Topic: Another Coup in Africa: What is the economic effect? - page 5. (Read 883 times)

Dictators who have been ruling with an iron fist for many decades are being overthrown in countries such as Niger and Gabon. Only positives can come out of all this. Omar Bongo was one of the worst rulers in Africa. Despite the huge petroleum deserves in Gabon, the country was in deep poverty because Bongo stole all that wealth and used it to purchase luxury villas and other real estate in France. From what I have seen, people have come out in support of the new regime. The same is happening in Niger as well. Popular support is with the new leaders.

Crap!

This is a very selfish thing to say. Really, I don't know what grounds you have to say this shit. They provided jobs for millions of people and leave millions of people to starve, to suffer. Infact the West invading Africa has got to be worst thing that ever happened in all of Africa.
If they want those materials, then they should come correct and do things the right way just as it should be.

Now France spokes man recently disapproved the coup and calls it a bad coup. That's because a coup runned and benefits leading to the French is a good coup bit that which ends the stealing and control on natural resources and as well benefits the inhabitants of the country is a bad coup? Crazy you know. The french can cry premium tears as they want, currently, no going back.

Looking back on how they've killed millions of lives with Algeria and Congo just to get what they want, it's the perfect time to see all these happening, how can a ruling body be in power for over thirty years? It was getting to be a family business. These leaders in power are being controlled by colonial masters and if you fail to comply, you end up six feat below the group with a terrible news displaying you was a corrupt leader. ( Call Me Stupid All I Know Is That, The West and French are Nefarious Bastards! )

I work on contract in a lot of African countries and I know how some of them operate. The leaders in the country and their family and friends are making millions from back room deals and large tender kickbacks .....and the rest of the citizens suffer.

The leaders stay in power to protect that privileged life and the wealth and power that come with that. The citizens blame the "West" and "colonization" for this, but they vote for these leaders. (Some elections are rigged and fear and intimidation are used to force people to vote for these leaders)

What would have happened if the "West" did not entered these countries and not provided jobs for millions of people? Would they have had the latest technologies (Cars / cellphones / TVs .....) if the developed countries did not use those raw minerals?

It is sad to see all that suffering and how the citizens are exploited by their own leaders. 

Yes, I agree with you, with that GDP Gap will have no effect on France and the world economy. Maybe a different case when Gabon is the importing country, because if the country is an importer and have a connection with another country, there will be affected with the relation and maybe will have the same experience. But, if I saw all this time nothing happened so far, the world will be fine if countries in Africa have the same problem.

Countries that depended heavily on them and were exploiting them will be directly affected by the coup because the military that has taken over will not want to continue with any agreement that they may have had with the ousted government. If it was raw materials, there will be shortages, if it was food export, there will be shortage too.

For you, the countries usually taken over by a coup often issue a no-flight zone (NFZ) on their airspace, so as a person who is travelling by air and  may have to travel pass their airspace, flights may be redirected and perhaps flight fees will increase, so you spend more.

Analyzing this situation carefully, Gabon having the largest manganese mine in existence... It would cause the suspension of mining operations due to the coup could interrupt the world supply of this material. This disruption could affect global supply chains and potentially increase the prices of these products.

On the other hand, coups and political instability in the region may raise concerns about the security of investments and assets in these countries, which means that investors and companies may reassess their participation in the region due to the risks associated with political volatility and changes in government. In addition, foreign direct investment and trade cooperation in the region could be hindered, which in turn could affect long-term economic growth.... My only thought is that overall, the direct impact may be more limited due to because Gabon and other former colonies are relatively small in the global economy.

Sincerely, it is still unclear why the sudden rise of coup in an oil rich country like Gabon.  Other African countries have their problems already, but the reason for this happen to be the long tenure of the head of state.

If you follow up on the news , you will notice how joyous the citizens are, meaning they gave consent and are okay with the result.
Cameroon also has a long sitting head of state who infact resides in France from where he rules. Let's not pray the military rises up and holds a coup too.

The impact of this coup on the economy is the fact that international aids and relief packages from a country like America, some foreign ties will be severed and some investors will have to cease operations in the region. Also, the said pipe line that was to go through the region may have to pause too.
In such situations is where such countries adopt the BRICS currency to trade internationally and export as well as import products seamlessly.

