There is no correct answer to your question if I were to give my opinion because the fees will likely to go down if there will be less transactions that were being processed
and there will be less congestion in the mempool.
Those are the cases that can bring the bitcoin fees back to normal but if there will more transactions that keeps on coming and there will be more transactions that were being
congested in the mempool because of less transaction fees then there is no exact prediction if when will be the bitcoin mempool will stop being so congested. The only thing that
you can do as of now is to have a close monitoring about the bitcoin fees and just do your transaction once you can see that the fees are decreasing or it is in the level where you
can already afford the fees.
Topic: Any idea when the Bitcoin Mempool will stop being so congested? - page 4. (Read 1103 times)
October 31, 2020, 03:07:34 PM
October 31, 2020, 12:54:07 PM
I believe you don't truly understand, because if you truly did, you wouldn't be compaining in a way that is unconstructive.
Why are you taking it into a personal level if we make a claim that Bitcoin is centralized and not decentralized?
You might be a Bitcoin fan or love it the way it is but if you can't accept criticism that is your problem and not ours.
October 31, 2020, 04:02:12 AM
Or with that reply, are you simply trolling?
I think I understand how Bitcoin works very well, I don't need you to certify a degree for me to acknowledge my level of understanding of how Bitcoin works - I had a very simple question in this thread which was referring to the high fees and the mempool, and I saw no other thread about this in this forum, at least not recently - assuming most people are happy to pay high fees - but I'm not ... I took the initiative to ask "what's going on" and got some nice information here ... you seem to turn this into a personal attack.
I don't know you and I am not interested in knowing your opinion, if you have a minor issue with this thread you don't have to respond nor be an *** about it.
I believe you don't truly understand, because if you truly did, you wouldn't be compaining in a way that is unconstructive.
Bitcoin is slow, and inefficient because maintaining the network's censorship-resistance/decentralization - it's main value proposition, and making it scale out is HARD. The Core developers don't have the power to bend the laws of Physics.
Nope, there is no such decentralization... that is only twitter based brain wash args by core / Blockstream
Clean Bitcoin works with unlimited block size like a champ. Segwit, LN, ... whatever was just a brutal attack. Now ppl pay the price
October 31, 2020, 03:48:13 AM
Or with that reply, are you simply trolling?
I think I understand how Bitcoin works very well, I don't need you to certify a degree for me to acknowledge my level of understanding of how Bitcoin works - I had a very simple question in this thread which was referring to the high fees and the mempool, and I saw no other thread about this in this forum, at least not recently - assuming most people are happy to pay high fees - but I'm not ... I took the initiative to ask "what's going on" and got some nice information here ... you seem to turn this into a personal attack.
I don't know you and I am not interested in knowing your opinion, if you have a minor issue with this thread you don't have to respond nor be an *** about it.
I believe you don't truly understand, because if you truly did, you wouldn't be compaining in a way that is unconstructive.
Bitcoin is slow, and inefficient because maintaining the network's censorship-resistance/decentralization - it's main value proposition, and making it scale out is HARD. The Core developers don't have the power to bend the laws of Physics.
October 31, 2020, 02:27:45 AM
looking at the past 4 days of mempool in size (not in count) shows that there is still a slight growth in the size of the memepool seen on Johoe's tool. it indicates that we can't expect mempool "clearing" in the immediate future. but it also shows that the growth has been slowed down a little so the "clearing" shouldn't take that long.
additionally the bitcoin price rise has slowed down by becoming stable around $13500, if this continues we may initially see another spike (day traders may pull out and go to shitcoin pumping) and then the size shrinks. since we are close to weekend, it could contribute to it too.
Data was imported on 29 October 2020 (ends at block #654708), not recently but the plot shows time points at which mempool was clear sometimes in October. Whenever the p25 value of daily block size falls back to below 1 MB, mempool has chances to get clearer.additionally the bitcoin price rise has slowed down by becoming stable around $13500, if this continues we may initially see another spike (day traders may pull out and go to shitcoin pumping) and then the size shrinks. since we are close to weekend, it could contribute to it too.
I made a typo in plot title: The period is 01 Oct 2020 - 29 Oct 2020.
