Exciting, but do your research
From Paul, "The token supply can grow (if speculators drive up the price) until the price stabilizes. And the token supply can fall (if speculators drive the price down) until the price stabilizes. But in both cases, the stable price is when the value of the token matches the money real applications are spending to buy Entry Credits in order to put data into the protocol. That is because the 73K factoids generated each year naturally trends to the value of the factoids drained from the supply to write into the protocol. If people are spending 1 million dollars to put data into factom per year, then 73K factoids should be worth 1 million dollars".
Currently real money spent equals approx $6000. 6000/73000 = 8 cents / FCT
If the world is spending $1 mil FCT on contracts then price might be around $13
Does this sound about right?
No, it's not really correct. It's about the question at which price will inflation and consumption be leveled out.
If we calculate with 1 Mio Dollar per year:
Inflation will be (there is no inflation yet) at 10% of the total supply if I remember it right, so it would be about 870,000 FCT's per year.
So, the calculation for 1 Mio Dollar per year invested in EC's is:
1,000,000 Dollar / 870,000 FCT's = 1,1 Dollar per FCT
But: 1 Mio Dollar is not that much. It's just a number. If you take a look here, about the data-volume in time of some companies:
http://pennystocks.la/internet-in-real-time/I'm not sure if it's still correct but if it was it won't be less, rather more. Focus on dropbox, just for example:
Dropbox has (in this visualization) about 690,000 files saved per minute.
Per day that is: 496,800,000 files.
If we would calculate that as Entrys in Factom, just for fun as a "brainstorming-theory", it would be:
496,800,000 Entry Credits to each 0.001 Dollar = 496,800 Dollar per day. Inflation is about 2,400 FCT's per day.
496,800 Dollar / 2,400 FCT's = 207 dollar per FCT.
Of course, the question is: Is something like that realistic? Will dropbox use Factom to record their Uploads? No, I don't believe that because most of the data on Dropbox won't be very important and most of the users don't even pay for it.
But, dropbox is just one cloud-storage company. Factom is such an open system that it can be used for nearly everything. Banks, exchanges, medical-records, little companies and big ones, individuals all over the world and so on. From it's base-potential it's very unlimited.
And, if we would have data of the trading of exchanges, or even stock-speed-trading, and calculate something like that, I don't know the result but it would be much much more. Or medical records would be really big and that's absolutely realistic in my opinion. Or recording transactions of banks. It's very unlimited.
With that being said: I can't know what will happen but I believe it will be extrem. If Factom won't fail it will be used. I believe it's that easy. And than it's just a question of time that there also will be much volume. So, the current price is okay in some ways. But if we see it out of speculator-perspective I still see a lot more potential. The current peak was because of azure and even more because of the chinese exchange. If there should be a deal with a bank or whatever, the market would anticipate not just that deal but the potential for 2 more deals. And with every deal the confidence that there will be more will rise. With other words: If the market will see safe signs for success it will overdrive.
That's a reason why I call the current peak in price a correction and not a pump, because those signs were already there months ago.
And: What I really really like in Factom and the FCT-market: The speculation doesn't hurt. The use of the system is about the fixed EC-price, not about the FCT-price. With other words: The FCT-price could fly to 100 Dollar, just out of speculation, but it wouldn't be more expensive to use the system. It would be still 1/10 cent for an entry. The same with the distribution. In a normal crypto-currency the lack of distribution is a problem. It won't be ever a problem of Factom as a system.
To make a long story short: Factom, if it will be realized the way it's planned, is a best-case scenario for every Investor. There will be a calculable price because of the use but there will be also some hype everytime there will be good news. And because it's openness the possibility that we will see times with good news like bangs on a drum is high.
