Antminer S3 - Profit is Impossible - page 4.

googlemaster1

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Quote from: Searing on July 06, 2014, 01:32:13 AM

Quote from: mikerbiker6 on July 02, 2014, 03:33:06 PM

the reason these miners are sold so quickly is because of new miners. Every new miner heard of the succes of the s1 and when they hear the new s3 is announced they immediately jump in. As you said, no rational miner will buy this.

yep all newbies buy equip ....(heh me to) I got a knc jupter july 1st 2013 had no problem with 7131.80 usd for the miner..shoulda just got btc instead heh
got 50 btc out of the jupiter eol likely woulda had like 80 if just got btc

a newbie tradition heh

Searing

Really mining should only be a small portion of your investment if you are really bullish. I use mining to hedge, really. And it makes the MOST sense to get into mining now for that reason because we are getting to the top end of what is possible with current hardware. A few terrahashes never hurt nobody!

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: TheJuice on July 06, 2014, 06:50:46 AM

Ummm, haven't we learned anything in bitcoin mining? Never say never.

The diff adjustment this next block will be 2%. In 2 months at that rate you break even.

You got that right! The more I learn about BTC the less I know!

conundrum

Searing

TheJuice

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Ummm, haven't we learned anything in bitcoin mining? Never say never.

The diff adjustment this next block will be 2%. In 2 months at that rate you break even.

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: mikerbiker6 on July 02, 2014, 03:33:06 PM

the reason these miners are sold so quickly is because of new miners. Every new miner heard of the succes of the s1 and when they hear the new s3 is announced they immediately jump in. As you said, no rational miner will buy this.

yep all newbies buy equip ....(heh me to) I got a knc jupter july 1st 2013 had no problem with 7131.80 usd for the miner..shoulda just got btc instead heh
got 50 btc out of the jupiter eol likely woulda had like 80 if just got btc

a newbie tradition heh

Searing

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Quote from: ALToids on July 05, 2014, 03:41:25 PM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 05, 2014, 04:21:43 AM

As long as BTC goes up, you can certainly make a profit. You just have to buy with fiat (i.e., either convert fiat to BTC and buy antminers, or buy antminers and then buy back the BTC with fiat). If you just buy with BTC you already have, it will be difficult.

That's not really making a profit. That's gaining more fiat based on the exchange rate.

You need to compare how much BTC the miner costs currently as opposed to how much the miner can mine during it's useful life. Almost every miner will currently return a loss.

As I stated in a more round-about fashion, comparing strictly in terms of BTC, making a profit would be difficult. So we agree there. But how is gaining more fiat not making a profit?

iglasses

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Google your right. Please accept my most sincere apology. Potential miners....please be advised I am known to ingest copious amounts of alcohol and cannot be trusted.

Ig

googlemaster1

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Quote from: iglasses on July 05, 2014, 06:25:38 PM

Here is why I disagree...

round one
@ 18g
495Ghs
.1656 (.0138 per day)

round two
15% increase to 20.7
.144 (.0120 per day)

round three
15% increase to 23.8
.126 (.0105 per day)

round four
15% increase to 27.4
.1092 (.0091 per day)

round five
15% increase to 31.6
.0948 (.0079 per day)

round six
15% increase to 36.4
.0816 (.0068 per day)

round seven
15% increase to 41.86
.072 (.0060 per day)

.7932 after 84 days (2.8 months)

If you look at the last ten difficulty increases they average out to 16%. If you add the next one which is likely to be 7-8% it comes down to an average increase of 15%. The numbers above do not account for any hosting or electricity costs but for some of us these numbers do not exist. If I can break even in the amount of time above and then continue to run the miners for an additional 2-3 months and then liquidate it for ten cents on the dollar (.075BTC) why the hell would I NOT want to do it?

iglasses, don't be an asshole. You know these threads only exist to stop future miners from raising the difficulty so we can have more BTC for ourselves. WHY YOU GOTTA RUIN A GOOD THING BRO? Wink

iglasses

legendary

Activity: 1148

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Here is why I disagree...

round one
@ 18g
495Ghs
.1656 (.0138 per day)

round two
15% increase to 20.7
.144 (.0120 per day)

round three
15% increase to 23.8
.126 (.0105 per day)

round four
15% increase to 27.4
.1092 (.0091 per day)

round five
15% increase to 31.6
.0948 (.0079 per day)

round six
15% increase to 36.4
.0816 (.0068 per day)

round seven
15% increase to 41.86
.072 (.0060 per day)

.7932 after 84 days (2.8 months)

If you look at the last ten difficulty increases they average out to 16%. If you add the next one which is likely to be 7-8% it comes down to an average increase of 15%. The numbers above do not account for any hosting or electricity costs but for some of us these numbers do not exist. If I can break even in the amount of time above and then continue to run the miners for an additional 2-3 months and then liquidate it for ten cents on the dollar (.075BTC) why the hell would I NOT want to do it?

