We have to remember that we're almost 50% of the way before the block reward is cut in half. With more ASICS coming out, how long do we think the that will be? Maybe 3 months? Then, after the following 25 million, it'll be cut in half again. And, when will that be, maybe 3 months after? Maybe it'll be 3 or 4 months in total, if more of the newer ASICS come out. I think this is one of those coins where early miners (now) are reaping the rewards. I don't think it'll take the rest of the year to get to the 50% mark. Do we have any stats of daily or weekly coin production? Those are the numbers we should be keeping an eye on.
It gets cut in half every year. if hashrate goes up 1000 percent so will difficulty to slow the coin down.Right, All though this post made me stop for a sec and say well I wonder how far past schedule we are. So some quick math had me surprised.
Our genesis block (First block ever) was born in November (2013-11-15)
http://184.73.159.72/b/133RV1nfUuThen came premine blocks blocks 1-128 (2013-12-21)
Real Mining (consistent) started at block 129 at (2014-01-04 22:42:52)
So Time now (2014-05-27 08:00:56) - (2014-01-04 22:42:52) = mining period (205,038 minutes)
So "Target" 1 min block time and minus the 128 first block
We should at Time Now be at block 204910
Real block Time Now 190786
We are 14124 blocks behind or 9.80833333333333 days behind
SO we as of the moment and mining slower!!!
This can only be because of the High diff left for small hash to mined 1 days worth of blocks (1440) over many days
The specs page indicates it's at a specific block. That's not calendar/year based? I believe the actual block stated is 525,600…or so it says on the specifications page? Should clarify if the code is calendar or block based halving?
I think the key is to look at (watch) the mining curve. I looked at the past 4 months, and surprisingly, it has slowed down this month…surprising as well, is the fairly steadiness of the 1st 4 months. Here's what the block chain is indicating:
Apr 21 - May 21 = 36023 blocks
Mar 21 - Apr 21 = 42057 blocks
Feb 21 - Mar 21 = 42500 blocks
Jan 21 - Feb 21 = 40556 blocks
I believe your theory is correct. The high difficulty periods, as a result of the "hash pouncers" riding the low difficulty time period and leaving the following days in a state of high difficulty, resulting in the regular miners moving to more profitable coins, thus decreasing overall mining. Albeit, I have been taking my mining earnings elsewhere and buying solarcoins at a cheaper rate than mining them.
The big question is, as the ASICs come onboard, will more hash come during the pounce periods? If so, then the mined blocks should go back up, and maybe even higher. I think that's the line to watch closely, as solarcoin just had it's first monthly hash rate decline, and more ASICs are going to be hitting the market.
The pouncers will pounce where it's profitable. How much ASIC coin production will be profitable? If there's continuous buying of solarcoins, there should be growth in hash rates, as ASIC owners will be scrambling to find profit in coins. If there's not a demand (buying power) to match the supply, then the ASIC owners may leave solarcoin, returning it to the faithful miners. Either way, do you think the hash rate (block production rate) will decline further? There's going to be a flood of scrypt hashing power in the next 1-3 months, especially when KNC's Titan miners hit the streets, all of it looking for anything profitable…and that means the highest rate of return. Solarcoin value may go down, but continue to be a target, as other coins may go down more, still making solarcoin one of the more profitable coins?
Need to know when the block reward will be cut in half…calendar or block 525,600? If solarcoin block rates climb to 50k-60k+/month with ASICs, and it's block based, we'll be there well before the end of the year.
It's hard to predict what the huge hashing power increase that will take place over the coming months will have on scrypt based coins, without knowing what/how coins will trend. As well, without knowing what coins may also be thinking about implementing change?
As for PoS, would need to know how that would affect us loyal miners investing our miners and $ over the past few months to produce and accumulate coins?