regarding the statement "All 30 notaries still get ~1500 KMD" :
This is false, notary mining is dependent on several things. If the operator is inattentive the node will go down and you will get 0 KMD for how ever long the node is down. I check on network health at least weekly, often there are nodes that are offline.
You will do better backing a dedicated operator who is focused on maximizing uptime, and server located at a reliable FAST connection.
But in a perfect world with perfect NN operators, you are right, pick the node with the least amount of votes and get a bigger slice of the pie.
the '~' symbol means approximately bro, obviously if an operator falls asleep for a week and his node dies he'll earn less, but the system jl777 designed means every notary should earn "approx 1500 KMD" per month from here on, otherwise they wont get voted in a second time. Notary vigilance is definitely important at the margins, but it's not enough to give any one notary a significant advantage. I'm assuming the potential rewards from here on will mean the vast majority of nodes will have similar specs and be managed pretty well, and the pools will punish operators who run unreliable nodes. Too much money on the table now!
Some interesting game theory ahead, best strategy will be to spread votes around to even out the payouts.
I will flesh out your ~ with some actual numbers.
You can check out node mining with a CLI command that provides number of blocks the 64 nodes have mined out of the last 2000 mined. I do this a lot.
Over November and December I logged the mining figures 25 times:
KMD / mth blocks/ ave month blocks/ 2000 blocks
899.8199951 299.9399984 14.04166667 min
1829.010969 609.6703231 28.54166667 max
1536.719663 512.2 23.98046875 ave
1574.017469 524.7 24.5625 median
195.99 65.33 3.06 stddev
You would want to back a NN operator like the one that runs node 41.
I have checked hundreds of times, it is how I check to see if my node is running well.
Node 41 has only been below average 3x that I saw ever, and only 1 time with komodo down. Mining is only one part of this job, and not really as important to NN operators as you may think. KMD mining is nice to log, but notarization stats are paramount. You have one job as an operator: notarization. If you pick the right operator, they will be the one to focus on that.
Let's not discuss the min node, however you may back one of the minimum nodes if you assume we all average 1500.
Also vigilance will keep an operator's node out of elections, period, I would call that a critical advantage. I am vigilant, trust me you want vigilant.