ALToids

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Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 05, 2014, 04:21:43 AM

As long as BTC goes up, you can certainly make a profit. You just have to buy with fiat (i.e., either convert fiat to BTC and buy antminers, or buy antminers and then buy back the BTC with fiat). If you just buy with BTC you already have, it will be difficult.

That's not really making a profit. That's gaining more fiat based on the exchange rate.

You need to compare how much BTC the miner costs currently as opposed to how much the miner can mine during it's useful life. Almost every miner will currently return a loss.

silvestar

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Quote from: bitcoinbelieve on July 03, 2014, 09:17:08 AM

In long terms, it will pay off. I'm not saying that each BTC will be worth $1 million but it could be more than couple grand.

You should consider the profit in btc instead of USD, as you could simply buy bitcoin now with your USD, expecting bitcoin price to be much higher.

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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As long as BTC goes up, you can certainly make a profit. You just have to buy with fiat (i.e., either convert fiat to BTC and buy antminers, or buy antminers and then buy back the BTC with fiat). If you just buy with BTC you already have, it will be difficult.

ThomasCrowne

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★☆★ 777Coin - The Exciting Bitco

Quote from: Bitcoin++ on July 02, 2014, 06:15:47 AM

A good calculator for mining:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

Play with these inputs and you'll realize that it's almost impossible ever to break even.

I managed to make a profit of 0.65 BTC only by using some very strong assumptions:

Price = 0.75 BTC (I.e. no VAT/customs, free PSU)
Electricity only $0.10/kWh
Only 10% difficulty increment

It implies that no EU resident will ever be able to make a profit. If you live in some parts of the US, you might profit marginally, but not worthwhile given the risk of hardware failure.

May someone explain their rationale for investing in Antminer S3? Maybe something I missed?

Nope...you pretty much hit the nail on the head. Even here in the states the likelihood of recovering your initial investment in hardware is slim to none. Plus, your also assuming 100% uptime. Rig's quit unexpectedly for a variety of reasons:
1.) Hardware issue(s) (failed fans, etc.)
2.) Internet connection lost
3.) Pool(s) going down (this can be largely mitigated by having secondary and tertiary pools but you still lose some hash power switching pools)

All and all mining isn't even a 0 sum game at this point. It's a guaranteed loss!

mikerbiker6

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they are selling crazy, batch 3 already!

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: DrG on July 03, 2014, 08:47:20 PM

...

Agreed that projections beyond 3 months are meaningless. Because nobody knows the true pipeline and capabilities of the whole ASIC scene. If people are ordering stuff more than 3 months ahead of time they are brave.

S3 and Neptune owners are being given a gift right now. It looks right now like there will be minimal increase. Then again BTCG, Bitminter and GHash have all had below average luck for the last few days. I don't know about DF. The thing I wonder is when those AM chips start getting put into use.

1.5 years ago I predicted that the difficulty would not pass 1 billion. Obviously I did not see BTC going to $1200 and didn't think people would preorder so much that they would lose money. I thought everybody buying miners would be able to work a calculator. How people still manage to place orders with BFL is mindblowing. So I was way off. People will do things that I cannot understand. So now, given people's current fervor and the recent rise in the price, I can see more orders being placed. People have just thrown caution to the wind.

Many people can work calculators..

They saw big run ups feb 2013- Apr 2013.. Then Sept 2013 - Dec 2013…

SO they say 640 now will go to 2000 or 3000 maybe 5000.

I think even some asic builders fall into that type thinking.

DrG

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Quote from: navigator on July 03, 2014, 09:18:45 AM

Quote from: DrG on July 03, 2014, 02:08:52 AM

Quote from: iglasses on July 02, 2014, 09:17:21 PM

It isn't and every one of you posting this is wrong.

I have bought batch one S3's
I will profit with them
If you can't I don't really know what to say.

S1 owners like phillip (see above) took a chance and got lucky due to KNC, BFL, BA and others delivering late. I have free electricity and I was still skeptical about ROI. Considering all that late stuff is now delivering, I'll make a 1BTC bet with you that your S3 won't ROI it's BTC costs. With the 25% jump this last period it's going to get nasty pretty quick.

Last difficulty increase was an overshoot. Manufacturers producing new hardware that was added to the network. All those miners are getting ready to ship out now. The miners will stay in transit or about 5- 7days so hashrate will sort of drop from that. When that hashrate is sold, it only changes hands and the network difficulty is unaffected. We are currently at a 0% increase for this cycle and there will be many more less than 10% increases coming soon.

Anyone who tries to predict difficulty outside of 3 months is always way off. If you used one of those mining calculators earlier this year it would have said we should be over 100 billion difficulty by now. Do I really need to screenshot one of these predictions so we can come back to it later?