I think too much is being put on the external companies that are working in the Africa. First of all African doesn’t have proper infrastructure from the local government to do the job by themselves. Why there are hundreds of companies from outside the African continent and Africa themselves isn’t doing anything about it? I mean imagine how much money they could have earned by themselves if they started to export it to the world rather just getting taxes paid from the external forces?

Why I am mentioning all of this is because they are literally tangled up with the family presidency and they are putting everything down the line to make it right or wrong?

If you have resources then use it, why does it even matter who’s running the nation if they can create a democratic decisions about it someone need to step in or its going down the sink.

The answer is simple. Look for who benefits.

Earlier I wrote about an unexpected "series" of coups in the belt that "crosses" the prospective project of gas supply to the EU.



Gabon is also in close proximity, which could become the center of "coup exports".

The second problem is natural reserves of oil, gas, manganese and uranium ore. Again, the question is who is now trying to "coshmarize" the hydrocarbon and uranium market again ? I am sure that soon there will be "rebels" running around with flags of one distant country

Or do you want to say that the population of Gabon, which as of 2023 is one of the richest countries in Africa with the fourth largest GDP per capita, has decided that everything is bad ?

It's hard to make any assumptions on these cases involving the social and economical instability in african countries, because we have little informations about it in our native countries, besides having only speculations from both sides (the government and the rebels) which we can't really trust.

The point is, can't the african country itself explore the minerals plus other natural resources and instead of selling it cheap on its raw format, rather manufacturing it into something more valuable and only then exporting to the rest of the world? Why do african nations need european countries to manufacture their raw materials?

And actually, to replace the french company by another foreigner company doesn't seem the solution for the problem... They are just going to be explored by a different group of people.

Indeed, the history of Military coups has shown that their implications are significant for the people in which country they occur, and also for global community. The leadership of such coups often assert their aim to reestablish law, political order and stability. The aftermath typically brings about heightened instability, curtailment of civil rights and violations of human rights.

African continent has specially experienced prolonged history of  such military coups. As a result, despite ample natural resources across Africa, the general public often lives in dire circumstances.

The economic effects of such coups are devastating, not only for the country itself, but also for the region.

Suspension of bilateral and multilateral business agreements are incumbent to happen in the event of a coup taken place in a democratic society and to any coup junta's they are conscious of this actions from international bodies against their action. But what needs to be done needs to be done not minding sanctions that may follow thereafter.

What the outside are pretending not to comprehend is that modern democracies is not doing the African states any better buy rather the leaders are abusing the democratic process and institutions to propagate suffering even in the midst of plenty (a country that has oil wealth that can be used to develop her economy still nothing tangle to show off in the standard of living of the citizens).

IMO let a people be allowed to choose a system of government that's favourable to them through a referendum and if you ask me I think the people of Gabon are completely tired of the family rule of over 5 decades now.

This coup was staged by senior members of the military who had grown tired of being ruled by a leader whose family has held power for over 56 years since gaining independence from the French in 1960..I'm sure the whole thing wouldn't have escalated to this point if these leaders had let those who won fairly rule but rather as a result of election malpractice had managed to the circle it back to themselves.
Gabon is an oil rich country and have contributed immensely to it's per Capita GDP and this is made possible due to its small population of 2.2m.
 This move by the military will surely stiffen growth and it's dollar denominated bonds have seen a downward slide as a result of this. Another major blow this can cause them if ever the coup becomes successful is that it will force investors to look the other way; also multi and bilateral lenders could change or suspend lending in response to the coup.

There will certainly be some effect, but not only because of Gabon, but because of everything that is happening in other African countries where the interests of the West and the East are in conflict. It seems to me that what is happening right now is directly related to Russia's influence in these countries and it is in some way a continuation of the war in the sense that Russia wants to take revenge for the support that the US and the EU provide to Ukraine.

If we take into account the history of European colonization and exploitation of Africa as a continent, which continued in modern times, then we should not be surprised that some of the African countries openly showed their support for Russia, and just a few days before his death, the boss of Wagner posed with a group of excited people who wanted a selfie with him.

