I hope your analysis about Stellar are right but at this moment stellar looks very weak and everyone is dumping XLM. The team should come up with some announcement to regain the trust of the holders. I don't know how far this dumping will go
The only hope for the stellar is that SEC does not come after them as they are also a "Security". If the stellar survives this (which i think is difficult), then we can see a big pump in its prices in alt season but on the other hand XLM will be RIP after XRP.
XLM and XRP are exactly the same technology. There's no logic that one is the "security" and other is not. XRP guys will cry foul if XLM is not delisted as XRP, and they will right.