Topic: Another MatTheCat Near Term Price Prediction. - page 2. (Read 4621 times)

higher commission (for low volume or non intraday traders), and bitfinex requires no docs for accounts with no fiat (bank) transactions, i believe.

Why not (what a novel idea!) trade on stamp directly?

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/announcements

I know nothing about them, and that is exactly the point.

Their contact page tells me basically nothing.

If I feel like I have no recourse should they vanish with my money, I'm probably not going to be doing business with them.

Why not?

What do you know about them?

I mean, I think that anyone placing orders, and especially stop loss orders on Bitfinex is liable to get their ass run over by a combine harvester, but when I could route Bitfinex trades through Bitstamp I generally had a good experience on there.

Is this another likely vanishing with everyone's USD and BTC exchange?

You couldn't pay me to send Bitfinex any amount of bitcoin or dollars.

As confident as I am about Bitcoin (being a "Bitcoin nutter" and whatnot), I've experienced a decent amount of fear in the past three years. I realize how much risk is involved in a project this disruptive. Although, the risk continues to reduce as time marches on.

The trick is determining which fear is rational and which fear is irrational.

Are you afraid of that high speed locomotive or are you afraid of the boogie man?

So far, most fear related to Bitcoin has been of the boogie man kind. It's odd, the one event which truly frightened me (the temporary fork) had almost no impact on the exchange rate.

Once you learn that the market actually reacts to these boogie men, you can probably make some wildly successful trades. I sometimes "make calls" to myself even though I don't trust any of the exchanges to actually go through with them. My last two calls were to sell on the silk road news, and sell on the China news. Both times I was in a position to react before the exchange rate moved. I could have made a fair amount of money (more bitcoins) in both situations. Hindsight is, of course, 20/20.

If we bet, then £50, converted into Bitcoin at 00:00 1st March 2014.

I am currently long Bitcoin and won't be short for quite some time since Bitfinex have removed my ability to place stops on an exchange I trust (Bitstamp), leaving me to trade solely on an exchange I don't trust (Bitfinex). These fuckers have robbed me for the last time after a short sell I made at practically the top of that spike got called after a big sell wall that my stop order was hiding behind, vanished.

I am as of yet undecided what Bitcoin is going to do around the next corner. But since long term indicators as per the 4 hour charts all suggest more downside, regardless of any short term uptime, I will take that bet right now if you wish. If I lose, I will definitely stump up, but I do work offshore and have no reliable timetable for when I will be around (and capable of BTC transaction) or not. I give you this warning in advance.

Unless of course you actually read the post where I explained how you would be mug not to take this bet if you actually believed it was going below $750. You could sell your 0.1BTC right now, then as soon as it does dip below 750 you get your 0.1BTC back. You know how shorting works though right

Your theoretical unfairness only applies if you think its going up astronomically. If you *do* think its going up Buy 0.1BTC now to hedge against that happening. (then you are only "paying out" what you bought the BTC for).

This is a golden opportunity to short! You get all of feb, there is no capital outlay, there is no chance of a margin call, and you can hedge (if you wish, either at todays price or set a limit order on bitstamp for $750 that way you'll be guaranteed $75 for your winnings if its fiat thats important to you). I'm starting to think trading is the wrong game for you if you can't see how all this works!

Of course if you *do* think its going up then sure, don't take the bet.

Just remember you are the one starting threads around here saying its going down. Telling everyone how much you are shorting etc. Here's your chance to take that trade virtually risk free.

I thought an actual side bet might lend a little credibility to your assertion. I don't trade as a rule, but I do gamble every now and again for fun. I think one of us has it the right way round

Fear is a valuable instinct.

It prevents me from doing things like jumping in front of trains.

I will never ignore my fears, especially not if they are subconscious fears that come a knocking in my dreams. That means that my subconscious mind is scared of something that my conscious mind is either not scared off or is unaware off.

Well, I'm sorry MatTheCat, but until you learn to let go of your fear, you will not reach your potential.



 (kudos on last 2 near term predictions btw)

Intersango

500 GBP

It is currently just 11GBP there so I win!

(the bet was that Bitcoin holds up above $750 for the rest of Feb, Bitstamp until I realised that it was a skewed bet which sgbett knew of course to begin with)

Dude, it was a bad bet, everyone knew it was a bad bet as soon as you said it. If you choose not to pay out, who cares? (except sgbett, and I suspect he cares very little) If you can't sleep at night holding a long position in btc, and yet you can sleep well at night knowing that you have refused to pay out a contract in btc, then we will simply continue to agree to disagree.




but seriously dude? 500? really? on what exchange?

This is perhaps the best thing I've read in months. Thank you.

See to me sideways in the bitcoin world is actually down.

So when I see sideways, on low volume, thats bullish to me.

YMMV

Lots of times! and its always fun to speculate

I had a dream it was back up over $1000 last night. Dreams are funny!

Christ on a Bike.

How many times on this descending triangle could a bulltard have drawn these arbitrary trend lines only for them to be broken on bullshit nothing volume only for the market to then sink back down to the $765 support?



And how many times have we breached that all important $765 high volume support and what does it mean 9/10 times when such a scenario arises?

Doesn't mean there isn't going to be upside opportunities and I hope there is upside opportunities because since Bitfinex have stopped allowing orders to be routed through Bitstamp, I have no place that I trust to make short trades, therefore, I am now a part time bull, or rather, a bear looking for bullish opportunities, but I know two things.

I wake up from my sleep when I have long Bitcoin trades on, due to spooked out Bitcoin dreams.

The prevailing technicals are all pointing down the way.

mi nombre es proudyuan, i come to post of dos Latin Americas. in dos Latin Americas, much fear was spread by FUD y rumor of China ban on 31-Jan. Now es clear no such bad events will occur, so price rise es happening because average emotion based traders are jumping back in as they see las ship sailing and price rising. es not big whales causing price rise but many small fish swimming together, es good hombres. gracias

What?

I saw the spike in price that I predicted in this thread, the thread which I started predicting a spike to 825-835 range, which has now happened....

.....and now that my prediction has come to pass, I am running scared, is that what you are saying  

Spastic!

In other words, you saw the spike in price and now want to call off the bet.