms. There is a strong competition right now and it's good for healthy ecosystem growth.
I agree with your point that there is too much skin in the game for a lot of people and the incentive is very high to come up with solutions, but you never know for sure.
If you don't already get em, look up Week in Ethereum and subscribe. That newsletter always contains links to the dev calls for the various dev teams (core, eth2.0, plasma, etc). Not many people track these, but they give you first-rate insight into development.
