I thought an actual side bet might lend a little credibility to your assertion. I don't trade as a rule, but I do gamble every now and again for fun. I think one of us has it the right way round
If we bet, then £50, converted into Bitcoin at 00:00 1st March 2014.
I am currently long Bitcoin and won't be short for quite some time since Bitfinex have removed my ability to place stops on an exchange I trust (Bitstamp), leaving me to trade solely on an exchange I don't trust (Bitfinex). These fuckers have robbed me for the last time after a short sell I made at practically the top of that spike got called after a big sell wall that my stop order was hiding behind, vanished.
I am as of yet undecided what Bitcoin is going to do around the next corner. But since long term indicators as per the 4 hour charts all suggest more downside, regardless of any short term uptime, I will take that bet right now if you wish. If I lose, I will definitely stump up, but I do work offshore and have no reliable timetable for when I will be around (and capable of BTC transaction) or not. I give you this warning in advance.
I think you are still stuck valuing BTC in fiat. I'm betting bitcoin because thats what I have, and I wish to speculate with it to gain more. You are asking me to take a bet where any strong move in my favour reduces my 'winnings' because I will get less than the 0.1BTC that I originally wagered.
*That* sounds like a shitty bet to me.
You are already long BTC so you already have 0.1BTC to spare I am sure. I am long BTC so I have 0.1BTC to spare.
The only significance of the $price, is that is what decides the outcome. If you choose to buy/sell the 0.1BTC at the exact moment the bet ends then yes it is worth whatever the prevailing rate is. However I am not planning on doing that. I am just interested in trying to double up on little bit of my stash.
So invent all the stories you want about me trying to scam you, I suppose I am just the same as everyone else that is out to get you at the moment. You should see a doc about that.
One last time I'll explain how you make it worth your while. If you are truly convinced it is going down, then sell 0.1BTC right now. Then when it goes below $750 and I send you 0.1BTC you are $81 up (stamp price 818 right now) and you have the same number of BTC as you did before. You just succesfully shorted BTC for $$$PROFIT.
I'm always banking on BTC rising, this bet is no exception. I'm simply "buying" BTC with BTC, because I don't have fiat on any exchange.
I'm effectively leveraging 0.1BTC at x2 and my margin call is at $750