I keep seeing people incorrectly quoting XCP @ 0.01 BTC as "half of mastercoin"
This is off by a power of 10. Mastercoin is valued @ around 0.1 BTC right now
If XCP was "half" mastercoin it would be about 0.05 BTC per XCP, or about
5 times what some are saying it is right now.
They probably mean in market cap.
Yes exactly that. Overall marketcap is really all that matters and since there are about 5 times as many XCP as mastercoins, the math does work out.
Someone pointed out that mastercoin marketcap used to be almost double what it is now. One theory is that the drop is due to XCP! If that is the case, then it goes to reason that the fair market value for XCP is whatever the difference between mastercoin marketcap used to be and now, adjusted for overall market price changes with comparable altcoins.
Drumroll please...
Using that method of valuation gives XCP an overall valuation of about $20 million or $7.5 per XCP, which is .009 BTC.
Above numbers are very rough, just ballparking figures of ~$70 mil mastercoin marketcap down to $46 million, but the overall market is a bit lower than when we saw $70 million mastercoin marketcap.
So both methods end up at around the same price. This is why I was comfortable if the first trades happened at that price. I think there was over 5 BTC that has traded at 0.01 BTC. From here the price is up to the market, but at least there is a sane reference point.
Do not listen to anybody that says that you don't deserve to make an instant 1000% gain. The same was said about NXT. As people kept complaining, the price kept going up. The XCP devs have given us all a gift! If somebody gave you a $10 bill for every dollar bill you burned, what price should you sell the $10 bill for?
What obligation do we have to sell a $10 bill for anything less than $10?
Now if you are the sensitive type, be ready for trolls to start calling you names, but the fact is we all took a plunge into the unknown. We still don't know what will happen (well OK we actually do, but we can pretend we don't know the devs will fix all the bugs, clients will come out, Mac will be supported, etc). I estimate the available supply of XCP to be pretty low. Maybe the guy that burned 60 BTC right at the end will sell 10 BTC to recoup his capital with a little cushion, but most people have 1500 XCP or less.
It will be nice to cash out and make thousands of dollars in less than a month, but it wont be life changing.
Let's project a nice high end scenario. XCP dev team get all the required software out. Then they start adding a bunch of new features. XCP gets onto coinmarketcap top 10. Its trading on btc-e.com. It gets millions of dollars of free press from the crazy ~$2 million proof of burn. Many XCP oriented projects start and an entirely new betting ecosystem develops. The same happens with the dividend ability.
Compare that to what LTC brings to the table.
James