It is 12:06 am in Chicago. I read TeeGee post twice but ran out enough brain power to post a response he deserves. I got an idea. Just re-post it in whole, since it will be better than what I can likely come up. It is certainly worth reading a few times over.
I do have a favorite part :
"The coolest thing is that nobody owns it - not the government, not the bank, but the holders. This can not be said for any other money eco-system".Quote from TeeGee:I have some of my own thoughts to add about the bitcoin crash. For those who have time to read what I found to be a fascinating article on the Willy Bot and Markus Bot at Mt. Gox, you may do so here:
https://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of-massive-fraudulent-trading-activity-at-mt-gox-and-how-it-has-affected-the-price-of-bitcoin/I have elucidated a rather pertinent extract that I agree with (I do not believe the entire article is factually proven, but provides a good theory to explain the 2013 rally):
"Mt. Gox has effectively been abusing Bitcoin to operate a Ponzi scheme for at least a year. The November “bubble” well into the $1000’s – and possibly April’s as well – was driven by hundreds of millions of dollars of fake liquidity pumped into the market out of thin air (note that this is equivalent to “with depositors’ money”). It is only natural that the Bitcoin price would deflate for around 5 months since its December peak, since there was never enough fiat coming in to support these kind of prices in the first place."
We do not know what Bitcoin's real highest value ever was. What we can reasonably believe, is that the price was manipulated heavily by bot activity using liquidity that did not exist. This led to Mt Gox's downfall. I can not be absolutely certain who was behind such trading activity, but there are plenty of incentives that exist to continually pump the coin and then allow it to crash, whether those people be speculative traders, fraudsters, or players who have an interest in destroying Bitcoin by creating volatility. Working this out is not as important to the knowledge that when Bitcoin hit $1200, it was not its true value. We still do not know what the true high would have been because nobody was selling (because why would you put a sell ask up on the wall if you knew it was going to get eaten into anyway?) and this new BTC price low is a direct cause of:
1. A correction in the value of Bitcoin from an artificial pump,
2. Compounding fear of further loss from this fall. Many traders are trading on the technical graphs that include the artificial pump when btc should never have gotten so high anyway! This means traders are making trading decisions based on short and medium term graphs that have negative outlooks for a trader that works with technical analysis.
The views in the previous paragraph closely tie into DYNA's posts these last couple days about wishing to be able to 'defend' any DNotes appreciation at the exchanges, rather than pump and fall. The other key correlation is the herd mentality seen with people who are worried about the long term price correction from the artificial high that I made in my second point. Many traders still use long term (180 day +) charts, and traders who look at the same charts will tend to make similar trading decisions. Traders may be making decisions that have nothing to do with the true market demand for Bitcoin.
In terms of the current Bitcoin price (~200 USD at time of writing), one can argue that despite not knowing the true Bitcoin high, that high was likely FAR more than it was now. I think this low reflects a mixture of buyer confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value and speculative traders having their day.
I see ~200 dollar Bitcoins as the opportunity to buy a brand new Ferrari on sale for the price of a Volvo The prices at the exchanges will correct themselves soon when all the losing speculators jump out of the market.
My personal view is that one of the biggest problems with Bitcoin and crypto in general, is that too many people enter planning to swap back one day into their national currency having made millions. They are treating crypto like a speculative commodity, not a currency with reliable appreciation. These are the people who sell their Bitcoins at the first sign of trouble. These are the people who will miss out and live to regret it.
Currently mining is unprofitable for many (even CEX.io have closed cloud mining), which just leads to more dumping.
I personally see Bitcoin as having gone up from $100 to $200 over the last 2 years. The DNotes team have been wary from the outset that speculation and price volatility has ruined some of their competitors and hindered adoption. This is why they set out from the beginning to be the first stable crypto with long term appreciation. After almost one year the team is well on track to deliver the most attractive 1 year trend-line that has no downturns! Go find me another asset or currency that can net you ~2000% in a year? (had bitcoin stayed at 700-800 like it was at launch, this appreciation would be some 7000%, all without subsequent drops).
This following year will be very exciting for DNotes, Bitcoin and crypto in general. It will be the last year that a significant number of DNotes can be accumulated at a fairly cheap price. Bitcoin is much harder to speculate on, the technology and the coin is fine, just the price is not. We will have to wait to see how the market reacts to the VC raised this last year, and how the heavily skewed Bitcoin distribution to a select few affects market prices if they decide to sell.
I'll leave my final paragraph to my personal view of the true beauty of crypto-currency. The coolest thing is that nobody owns it - not the government, not the bank, but the holders. This can not be said for any other money eco-system. We are the guinea pigs of a decentralised, free-market experiment to highlight that we do not need masters to rule our lives and tell us what IS and what IS NOT money (or what money is legal and what is not). It is the first technology to put the monetary system back into the power of the people who use it, rather than the existing system where people are subject to the whim of the powers who control money, printing more when they want for themselves. The internet was created in 1994, but all the cool stuff like Google, Facebook and YouTube came much later. The advent of blockchain technology is so new, that we don't even know what the blockchain version of Google or Youtube is going to be. Whatever it is, they will pay their employees with DNotes. We own the crypto currencies we use OURSELVES, and we should respect them accordingly. This is going to be a long ride, this has also been a long post (I actually wrote more, but was worried it had become a bit critical of the US government in particular and decided not to post it out of respect for US citizens who may support various government actions. I think I'll write a whole blog on what I omitted...for those who are interested at a later date).
I had my first day back at work today for the year... told my boss I'd give her and her husband (IT guy) some DNotes... she seemed quite receptive while I explained away the advantages of crypto.
Bed time [2:22am]. Look forward to hearing any thoughts in the morning (I'll compress it down maybe for a re-post later).