In Crypto the highest intense identification is profit. But the identification is much deeper than just money. In the end, money stands for "perspective" or "chances" and "feeling safe", also for "power" and so on. It has deeper meaning than just the number of Bitcoins or the dollars in cash. But, there is an extreme conflict: While it stands for something that should last over a long time (nobody wants money and what it stands for just for some minutes) everybody wants it quick. And the Crypto-market is really extreme in that. It's about "i want much!" and "soon!". And that's the point where people believe to invest while they in fact just bet. They believe to invest because they believe that the Dev-teams develop value that will last. But they "invest" in projects that give short-term-signals. And if teams give short-term-signals it says something about their intentions. That makes the whole Crypto-market very paradox. Because what is green for longterm is red for short term and the other way around. If a Dev-team gives too many "buy-signals" for short-term, I consider all possibilities of dishonest actions of the team. Paycoin was a masterpiece-example. ;-)
All what is on "red" for short-term-thinkers now, is not just green in my opinion. If I'm right with my prediction, it's a catapult.
Exactly -- nicely said. I think this is really important. I was joking with a friend yesterday that I only invest in coins whose price is being suppressed by whales (in order to accumulate) who know more than I do. Well ... sort of joking. But considering what you've written, the situation becomes: how to maintain a bigger-picture, longer-term stance in a market dominated by short-term signals and a short-term mentality?
Good question... hard to answer. First: I believe that short-term-thinking (what it expresses) is natural for us as human beings. I mean, everybody would like to have what he/she wants as soon as possible. What I believe is the most important, and not just in Crypto but generally: To know about own intentions and to understand that there is a difference between to be driven by those intentions (impulsive acting and communicating --> leads into conflicts that will be like miracles if not understood) and to make self-aware decisions. The rest is about the question what is effective? And it's not effective to be one of those who act impulsive while it can be very effective to watch it and to consider it into conclusions. And while I'm personally not really patient I hate it to have time as enemy. That's why one of my own rules for myself is: What's the best way to get time on to my side. And that can't be short-term-thinking. In best case that would be a fight that is not without any chance but with a high risk to lose.
And Factom is again a good example, because if successful it wouldn't even need trading for the price to rise - just EC-demand - and I consider time not as enemy in this project but as a "friend". But the market is part of the game, short-term-thinking is part of the game, and most likely (if successful) hyping and pumping and bubbles will also be part of future price dynamics like it was in the past.
And what we know about this market can be included into whatever somebody believes about Factom. I believe that Factom has a tremendous fundamental potential. And I'm not surprised that a majority doesn't seem to recognize it while it could also be a reason to be concerned. Some react on a dump like "what is wrong with this project?" as if the price would be omniscient while it says nothing - could be a dumper who needs money because his car exploded. ;-) But is it rational to believe that the short-term-thinkers will drive the price if they will get signals which trigger their impulsive behaviour? It's not just rational, it's a safe prediction. And is it rational to expect that those signals will come? If one has reasons to believe in Factom as a project, yes. So, it's something that can be included in the own strategy while it doesn't need to be something to be concerned about or even change the own attitude.
I think the ideal investor is devoted to research, independent-minded, focused more on long-term than short-term, and a bit of a contrarian — or at least aware that market vicissitudes rarely have any bearing on the underlying value of the tech. Easier said than done
... but the goal as far as I can tell.
Yes, it's always about anticipation and conclusions can be right or wrong and sometimes something can seem right because something happens like predicted while there are other reasons. ;-)
And problem in short-term is simply that it's nearly impossible to predict something for short-term without insider-knowledge. Short-termers react on trigger. And in most cases it's just the price plus volume. Some are good in chart-analysis and those who are good in it make more profit then losses but that has not much to do with the projects. For me technical analyses is an info but on my hit-list it's not in the top10.