Agreed that projections beyond 3 months are meaningless. Because nobody knows the true pipeline and capabilities of the whole ASIC scene. If people are ordering stuff more than 3 months ahead of time they are brave.

S3 and Neptune owners are being given a gift right now. It looks right now like there will be minimal increase. Then again BTCG, Bitminter and GHash have all had below average luck for the last few days. I don't know about DF. The thing I wonder is when those AM chips start getting put into use.

1.5 years ago I predicted that the difficulty would not pass 1 billion. Obviously I did not see BTC going to $1200 and didn't think people would preorder so much that they would lose money. I thought everybody buying miners would be able to work a calculator. How people still manage to place orders with BFL is mindblowing. So I was way off. People will do things that I cannot understand. So now, given people's current fervor and the recent rise in the price, I can see more orders being placed. People have just thrown caution to the wind.

DrG

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Quote from: mikerbiker6 on July 03, 2014, 08:29:06 AM

@DrG, KNC was just on time actually (Q1 or Q2).

Shipping 5 days before the end of Q2 is not really what most Neptune users were expecting. They were expecting KNC's own farm to exceed 5%. When they said Q1/Q2, most were thinking March, April, possibly May if bad, June worst case scenario.

It appears also that they didn't complete out their Batch 1 deliveries as promised.

Biodom

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How is this for a reason: If you don't mine, than your bitcoin is potentially worth nothing because someone might vote to change it in a way that you don't like.

everyone who has bitcoin should mine, but how much?

Easy to calculate:

M (minimal mining in Th/s)=F X P
where F is a a fraction that your bitcoin represents in 21000000
P-is the power of network in Th (currently ~120000)

F=Y/B
Y-bitcoins that you have
B=21000000

So, if you have 100 BTC, you need to mine (or hire someone to mine for you) at M=100/21000000 X 120000=0.57Th/s=570Gh/s
I is probably better to be ahead (mine more than minimal)
Essentially, if you have less than 30BTC, one antminer S1 or equivalent is OK
at 100BTC-3-4 antminers S1 or one antminer S1 and one antminer S3 is enough

navigator

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Activity: 362

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Quote from: DrG on July 03, 2014, 02:08:52 AM

Quote from: iglasses on July 02, 2014, 09:17:21 PM

It isn't and every one of you posting this is wrong.

I have bought batch one S3's
I will profit with them
If you can't I don't really know what to say.

S1 owners like phillip (see above) took a chance and got lucky due to KNC, BFL, BA and others delivering late. I have free electricity and I was still skeptical about ROI. Considering all that late stuff is now delivering, I'll make a 1BTC bet with you that your S3 won't ROI it's BTC costs. With the 25% jump this last period it's going to get nasty pretty quick.

Last difficulty increase was an overshoot. Manufacturers producing new hardware that was added to the network. All those miners are getting ready to ship out now. The miners will stay in transit or about 5- 7days so hashrate will sort of drop from that. When that hashrate is sold, it only changes hands and the network difficulty is unaffected. We are currently at a 0% increase for this cycle and there will be many more less than 10% increases coming soon.

Anyone who tries to predict difficulty outside of 3 months is always way off. If you used one of those mining calculators earlier this year it would have said we should be over 100 billion difficulty by now. Do I really need to screenshot one of these predictions so we can come back to it later?

bitcoinbelieve

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In long terms, it will pay off. I'm not saying that each BTC will be worth $1 million but it could be more than couple grand.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: DrG on July 03, 2014, 02:08:52 AM

Quote from: iglasses on July 02, 2014, 09:17:21 PM

It isn't and every one of you posting this is wrong.

I have bought batch one S3's
I will profit with them
If you can't I don't really know what to say.

S1 owners like phillip (see above) took a chance and got lucky due to KNC, BFL, BA and others delivering late. I have free electricity and I was still skeptical about ROI. Considering all that late stuff is now delivering, I'll make a 1BTC bet with you that your S3 won't ROI it's BTC costs. With the 25% jump this last period it's going to get nasty pretty quick.

Btc roi is really soooo hard to do. I no longer make bets but I would think that to get a s-3 to return its cost of .75btc is not going to happen for most of us.

USD roi is always possible. Now many say but if you purchased the 0.75btc and held it 1 year later that was a better profit.

Yes it is true that buying low and selling high may make more money. But I am a USA guy I follow USA rules.
Buying coins and holding them is passive investing as per USA tax law.
Buying a miner mining with it and then selling it on ebay involves up to three types of tax rules.

1) mining which is an active business
2) resale on ebay I have an active ebay store
3) holding the mined coins . which is about the same as buy and hold tax law wise.

Many forum members are fully underground. So they have different condtitions to consider then me.

Topic: Antminer S3 - Profit is Impossible - page 4. (Read 20094 times)