I am aware of all the discussions and have my own view, I was just interested in which elements you took into account for your view e.g technical, chain functionality, currency, markets price and interest, centralize vs decentralize, trust/loss of trust, security, distribution etc. Also, what do you define as a financial disaster.
Isn't it obvious? Financial disaster happens if there is a loss of confidence. Crypto currencies are especially vulnerable. A small group of people decided they need hf to bail out failed project. Now it is obvious this small group can be forced to make the next fork.
Meh, sorry I just don't buy it. We're still seeing articles of industry leads continually touting Ethereum tech. Yes, there are the few who write about how the HF is detrimental (trust issues and all that). But with the latest news from Msft, not to mention the price drastically pumping after the HF...I mean....I simply don't buy in to the idea that Ethereum is in the middle of a disaster or is dying or however one might want to tag it. It seems the masses value Eth more now than before the HF.
The price is no indicator about quality. It's a result of the wish to make money and Investors/Speculators/Traders will invest as long as they believe that the ETH-price gives chances for that. They (we) also would buy into scams if there would be the believe that enough others will buy even more and drive the price - before the race would start to go out sooner than others.
Not saying Ethereum is a scam, just want to say: The price is not about quality and btw.: It seems manipulated and backed.
More important is one question in my opinion:
If we think about Ethereum out of the perspective of potential Customers who want to use it for Smart Contracts, for their real business:
Would they trust the tech? Is it really possible to feel safe with it? If Ethereum-Developers don't seem to be able to develop something like TheDAO secure, how will it be possible for anybody to feel safe with it? And I doubt that a HF gave more trust in general.
And in the end it will need real use, or the price will go down. It's not possible to build Ethereum and than a project that is funded with expensive Ether to fund Ethereum-projects like Slock.it etc., if nothing leads beyond Ethereum to real business and money outside of Ethereum's eco-system, which is based on speculation, Magic won't happen.
And that circles back to the question: Will there be enough trust in Ethereum that real-business-Customers will use it?
Because it's possible that everybody who is interested in technologies with a focus on Smart Contracts watches Ethereum with high interest - but not to use it. I believe, the highest risk for Ethereum will be competition, that there could be better systems in future, most likely not that complex but more secure, maybe specialized for different purposes and so on. Ethereum seems like a project that wants to be "all-in-one" but all is nothing if there is a lack of stability and security and trust.
I'm not saying that it's that way. I'm not sure. But before all it's safe to say: The price is no indicator and "masses" are not always right. "They all" (let's say "too many") bought into TheDAO and it was a total lack of quality. And the hype was irrational but maybe intended, while it would have been even more irrational if it would have increased in price after launch - some people believe it would.
I personally never understood the high price and I still don't understand why it's still high and I expect it to go down. Because: All value (price) is based on speculation and conclusions are based on the price ---> that is a circle that can't work out.