All-time and 2020 plots
October 31, 2020, 01:44:14 AM
looking at the past 4 days of mempool in size (not in count) shows that there is still a slight growth in the size of the memepool seen on Johoe's tool. it indicates that we can't expect mempool "clearing" in the immediate future. but it also shows that the growth has been slowed down a little so the "clearing" shouldn't take that long.
additionally the bitcoin price rise has slowed down by becoming stable around $13500, if this continues we may initially see another spike (day traders may pull out and go to shitcoin pumping) and then the size shrinks. since we are close to weekend, it could contribute to it too.
additionally the bitcoin price rise has slowed down by becoming stable around $13500, if this continues we may initially see another spike (day traders may pull out and go to shitcoin pumping) and then the size shrinks. since we are close to weekend, it could contribute to it too.
October 31, 2020, 01:22:25 AM
When the price will stabilize or even fall a little bit, there will be less trading activity, which is the primary contributor towards congestion/high fees. And no one can predict Bitcoin's price, maybe we are now going to witness more and more growth until a new ATH and the top of the bubble forms, or maybe we'll again experience some stagnation/stability.
What you should learn from this is that you should use the time when fees are low to consolidate your funds, move to SegWit addresses, withdraw funds from centralized services, so you'll have lower fees in times like these.
What you should learn from this is that you should use the time when fees are low to consolidate your funds, move to SegWit addresses, withdraw funds from centralized services, so you'll have lower fees in times like these.
October 30, 2020, 08:30:08 AM
The only thing i can tell you is that anybody who gives you a precise answer to your question is probably guessing...
There's no way of telling how long it'll take before we see <10sat/vbyte fees again... In 2018 the optimal fee was >10sat/vbyte for multiple months... This time it could be for a couple of days, a couple of weeks, a couple of months... Or even longer.
There's no way of telling how long it'll take before we see <10sat/vbyte fees again... In 2018 the optimal fee was >10sat/vbyte for multiple months... This time it could be for a couple of days, a couple of weeks, a couple of months... Or even longer.
I'm willing to bet that it's going to be somewhere 1-2 days after :
I'm not very sure how legit the following information is, but as far as I know, the mempool would be way less congested and tx fees would be so much cheaper if all of us turned to SegWit. I have checked the stats about how many % of the transactions are done without it and it was significant. A lot of people don't even have any idea of its existence. If I'm wrong, of course, someone please correct me. 
Yeah, segwit only has somewhere between 40-45% percent but that alone would not be enough for cases like this or for the future, imagine doubling usage, even with segwit it won't be possible, the solution is to move to a second layer, but that at this point seems ten times harder for new users than simply using bitcoin, and for most people out there even this is quite a hurdle.
October 30, 2020, 08:10:49 AM
The only thing we could do is to wait.
Sooner or later,the congested mempool will cause many traders to stop buying,thus reducing the demand for Bitcoins.The support for a price above 13K USD will drop,so the price will drop as well,due to the many traders starting to sell their BTC and cashing the profits.
When the BTC price goes below 10K,the Bitcoin Core blockchain will be free and transaction count will go down.This is just my suggestion.
Sooner or later,the congested mempool will cause many traders to stop buying,thus reducing the demand for Bitcoins.The support for a price above 13K USD will drop,so the price will drop as well,due to the many traders starting to sell their BTC and cashing the profits.
When the BTC price goes below 10K,the Bitcoin Core blockchain will be free and transaction count will go down.This is just my suggestion.
October 30, 2020, 07:48:36 AM
I'm not very sure how legit the following information is, but as far as I know, the mempool would be way less congested and tx fees would be so much cheaper if all of us turned to SegWit. I have checked the stats about how many % of the transactions are done without it and it was significant. A lot of people don't even have any idea of its existence. If I'm wrong, of course, someone please correct me.
October 30, 2020, 07:43:15 AM
It is partially true, witcher_sense. 
Greed and lack of knowledge then experience cause all of such.
Greed and lack of knowledge then experience cause all of such.
- Bitcoin total supply is fixed and I believe most of bitcoin investors know about that.
- It is interesting to see many people are misled by news that "Bitcoin is scarce (because of its finite supply)". Such news mostly are seeded repeatedly when whales manipulate the market.
