The question isn't whether or not a feed operator could screw people over for money. The question is whether or not he would make more money by being honest. A good reputation will be very valuable, as it is on the Silk Road.
'certainly not the only one.
Sure an honest feeder will make more money as time pass, reputation increase, ++money as bet rise higher.
So thousands of people will want to become feeder.
Random guy must choose randomly which feed chose, or after 2 month, choosing the one with the best reputation (discovered through hard research, nothing easy).
Might work for let's say 5 honest guy.
Creating a tiny feeder elite.
Yet if bet start to be REALLY huge, at one moment one of the top 5 have a choice:
A: continue to be honest, I already made x$, if I continue in 2 month I might have 2x!
B: months of time spent to build a reputation (hard to find), made y$ in 6 month. Do I wait 4 month more, playing nice, to perhaps reach 2y$ ? or do I screw them all and take 16y$ now?
Supposedly 16y$ = 1'000'000$, temptation is huge
He could make more, but 'need +1yr and result is uncertain. As is BTC&XCP value as time pass.
Big Big now? or moderately great over very long time? 'arrive one point for many...
Tony had a very good reputation on SR I heard...
Agree with your point.
However, centralized feeds seem to be the only workable option right now. Protoshares has proposed an alternative model, based on bid/ask prices for their BitUSD, however that model seems a little bit naive to me. That just because we call something BitUSD, the price of that will track the USD.
If you have an alternative model, please feel free to propose it.