Another one of those kinks has formed on the masternode adoption profile.
The last time it happened was around the 10th of April. It also coincided with a shallow correction, but no crash. The current "kink" appears to be following the same behaviour - slow correction but no crash.
Contrast that with the 50% devaluation during the month of June - but no nodecount kink. What gives ? How come a large apparent cash-out in masternode colleteral following a price rise (to be expected) results in only a minor price correction whereas no masternode depletion (month of June) results in a massive 50% crash ?
Need to think.
In the context of Dash's distinct markets, it seems that the supply for creating the big dips (like June's 'crash') comes from the currency sector, not the reserve sector. i.e. reserve market holders only sell when there are reserve market (masternode) buyers whereas currency market holders are far more short term in their trading priorities. This principle is borne out by the consistent nodecount growth and also the minimal price correction whenever one of those 'kinks' occurs in the masternode adoption profile. We must also bear in mind that any holding, however small, can now qualify for the reserve market so we may be observing the discovery of Dash as a genuine monetary asset and a haven for 'parked funds' of any size wanting to earn a return.
On the other hand, the currency market appears to create far larger price movements than large masternode cashouts do. This may be explained by leveraged trading, or it might just be low volume dumping that results in a temporary undervaluation since the reserve market is the one that's in long term demand and there isn't the liquidity available at the highly shorted end of the cycle to meet market requirements.
In summary, what it looks like to me is that the 0.020 level was the market rate - even back in early June. It then got heavily shorted and then bounced back due to lack of liquidity as the reserve market began to reassert itself.
Once back at current levels there is now some genuine exchange of masternode collateral going on (indicated by the recent 'kink' combined with only shallow price correction due to high market depth). Meanwhile, during June there was simply a 'hammering down' of the currency market (blue sector) that was always going to be temporary due to that sector's diminishing speculative authority.
It might be worth observing the correlation between these two indicators (market valuation and nodecount growth) in future to distinguish speculative trading from genuine asset transfers
Thank you for writing such a great analysis Toknormal, I appreciate your insightful posts. They always make for great reading and afterthought!
, you are such troll on polo
It may, and it is tike to redo that, we all wait for long time.