- Lack of knowledge and experience force people to join fee race. Many people called them as bitcoin investors but don't know what is confirmation, what is txhash and I don't feel strange if those people give their bitcoin to exchanges to broadcast and charge high fees.
October 30, 2020, 07:34:43 AM
To my way of thinking, this problem of congestions in the bitcoin mempool has to do with the finitely scarce nature of bitcoin and the supply of and demand for it. Bitcoin is scarce in two senses: its total supply is strictly finite and the block size is limited in terms of space within it. Because its total supply is known and unchangeable, any increase in the demand (for whatever reason) will cause its price to grow. Market activity intensifies because equilibrium has been disturbed and that results in an increase in the number of transactions.
Due to the fact that bitcoin block is limited in size and delayed in time, any increased demand for bitcoin will also increase the demand for limited space of bitcoin block. People compete with each other to get their transactions included in the next block, because there is disbalance on the market, the demand for bitcoin is not yet satisfied. When equilibrium is finally found, the number of transactions will get back to normal and people will stop competing for block space. It will decrease transaction fees and clear congestions in the mempool.
Due to the fact that bitcoin block is limited in size and delayed in time, any increased demand for bitcoin will also increase the demand for limited space of bitcoin block. People compete with each other to get their transactions included in the next block, because there is disbalance on the market, the demand for bitcoin is not yet satisfied. When equilibrium is finally found, the number of transactions will get back to normal and people will stop competing for block space. It will decrease transaction fees and clear congestions in the mempool.
October 30, 2020, 07:22:04 AM
I am not over pessimistic but nothing is too bad like a catastrophe here and now.
- Institutional and weekend effects
- A bit stability of bitcoin next few days
- We can have better fee rate. It is my expectation but if it happens, people should move or consolidate their bitcoin when fee is cheaper before mid of November.
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,30d
October 30, 2020, 07:11:36 AM
We can't deny the fact that the number of users are going up with every passing year. This is a positive news, but it do have some disadvantages associated with it. One example is that the mempool size get enlarged beyond a tolerable limit, as there is an increase in the number of transactions per hour. The easiest way to resolve this is to increase the block size. But for that, we need unanimous decision from the community. But the community remains divided on this, and as long as there is no unity, the block size can't be increased.
October 30, 2020, 06:37:24 AM
When is it going to go down back to 2,000 - 4,000 ??
When everyone stops sending the transactions and shift to other coins 
.The transaction charges are high and it is really frustrating to wait for a much longer time for the coins to get confirmed especially when you need a confirmation in many gambling sites and now i am waiting for days to get a confirmation and missed a few matches to wage a bet and that really is frustrating but glad some zero confirmation sites are there as well.
October 30, 2020, 06:10:08 AM
Or with that reply, are you simply trolling?
Do you really think the thread was created for trolling purposes?!
YOU are the one who has an issue with this thread, I was wondering how come you have no troubles with other threads containing broken English, I can find an issue with every thread if I want to.
Seriously, what is your problem?
I think I understand how Bitcoin works very well, I don't need you to certify a degree for me to acknowledge my level of understanding of how Bitcoin works - I had a very simple question in this thread which was referring to the high fees and the mempool, and I saw no other thread about this in this forum, at least not recently - assuming most people are happy to pay high fees - but I'm not ... I took the initiative to ask "what's going on" and got some nice information here ... you seem to turn this into a personal attack.
I don't know you and I am not interested in knowing your opinion, if you have a minor issue with this thread you don't have to respond nor be an *** about it.
October 30, 2020, 05:26:15 AM
Why are Bitcoin miners not speeding up and expediting the confirmations? Is it for personal gain? in that case that means Bitcoin is centralized and not decentralized because miners can control its fees?
I noticed that there has been more misinformed posts and questions than normal about the mempool, based on a lack of understanding of Bitcoin, how it works, its inticracies, and its "imperfections".
Please research, and understand how it works before posting misstatements, and find out that its "imperfections" actually are caused by important design-decisions that make Bitcoin robust and censorship-resistant.