I read a headline on the internet referring to Ali Bongo Ondimba as Gabon life president. Ali bongo has been the third president of Gabon since they were independent in 1960 and he came to office in 2009 which means he has been in office for 14 years while they are in a democratic government. Seat tight syndrome is one factor affecting the African governance system and until a democratic government becomes democratic indeed then this revolution that is gradually sweeping the shores of the west African will not abate.

Apart from the natural resources in situ in Africa soil, the leadership is very much rotten and that is why they allow neocolonialism in their midst. It is unfortunate or fortunate that all the countries that have witnessed these coups, the people are in support of the military which is a signal that the people don't feel the presence of the government because they are not those genuinely elected but were forced in or rigged their way in.

Op what you said is not far from the truth. I strongly agreed with you points. I heard the news in this morning as well, and I was wondering who is next and I am praying strongly to God that let it happen in Nigeria. According to hose who has witnessed military government or regime, the worst democratic government is better than the best military regime. In this modern days I don't think so again. The way the civilian governments are doing in the African countries are getting out of hand. And one thing you said that captivate my attention was the you said, other world powers are sponsoring these coup so that they will take over the territories, and I believed that is sure, there is a fowl play here in these coups.

And another thing that makes the military to take power is the bad leadership, there is no way a president of a country is doing well and a military personnels will just come and take over power. Even the ordinary jubilation of the citizens will tell you that the civilian governments were not doing well. Like now if military take over power in Nigeria, personally I will jubilate, even though things will not come down again I will jubilate.

The problem we are facing in these continent is the interference of the colonial masters in the African economy. And what is happening right is the manifestation of the neocolonialism.

The argument probably has a lot of truth to it. France is still the power it is today because of its relationship with Françafrique, where despite having accepted independence and emerged from former African colonies, the relationship since independence has often been labelled as neo-colonialism in which France exerts its influence over local leaders and profits from it.

Although I see the effect of this particular Coup on the global economy as very limited. Gabon GDP is 20 billion USD while that of France is almost 3 trillion.

Honestly, this was something I was afraid could happen in other African countries after what happened in Niger.
Beyond the political implications and the relationship between these countries and France, allow me to put on the table some personal theory I have.

All these countries which have been under the influence of France and part of the French industry counts on could affect the development of France when comes to generation and transmission of non-fossil energy. France is a country which is famous in Europe for their outstanding developing on nuclear reactors, unlike other countries like Denmark and Germany.

If France losses access to Uranium from Africa and other developing countries, we could argue that a higher dependence on oil and gas could ensue, which would be convenient for gas and oil producers, like Russia and the OPEC.

Very sad to see African democracy being this eaten away, to be honest. As if that continent had not suffer enough from autocrats...

The assertion of these observers may not be entirely true it could be that the citizens are way tired of a monotonous passage rulership from father to son in the disguise of democracy which has for years undermined the development of the local economy with a rising inflation and are just seeking for a total change of governance so policies can work different for different outcomes. You can't keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result.

France is not the only entity guilty of this charge it's a behaviour of all the colonial order in the  African continent. The view is that it's a raw material ground and a market for their finished goods and that's why we till date after many decades  granting independence to all these colonies they still suffer from the development of  underdevelopment. The relationship is not mutual.

External force or not I strong advise that these colonial powers should look inwardly and accept the errors they have made and still making till date in an imperialistic aspect. No people will revolt against a system that is promoting self attainment and robust economic development. So the question is was the economy of these coupist countries like Mali, Niger and now Gabon doing great before the coup?
I wouldn't be surprised it starts raining sanctions upon sanctions from the Western bloc, European bloc and the AU on the economy of Gabon in the coming days.

It's only natural that they prioritize their own interest first so no surprise if they're actually exploiting the natural resources there.

If they employ mostly locals there and pay taxes too then these companies probably help a little in their economy. The problem is we don't have the full details of the mining deals and we'll probably never know.

Highly unlikely but who knows? The French President has been very vocal about his stance against US influence in Europe so maybe there's a connection.

We'll have to wait and see what they do from here. I'm pretty sure they won't hoard all the Manganese there.