Topic: Antminer S3 - Profit is Impossible - page 3. (Read 20062 times)

These discussions usually devolve into this kind of argument. It all depends on your assumptions you make. And while you can claim to want to exclude the BTC/dollar (yes USA centric), you can entirely the reason you can't is that I am not aware of a single electric company that will quote you a stable rate in BTC, it's always in dollar. You then have to make assumptions about the difficulty increases, or decreases along the way. Finally you have to make an assumption about the residual value of the mining hardware. It quite easy to pick values that show a profit (in BTC), and those that show a loss (in BTC). All of you can be right, and all can be wrong, all at the same time.

If I assume 20% difficulty jumps, and pay $.50/Kwh, and zero residual value, then I lose for sure. If I assume 2% jumps, $.05/KWh, and 50% residual (in BTC), then profit is assured. Neither of these set of assumptions match my reality, and don't likely match your either. Both however are possible, although not likely.

No it isn't.  I can read quite well thank you.  Perhaps one day you will join us, but I fear not.
Instead of trying (badly at that) to insult me, why don't you point out for me a single thing that I've said that is incorrect.

That is all.

This thread is not about any of those devices and what you can/cannot do with them.  It is about the S3.  If you would like I can run the math with the specific cost of an S3 and show the same result, which will reach the same conclusion.  Profit with an S3 is NOT impossible.  That is what the OP stated as if it were fact, that is what is wrong, that is what the focus should be on.

Learn to read.  That is all.

LOL...I'm afraid you are confusing me with ummm....YOU.  There is nothing wrong my any of my math.  If you can't understand it I suggest you find a tutor.  Maybe they can help with your anger management as well.

The very nature of this thread is antagonistic.  What I am addressing is the inaccuracy of the fundamental thought being portrayed here, that profiting from the purchase of an S3 is "impossible".  It is NOT impossible.  I have simply tried to show the flaws, where I see them, in some of the things people, yourself included, have posted in the thread.
If you would like to take some specific piece of information and warp it until it fits your belief that's fine with me but please do not include hard math in your emotional outbursts.  It is shining a light on you that is very unflattering.

So you're finding the magical miner that makes more BTC than it's initial outlay.  Not one BFL device did that.  Not one Cointerra.  Not one Hashfast.  Not one Black Arrow.  None of the Avalon B3s.

THe first 2 Avalons, the first KNC Jups, and the first S1s did this.

Dragon, Rockminer, SP30s won't.

Good luck.

The post I quoted was specifically talking about a scenario where you  pay 0.75BTC for a miner, having it mine 0.375BTC, and somehow that is still a profit.  So basically, not only can you not do math, you can't read either. 
No wonder people think miners are stupid, they have to deal with ignorance like this all the time.

I thin it's YOU who is trolling...

BTC @ $600(USD) I Buy 1 coin
BTC @ $600(USD) I buy mining equipment for 1 coin

BTC @ $550(USD) My one coin is worth $550
BTC @ $550(USD) My mined amount can go OVER $550 because I can mine 1+BTC with it.

Are you so obtuse or ignorant that you cannot understand something this simple?

There's a hidden variable here though.   If 1000 or 10000 people decide the same thing (purchase BTC direct rather than mine it), then the
additional purchase pressure makes the exchange rate less likely to go down. (and more likely, up)

The attractiveness of mining now is partly getting BTC from the pool of newly minted coin every day, rather than on an exchange, where
you are opening yourself up to unknown fraud potential, KYC rules, and possibly enriching an early adopter by purchasing their old coin,
or otherwise contributing to the demand side.   

The thing that baffles me though is that the upside is completely capped by the size of the initial investment.   Because of rising difficulty,
all mining investments become trickle income in a few months.   It's like congratulating yourself for buying a share in Apple at $100 (pre
split) and watching it grow to $700.    You only realize the $600 profit if you sell it, and you only have one to sell.   Once that's done, you're
out of the game.   People who purchased a miner and used it for a few months are partial BTC owners, they are not on the path to
the "new wealthy elite".    The logical thing at that point is to turn off that miner and move on.   It is not logical to decide that they need to
10x the size of their initial investment just to stay in the game.

Once the initial miners decide to get out, the hardware will go on the open market at blow out prices, there will be purchasers for those
who will make new ROI decisions on old hardware at trickle income rates. 

Purchase miner for 0.75BTC.  Mine 0.375BTC.  BTC goes down to say $100.  You have 0.375BTC worth $37.50.
Don't purchase miner, keep the .75BTC.  BTC goes down to say $100.  You have 0.75BTC worth $75.00.

No matter what happens with the exchange rate of BTC or whether it goes up or down, 0.75BTC is always more than 0.375. 
At this point I simply refuse to believe that anyone can be this obtuse or ignorant.  You must be trolling. 

No, I didn't see that when I replied.  I was speaking strictly in terms of what makes you the most money.  If you enjoy mining then of course you might purchase a miner even knowing that it will lose you money/

What if the coin goes DOWN?

Can you profit buying the coin (shorting BTC is very difficult from what I understand) if the exchange rate drops?  A miner can.

Did you see the part where I said, "However, it is certainly true that you could skip the whole mining process and simply buy 0.75 BTC instead.  But that's less fun."?  (Although I will grant you that I added this to my original comment a minute or two after I posted the first part, so you may not have seen it before you started writing your comment.)

I like my BTC toys.

Save you the trouble, buy the 0.75 BTC with $450 and then sell it when it hit $1200. You now have $900.

I don't know how easier to explain it to you.  .75BTC is .75BTC, it makes no difference whether you bought it on an exchange, "converted" it as you say, mined it, stole it, scammed it from someone in the lending section, whatever.  If you purchase this miner for .75BTC and then it mines .375BTC, you just lost .375BTC.  Meanwhile, the person who didn't purchase this miner still has .75BTC.  BTC increasing to $1200 has nothing to do with it you lost 0.375BTC.  If you absolutely insist on thinking in terms of dollars, than the person who didn't purchase the miner now has $900.  You should have $900 too but because you bought the miner instead of keeping the .75BTC, you now only have $450.  You didn't break even.  You mined $450 worth of bitcoin but spent $900 worth of bitcoin to get it. 

I'm not going to keep beating a dead horse.  If you can't understand the simple, intuitively obvious concept that 0.75BTC is always more than 0.375BTC no matter what the fiat exchange rate is, than I don't really know what else to say on the matter.

If you just buy with BTC, then yes.  But if you buy with converted fiat, it would be a lot easier to make a profit.  For example, if the USD exchange rate is 600 right now, you could buy a 0.75 BTC miner for $450.  If BTC goes up to $1200 each, then you only need to mine 0.375 BTC to break even in fiat terms (ignoring potential power supply and power costs).

However, it is certainly true that you could skip the whole mining process and simply buy 0.75 BTC instead.  But that's less fun.

Why do people keep saying this?  What does the exchange ratio have to do with it?  If you purchase a device for .75BTC it either mines more than .75BTC or it mines less than .75BTC.  If it ends up mining less than .75BTC you lost money, regardless of the relative exchange rates.  This should be intuitively obvious. 

All that calculators are for them who will withdraw their just-mined coins and axchange it to "usual money". You missed that BTC exchange ratio should and will inevitably grow. That's all.  

If you keep them and mine with them, yes.

I don't know if it's still true or not, but people used to offer above the already bloated retail value to buy ASICs "in hand".

and most people talking about mining with their ASICs aren't people that have been on this board for more than a year or two