If you can't explain why the fee is so high and you only say it's only a matter of "supply and demand" so supply and demand cannot explain why the stock market goes up or why it goes down but overall there is a rational to it and overall it does go up like real estate ... however Bitcoin is much more anonymous than the stock market, so I was asking for a rational behind this which so far I didn't get except for the first poster who somehow explained it might be related to China.
Included my post to you for everyone to see the context.
I can explain, but as someone who has a service that pays in Bitcoin, do you actually want to learn and understand how Bitcoin works, and know why the network is the way it is?
Plus yes, it has something to do with "demand and the supply", but not the supply/demand you're thinking about.
Or with that reply, are you simply trolling?
October 30, 2020, 04:31:32 AM
The main problem in this thread is that you've asked something nobody can ever know for sure...
If you ask a question like: how to solve this mathematical equation... Or: i've got a problem with this script... Or: Why do i get error message x... Or: what's the maximum size of a transaction... People can give a definitive answer... Sure, it might be hard, or it might depend on your os, your settings, your version, or other parameters, but people WILL be able to give an anwer.
In your case, you basically asked a question like: who will win the US elections? Sure, people can make educated guesses, but they'll always remain guesses since nobody knows how many people will actually vote, nor do you know who they'll vote for. The only way of answering this question is: wait and see... That's exactly the answer to your question: "Wait and see".
People can make educated guesses based on some parameters (like the shutting down of some chinese miners, or the volatility of the price, or... anything at all), but there is no model nor certainty as to what combination of factors caused the mempool congestion, nor is there certainty about when it'll stop.
Your question basically translates into 2 questions that can never be answered completely:
If you ask a question like: how to solve this mathematical equation... Or: i've got a problem with this script... Or: Why do i get error message x... Or: what's the maximum size of a transaction... People can give a definitive answer... Sure, it might be hard, or it might depend on your os, your settings, your version, or other parameters, but people WILL be able to give an anwer.
In your case, you basically asked a question like: who will win the US elections? Sure, people can make educated guesses, but they'll always remain guesses since nobody knows how many people will actually vote, nor do you know who they'll vote for. The only way of answering this question is: wait and see... That's exactly the answer to your question: "Wait and see".
People can make educated guesses based on some parameters (like the shutting down of some chinese miners, or the volatility of the price, or... anything at all), but there is no model nor certainty as to what combination of factors caused the mempool congestion, nor is there certainty about when it'll stop.
Your question basically translates into 2 questions that can never be answered completely:
- When will all bitcoin users (both present and future) stop broadcasting less transactions in a certain timeframe than miners will be able to put in the blocks they solve. Since there is no way to know all bitcoin users, their plans, their motivations, this question can not be answered
- When will the hashrate rise again: every 2016 blocks, there is a difficulty adjustment so the average time between 2 blocks is once again ~10 minutes. However, if the hashrate drops between 2 retargets, the average time between 2 blocks will be > 10 minutes untill the next retarget. A bigger time between 2 blocks = less space for transactions. We know that the difficulty will retarget every 2016 blocks, however we have no idear about miner's plans... If the hashrate steadily decreases the average time between 2 blocks will be > 10 minutes, if the hashrate steadily increases the avg time will be < 10 minutes
October 30, 2020, 04:29:41 AM
The price has been pretty "stable" in the past 24 hours around $13,200 - $13,500
And the mempool is also 12MB smaller than yesterday.
October 30, 2020, 04:22:22 AM
A bunch of Chinese miners had to turn their rigs off, hash-rate should return over the next few day as they power back up.
Failing this, difficulty adjustment next week should help, reassess then if you can afford to wait for your transactions to go through.
If the mempool fully clears again, take the opportunity to CoinJoin, send to Bech32 addresses (for reduced miner fees), then open a few large lightning channels.
You have to prepare yourself for even higher fees in the future.
Having a fee market is healthy, you have to prevent spamming and incentivize the miners to churn transactions.
Failing this, difficulty adjustment next week should help, reassess then if you can afford to wait for your transactions to go through.
If the mempool fully clears again, take the opportunity to CoinJoin, send to Bech32 addresses (for reduced miner fees), then open a few large lightning channels.
You have to prepare yourself for even higher fees in the future.
Having a fee market is healthy, you have to prevent spamming and incentivize the miners to churn transactions.
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